kold weather

Not a bad ICON run, with a marginal snow event as the frontal system comes eastwards on the 28th of Jan. Doesn't leave a huge amount though, probably 1-3cms for most, but its something to watch.

Blimey bringing back Ian Brown, that's a deep cut of forum lore! Him and his large teapot...which 2009-2011 rather destroyed. HA m.o.d.e.r.n w.i.n.t.e.r being on the banned list!

Looks like some reports of freezing rain from that precip. Could be quite dangerous out there where that is occuring.

Yeah there is going to be a fair amount of luck required, especially further south you get in order to get the snow in. It does look increasingly likely that the low will be south enough to allow the cold back south pretty readily. Once the cold is established bit gives us alot more breathing space for any marginal setups that occur down the line.

Very cold and icy here this morning, down to -4c so a harsh frost.

Miles better from the ECM, indeed miles better from most runs. Still have the real risk of milser air pumping into England at times but much more surpressed run the n general. GFS ensembles still hinting at rising pressure over scandi later on as well...

Yeah same here Surrey. ECM shows them weakening from now on and turning more to sleet as they come into the region, probably due to a rise in temps in early morning. Still, could see a dusting for northern part of the region.

I wouldn't be happy if that's all we got, because I got pretty shafted with rain;...and rain...and rain! All seriousness though, there is potential (despite my musing in the mod thread!) for our area if we can get a LP to run far enough south.

Yep great GFS para tonight, that's Iike it for sure! The GFS ensembles are hinting at possible back-edge snow as it clears away on the 27th, that maybe the next area to watch. Once again more likely the case in the north but not impossible further south either. ps, I think I'm slightly grumpy because I missed the snow yesterday (especially as places 15 miles north had some!), and I think down here there aren't going to be many chances for snow this winter in this type of pattern, at least the type that actually sticks (aka, not back edge/front edge trash)

I thought that as well, literally the low pressure jumps right over the UK and reforms to the south. I've seen tropical lows do that before, but never a standard low pressure system, very odd!

Ensembles have plenty of potential for snow events say north of say London westwards, some runs form nice little lows that run along the flow, drawing in slightly too warm air into the south but bumping up against the cold further north provides the Midlands with decent falls of snow. Th pattern kinda reminds me of Feb 2010 actually a little, decent for Midlands north, not much cop for the south other than maybe front edge/back edge events.

I've never seen snow from a NW, trust me, I'd remember if I had (I've been on here for 15 years, never happened to me, you must be lucky to be on the 'flight' path of a Chesire streamer then! They always used to miss me when I lived in Essex, though I often saw the convective cloud tops. And no I never dismissed anything, indeed I said that the timing would be important and that the longer it lasted the better the chances for snow would be, especially in the east of the region. It was never really on for my region unfortunately due to it coming a little too early. If I'm critical its only bwcause I know that plenty of areas are going to get snow, and I will get 0 from this set-up, call it jealousy I spose! Then again Daniel, I do hope I wrong! Prove me wrong NW!

Ensembles still messy, but they look good upto 168hrs and then typically start to get worse. As BA said, there is plenty of possibilities for the next 7 days on the models, but on a personal note I just can't get too excited knowing its going to give my location 0cms...and probably 0 flakes as well. There is plenty of potential, especially further north providing the low doesn't end up super north like the 18z GFS operational did!

Could see some, the ECM bring done a small area of wintry mixture in the early hours of tomorrow morning. Looks fairly active still so if it does come down I wouldn't be shocked to see some a little snow make it down here.

Once again just wondering whether the larger/more intense than normal PV lobe is forcing the jet to arch more to the north than you'd expect given the usual forcing. I note the MJO phase 5 does have a lower pressure anomaly over E.Canada, but this looks way more intense and larger than the normal you'd expect for that pattern sand that is forcing the jet more northerly than would otherwise be suggestive with the tropical forcing?

I just want one snow flake...this isn't the type of pattern that is going to deliver it for me. It IS the type of pattern though that could see marginal events crop up at short notice, especially for those further north..I'll just have to stew and get jealous down here instead! I'd love for a NW to break its duck...but 20 years that I can remember the weather, and the NW flow has never delivered so much as a snow flake....

GFS suggests pure rain for nearly all and I tend to agree, it doesn't look quite cold enough for on there. It maybe the case that its lifting up the temperatures/dew points too rapidly, though there is a noteable warm sector with it and 850hpa temps probably the wrong side of marginal for most bar maybe the far north. ICON does go with a front edge snow event, and it lasts longer the further north you are. Major difference appears to be timing, GFS comes through in the daytime = rain, the ICON at night, and brings in more of a wintry mix. I'm betting I'm still snowless though this time next week if the charts remain as they are. PS - if the 18z is right, our chances of getting the long hoped for sustained cold are near enough 0 for the first half of Feb...

Decent run for the NW again from the 18z, and at least its not a total mildfest. Also some decent snow coming in from the breakdown around 156hrs as well for most of us, even if it is only a brief quickfire 2-4cms before lots of rain.

Mild across the whole of Europe on the 240hrs due to that LP getting stuck over our shores and pumping in milder air. An easterly at that point would be next to useless! EDIT - back to yet another NW airflow, probably no worse than an easterly in terms of cold! Ah well, no snow for me this winter

Ok so evolution to watch for is for our upper ,low to weaken, for a slider low to come down and for pressure to rise to its north/north-east in its wake. Doubtful anything too cold will come from it but may still be enough?

I've been banking on the 5-10th of Feb for a little while, though if we can't get a better pattern before that there may not be much deep cold to actually tap into given how mild E.Europe/Russia looks. ps, here comes the westerly push of the jet because of the PV over Canada again at 216hrs, to move away our UK upper low that is stuck in situ (imagine that upper low 500 miles SE, that would be a long lasting NE flow, we are still on a global scale closeish to it.

Very much so, though I had hoped it would be adjusted to the south, not to the north like tonights models have done! That upper low over us is going nowhere fast and we are wasting good cold time here! Especially given the decent pattern upstream around 144hrs, what a waste that 18z GFS is!

The only way we will have a quick evolution into cold (aka this time next week) is IF the PV lobe doesn't split off and move into the Atlantic. Every single OP and ensemble I've seen that sends the energy into the Atlantic ends up with a mild spell across a fair chunk of the country...though IMO the 18z GFS is overdoing this. If that happens then we will need to wait for the next pluse of ridging high pressure from the Azores to flatten the whole lot SE and try to build a Scandi high from there...probably would be a milder variation of an easterly though (aka -5/6/7C type temps, marginal at its best).

Depends on whether there is any mechanism to shove it back southwards. It never happened on the 12z GFS until the whole toppled. Hopefully it doesn't take that again to get the cold southwards.

Agreed upstream is better, just a shame all the cold air is shifted away by that large upper low heading our way. I think we may get a decent upper ridge this time which should help to push the upper low near the UK to the south enough to reintroduce colder air, at least for some. If we could just get this first low a good 500 miles south from where it actually is, we will be game on about a week earlier than likely will be the case on this run!