Darren Bown

Moisture is moving northwards on the radar quite nicely, expecting clouds to bubble up over the next few hours. Still clear skies, though I’m in Stoke currently, moving back up home around 3:30-4:00pm

Glorious sunshine tonight and seems like a pretty good risk of thunderstorms this evening, Metoffice putting them mostly in the east of the region, but all areas are probably around 20-30% risk of a storm from later on this afternoon (some saying possibly from 2pm, but I think more around 4pm onwards).

Estofex risk. 50% lightning and a level 1 across central and southern England and eastern wales .N France and S United Kingdom...Under strong diurnal heating, ~ 10 g/kg mixing ratios and ~ 7 K/km mid-level lapse rates ML CAPE develops up to 1500-2000 J/kg. Although lifting mechanism is not prominent, a belt of weak PVA should help to trigger thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Within the support of moderate instability and ~ 15 m/s DLS, convective cells should evolve into multicell clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation. Small chances for supercells may also provide few large hail events, especially given steep lapse rates in mid-levels. It is expected that thunderstorms will maintain their lightning activity until nighttime hours and move NEwardly.

Here’s Convective Weather’s risk map for tomorrow. They got the last few storm risks correct.

They’ve got the last couple of forecasts correct, and Metoffice are going for thunderstorms tomorrow evening into the night too.

A moderate risk of thunderstorms from convective weather tomorrow

Morning and happy BST! ive noticed that the GFS charts don’t seem to want to bring any cold in for Easter and I have 8c forecast from weds to Sat, which I am fine with! No more cold please ?

Must be much milder this morning as the snow is melting quickly off the grass and it’s very cloudy still.

OK spring can come now. These non events IMBY are tiresome. ?

Morning. Woken up to... a dusting still ?

It’s not surviving... ?

I’m watching that too as that would come over me if it survives the Pennines and Manchester.

Still just a dusting here, sat between the streamers this evening. If it doesn’t snow tonight, then that’s it.

got home from central Manchester after a huge snow shower around 4:15pm, it’s just a dusting here at home, but it’s snowing now. Looks like the shower streams are north and south of here generally.

Is it sticking anywhere? The snow here has been heavy but it quickly melts or evaporated/blows away as the ground is quite dry? I’m thinking it would need to snow after 4/5pm for anything to settle. Is there any indication that it will snow overnight as Metoffice seem to think most of the snow here will be before 5pm?

Wow having a blizzard! Ground is way too warm though and it’s melting quickly.

radar is doing it’s usual job of not telling true intensities in an easterly. Snowing here, but hardly anything on the radar.

morning. The radar looks exactly how it did during the last cold spell. Metoffice seems to think the highest risk of snow IMBY is this afternoon now, and not overnight tonight.

The Pennines are destroying that band, but that was forecast anyway, it’s not surprising.

Im travelling to Manchester from 1pm to 8pm tomorrow for drinks and food, so the journey home might be interesting on the train ?

Warnings are out left, right and centre for tomorrow. Look to be more than the last cold spell!

some hefty showers moving into the south of the region.

Damp and dreary this morning, but quite mild. Looking at the forecast I think it’s crazy that some areas are looking at an 11c drop between maxima on Friday and Saturday (Maidstone, Kent, for example).

Very good ?

It’s extremely windy here. Howling round the house.