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Everything posted by Sprites

  1. Polar Maritime Just seems to be heading back to background levels as it gets dark
  2. Reefseeker If you watch close lightning strikes on YouTube , there are often orange sparks coming from the the object that gets struck. I've seen this myself when a telephone pole (70 metres away ) was hit last year. But the sparks I saw came from the telephone pole that was two poles away from the one that was struck as the lightning travelled along the cable. The workers I spoke to the next day said the lightning destroyed about 600 metres of cable.
  3. Robert1981 Your hailstorm just after 4pm from about 45 miles away.
  4. Haven't seen the radar showing hail for months, until this evening. I'm under the hail on the radar and currently it's light to moderate rain. When we had those large hailstones last month, the radar had no hail
  5. The comet is heading below the horizon out of sight now. Took these two with phone
  6. European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG Extended Forecast Valid: Mon 08 Apr 2024 06:00 to Tue 09 Apr 2024 06:00 UTC Issued: Sat 06 Apr 2024 21:41 Forecaster: TUSCHY A level 1 was issued from France into N-Germany mainly for severe wind gusts, large hail and an isolated tornado threat. SYNOPSIS The main story is a progressive longwave trough just W of Europe. This feature amplifies in response to a digging anticylonic jet along its upstream flank and sharpens throughout the forecast with an impressive amount of shear/curvature vorticity along its base but also next to an embedded vort max, which lifts towards UK. This scenario causes constant height falls from UK/France to the W-Mediterranean. IFS-ENS indicates some probabilites for weak cyclogenesis over the W Mediterranean but also highlights the lifting vortex over UK with tight clustering. A robust lead wave is forecast to cross Benelux/NW Germany during the afternoon into the overnight hours from SW to NE. E of this trough a record shattering subtropical ridge still covers most of the CNTRL Mediterranean with numerous waves cirling this ridge from Scandinavia into Russia. Otherwise a quasi-stationary upper low still sits atop the far E Mediterranean with ongoing unsettled conditions. Along the surface, a broad warm sector over CNTRL Europe gets framed by an eastbound moving meridionally aligned cold front over E Spain into CNTRL France and a wavy warm front, which runs from N France E/NE all the way to N Poland/Belarus. Overall NWP guidance is stable in placing the synoptic features of interest including the lead wave over Benelux. EPS data indicates some uncertainties in how far this French trough will amplify and how far NE the vortex over the UK will move. At LL, IFS indicates a broad low pressure channel, extending E from the English vortex towards Benelux and into N Germany. Embedded potential weak cyclogenesis is indicated by numerous member maxima with weak pressure anomalies. DISCUSSION Due to the extended forecast range we do not yet go into too many details. In general the warm sector over CNTRL Europe will be the main focus for organized DMC activity with the following foci: a) Cold front induced convection over CNTRL France, which evolves during the day along the boundary but also next to the orography (e.g. Massif Central). BL moisture is adequate but suffers from missing Mediterranean input due to the existing African airmass atop the W/CNTRL Mediterranean. Pockets of moderate MLCAPE with plenty of directional and speed shear should support a few NE ward moving supercells with large hail/severe wind gusts from CNTRL France to the south (drier BL with higher LCLs). Further north into the proximity of the warm front, a more humid BL should support also (near) surface based supercells with a growing tornado risk. b) BENELUX into NW Germany. The passing short wave, falling pressure and a northward pushing warm front should be adequate for late afternoon/evening convection. Enhanced moisture pooling along the confluent LL wind field (the warm front) with some background support should assist in at least isolated CI. Kinematics are impressive and organized convection occurs with any structuring updraft. Either large hail for more elevated cells or cells with all kind of severe along/S of the warm front are forecast with initiation depending on mesoscale support. Of growing concern is a 60kt speed max. at 700 hPa, well anticipated from most models and pushing into W-Germany during the afternoon hours with impressive hodographs for well organized mesocyclones. Ongoing isues with CAPE magnitude, insolation (departing DIBS) and still uncertain final magnitude of (synoptic/mesoscale) lift preclude an upgrade for now. This acitivity shifts NE into N-Germany during the night with an ongoing severe risk. We nudged the level 1 into SE UK to account for a temporal untable warm sector with adequate CAPE/shear for organized convection during the day. This however depends on the final mass response to the approaching vortex with ongoing uncertainties in NWP guidance. Still, confidence is increasing and hence the level 1 upgrade for now. c) Lithuania/Latvia into N Belarus. Persistent SW-erly moisture advection beneath colder mid-levels assists in a broad plume of enhanced MUCAPE, overlapping with 15-20 m/s DLS. A passing short wave could support a few nocturnal thunderstorms along the wavy boundary with mainly a large hail and heavy rain threat. Although dust induced cloudiness is more likely in this area, this convective event seems to be decoupled from the BL, so there certainly is a conditional risk for a few organized storms. A level 1 may be needed if confidence in coverage and final CAPE magnitude increases. ... Spain .... This area needs to be monitored regarding diabatic heating as not much modification is needed for a few multicells especially over N-CNTRL Spain with hail and heavy rain. Right now, messy storm mode with low-end CAPE precludes any upgrade for now. ...SE Europe ... Beneath the upper low, scattered thunderstorms are forecast with heavy rain, strong to severe wind gusts and hail. The limiting factor will be reduced CAPE due to the worked-over airmass. A local upgrade may be needed especially over SE Turkey.
  7. Fen Wolf When you were a wolf disguised as a sheep?
  8. Snow tyre That is a small shelf cloud/gust front in the lower part of the photo. The curved dark lines above the shelf cloud are areas of inflow bands/rising air.
  9. 18% RH here sky looks rather dry....surface winds ENE
  10. Jamie M Ah I see , probably some low-topped supercells around today.
  11. Just after midnight into early Sunday morning. This was before the main CME arrived later Sunday. Moon at 99% full
  12. A few photos from the last couple of weeks.
  13. Weather-history I think New Zealand were best placed, it was was mid afternoon in the UK at it's peak.
  14. Fen Wolf The Aurora strength has subsided back down for now. Very unlikely to see anything tonight, even if you're above the clouds. Did you live in Plymouth a while back? I might be confusing you with someone else.
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