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andreas

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Posts posted by andreas

  1. Amazing charts on the Mod thread. I love them. I've moved this here - as they seem too good to be true (even though I would so much like them to be).  Why do we believe them  when sceptics (obviously not friends or family as no one on here would be rash enough to tell them) say: "that's not what it says on my BBC / Met Office / [insert app] forecast"? 

  2. 3 hours ago, cheese said:

    A maximum temperature of -12C in Stockholm today. You can only imagine the chaos if we had conditions like this here.

    image.thumb.png.2f10f89695e4743dadd60f185e8a11c7.png

    Wow, lovely photo. Though I remember something similar in Cheltenham back in January 1982 - it was fine, very cold, but not chaos. Maybe the UK infrastructure was more resilient back then though.

     

  3. Hi - I came across this and posted at the start of August - even Shetland can get warm every so often:

    7_dGhlcm1vbWV0ZXJfaWNvbl93ZWF0aGVyMg.jpg
    WWW.RMETS.ORG

    During summer heatwaves or severe winter cold spells, everybody wants to know if such high or low temperatures are unusual, or indeed record-breaking. Given that...

    "A curious British ‘heatwave’ occurred way back on 6 August 1910 when 28 °C was registered in the Shetland Isles, while nowhere elsewhere in the UK exceeded 20 °C. A pulse of warmth from Scandinavia just clipped the Northern Isles."

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    • Insightful 2
  4. 18 minutes ago, cheese said:

    That looks more realistic imo. ECM always hideously underestimates temperatures nationwide (and even GFS is guilty of occasionally undercooking maximum temperatures).

    Hi - thanks for the clarification. So why do the big models underestimate maximum temperatures? If this is a well-known fact, as it seems to be, why are the outputs not adjusted accordingly? 

    • Like 2
  5. 6 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

    Just your average 28 degree dewpoint across the channel, seems to be an increasing theme of high dewpoint values on the euro for some reason, considering 20+ is usually considered rare in the Uk even in the summer its an interesting trend. Maybe some side effect of that marine heatwave we had earlier in the year? 

     

    That's an interesting take - and I can imagine it as entirely plausible as the years go by. On this occasion it looks a little ahead, though, of the temperatures  indicated by the mainstream models. Edit - though having checked again - the chart quoted is from the ECM - and the uppers are really toasty - and things are not as they used to be - so on second thoughts I feel I need to wait and see what happens.

     

    • Like 2
  6. On the Mod thread the discussion of lowest max temperatures for days led to my finding this which I hadn't come across before - how quirky is the weather - especially that 28 degrees in Shetland in August 1910.

    7_dGhlcm1vbWV0ZXJfaWNvbl93ZWF0aGVyMg.jpg
    WWW.RMETS.ORG

    During summer heatwaves or severe winter cold spells, everybody wants to know if such high or low temperatures are unusual, or indeed record-breaking. Given that...

     

    • Thanks 2
  7. 1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

    If I were to guess, I would see 1983, and 84 as the real shift. This followed a bunch of poor summers from 77-82.

    Also, after winter 81/82, we didn’t have a decent cold spell until 84/85. The in between period was milder.

    Yes that feels about right - until then it was hit or miss (mostly miss) whether we'd get a good summer, since then there have almost always been consistent periods with 'warm' (by UK standards) temperatures. Whereas winters have gone the other way.

  8. 2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

    When do you think the shift happened from those colder summers to warmer ones?

    I wouldn't want to put my finger on it, but I know that 1975 and 1976 caused general astonishment and (mostly) delight by how good the weather could be - whereas now they'd almost be regarded as nothing extraordinary.

  9. If it's any consolation, those of us who remember living through the early 1970s had lots of summers like these - evenings when you wrapped up three layers even inside (no fire / heating on of course). Not great, but a certain underlying nostalgia for something which one remembers and has rarely experienced in recent summers. 

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