devonhammer
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Posts posted by devonhammer
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Last year was mostly a lesson in how much the preceding week matters. If anything we should be looking at a forecast for a fortnight rather than the five days so that we know what the ground will be like.
Great to have your Glastonbury forecasts back @J10, can't wait for the first one.
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Glad to hear you're on it again.
Let the madness begin...
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Thanks for all your work J10, massively appreciated
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Actually, just checked BBC weather for Pilton tomorrow, it shows light rain between 8am and 9am, rest of the day cloudy until 3pm when the sun pops his head out....Can anyone confirm as we all know how accurate the Beeb can be sometimes...
Most forecasts have rain, but not a lot.
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J10, thanks for your updates. There are many people hanging on your every word, even if there aren't many comments.
It looks like a nightmare to predict this year. If the lows stay a bit further North is could be completely dry and a bit further South, we could have substantial rain. It looks pretty likely that we'll have some rain, but pretty unlikely that it will be huge amounts. I'd rate this as a 5, but it's all to play for.
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The GFS run this morning looks poor, but the ensemble shows it as a bit of an outlier and most of the other runs look OK.
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Following a year off, I was trying to resist this until mid June, but it's like a drug. I know for a fact that any prediction made now is near-pointless, but still I check :-(
As always, thanks for your efforts JackOne
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I've been a 'lurker' on these forums for many years and find the whole place quite addicitive. I wonl;t confess I know half of what many of you discuss, but as time goes on I learn more. I've always had a big interest in the weather and as I'm attending Glastonbury this year (my 12th starting in 1979) and having endured a miserable one in 2011, I thought I;d follow this thread!
Correct me if I've got this wrong but it seems as though at the moment it's pretty much in the balance for the Glasto weekend. I can live with that, anything other than the mud and rain we had in 2011. I'm especially watching the Saturday as the Stones are playing and I've followed them since the 70's and it will prbably be the last time I see them (no pun intended) so I'm hoping for a nice warm summers evening
You can't possibly do a weather forecast this far out. All that we have so far is variations on the norm for the month, so the UK might be a little bit drier than average and a little bit warmer than average and this can still hold true whatever weather we have at the festival.
You'll get some idea from 14 days out, more data from 10 days out, a pretty good idea at 5-7 days out and a proper forecast at 3 days out (although 3 days out from the Sunday is the Thursday when most people are already there). There are several different sources of data and so the more these align, the more confidence there will be and the accuracy of the forecasts will be better further out in time.
Of course, this is all pointless really, because we know it will be sunny
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does it? I'll try and find that then.
I can't get the 9 panel (9 day) forecasts on Unisys. All the links go to the same 4 panel US forecasts.
Have a look at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
Just pick the chart type from the drop down box and the time from the grid
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Unisys seems fine to me now, but doesn't is just repackage GFS data anyway?
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Oh yes, and welcome back to everybody else as well!
Welcome back WoW. You've been unmasked on the GlastoWatch forum and so now we all know what you look like :-)
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Time to get excited about Glastonbury when the JackOne forecast start!
I'm going to hold off on optimism until we get into GFS range at least.
Welcome back everyone.
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Review for the benefit of JACKONE:
Thursday had thick sticky mud, Friday had persistent drizzle, Saturday was dry and Sunday was hot.
This was not a mudbath on the scale of the bad years in the 90's. By Sunday the majority of the site was actually baked earth. There were patches of mud, but you'd be a fool to get really muddy on Sunday.
The problem particularly up until Saturday morning was actually that not all that much volume of water had fallen and rather than wet mud we were mostly walking through clay which stuck to your boots and got very tiring. If I was to rate the weather alone and not look down then I'd call it a five at worst. Saturday evening was clear and warmer. Sunday was like 2010. Friday's headline slot had rain throughout, but it wasn't a problem as U2 seemed to thrive on it (I imagine it would have cause Beyonce a lot more issues).
If the ratings are based on conditions (weather and underfoot) then it would be a very difficult system. It actually would have been easier to get about if the mud had been a bit wetter, but then there would have been more areas of standing water. On this basis, I think it's best to just rate the weather and let people use their own experience to decide what it will do to the site. Also site conditions were very dependant on how well they had spread the hay and wood chippings.
All things considered I think JACKONE's forecast was good this year. He never strayed outside the 5-6 range and I think that's a fair reflection of the weather we got.
Don't forget to take next year off Jack, and thank you very much for providing this service.
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Final daily update:
JackOne: Thursday mostly dry, Friday showers in the evening, Saturday possibility of rain, Sunday dry and sunny.
TWO: Light showers Thursday afternoon, light showers Friday afternoon developing into rain overnight, largely dry Saturday with clear sky for sunset, dry Sunday .
Meteox: Showers Thursday and Friday, dry and warm Saturday and Sunday.
Meteo: Showers Thursday and Friday night, dry Saturday and Sunday.
GFS Ensemble: Showers overnight on Friday, otherwise dry.
Met Office: Showers overnight on Friday, otherwise dry.
ECM: Showers overnight on Friday, otherwise dry.
YR.NO:Showers afternoon and overnight on Friday, otherwise dry.
Got to rush. Have a good one and massive thanks to JACKONE.
Normalcaveats apply:
1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather
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Festival forecasts on Twitter from Ian Ferguson (BBC South West weatherman):
Improving now for afternoon; a shower or two but mostly dry; sunny spells & breezy; 18C. Dry this eve & tonight. Lows 2nite 11C
Outlook: Thurs: Few early showers but largely dry; sunny spells; dry eve; 17C. Fri: Dry, bright start but rain arriving later.
Outlook Cont'd: Rain thro Fri eve into night; clearing E. Sat: Mostly cloudy but dry; warmer; 20C. Sun: Dry, warm & humid; 23C.
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JackOne: Wednesday wet, Thursday to Sunday dry. Score of 5.5
TWO: Rain all day today, heaviest at lunchtime. Showers Thursday lunchtime, showers Friday night, occasional shower Saturday, dry, sunny and cloudless on the aptly names Sunday.
Meteox: Rain today, showers Thursday and Saturday.
Meteo: Showers through the day today. Very light showers on Thursday, showers overnight on Friday night and into Saturday. Dry on Sunday.
GFS Ensemble: Rain today and Saturday, otherwise dry.
Met Office: Rain Wednesday, showers Friday, rain Friday night, otherwise dry.
ECM: Rain today and Saturday, otherwise mostly dry.
YR.NO:Showers decreasing during the day today, showers Thursday lunchtime and afternoon. Dry Friday, showers Saturday afternoon. Dry and sunny on Sunday
Pretty much in agreement. It will rain today and be heaviest at lunchtime. We will then see showers on Thursday and Saturday. Sunday will have Sunshine and be warm to hot.
Normal caveats apply:
1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather
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I'm very jealous. My pass away from childcare etc. is only valid for three and a half days and so I'll be onsite on Thursday afternoon even though my tent was pitched yesterday
I'll keep posting updates each morning until Thursday, so have a look if you've got a smartphone. I'll make it more specific for the day ahead from now on.
Have a great festival everyone and thanks to JACKONE (in case I forget in my rush to leave on Thursday)
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Report in The Guardian follows the showers for a few days, dry for a few days theme.
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Up to 30 on Sunday?! Yikes!
Not sure where that came from as that report is based on GFS data and GFS have max temps of 16 on Wednesday and Thursday, 18 on Friday, 19 on Saturday, and 22 on Sunday. Suits me as long as it is largely dry
[Edit] Just had another look and the 30 degrees is a "feels like" value. I've always found these a bit weird as 22 degrees in the sun feels like 22 degrees in the sun. At no point do I think "This feels like 30 degrees in the shade"
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Netweather Festival Forecast updated. Showers through to Saturday. Scorchio Sunday. These showers are light though. We are NOT looking at a washout.
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Probably needs updating. This was posted 28 minutes ago -
A spokesperson for the Met Office said Wednesday and Thursday (June 23) will see a mixture of sunshine and
showers
When the event gets under way officially on Friday (June 24), fans can expect sunny spells, “though it will be turning cloudy with some light rain through the eveningâ€.
But in a revision of previous forecasts, Saturday will be “warm and humid†with the odd heavy
shower
while Sunday will see the “best of the weekend weatherâ€.
“It will be a warm and
with temperatures up to 23 degrees,†the spokesperson said.
I'm getting pretty confident on this scenario. Worst of the weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Largely dry from Friday to Sunday, but with the odd light shower. At no point will there be a downpour and there will not be a mudbath. This year won't be a memorable year either way for the weather.
Latest GFS run (06z) has showers all the way through to Saturday lunchtime. Still on the boundary of high and low pressure.
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BBC weather currently predicting for Glastonbury -
Occasional showers on Thursday will give way to drier and brighter weather on Friday, before further wet and windy weather spreads in from the west on Saturday.
I've just decided to develop colour blindness. I can't see red, which is a shame, but that forecast is great.
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JackOne:Some rain or showers possible up to Thursday and possibly Friday, looking drier and more settled over the weekend, with a chance of some warmer weather. The score remains a 6 (0=dustbowl, 10=mudbath) , no dustbowl, and no mudbath,
TWO: Light showers every day except Sunday, which is dry
Meteox: Rain on Wednesday, showers on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday are dry
Meteo: Showers every day except Friday and Sunday which are dry
GFS: Showers Tuesday, rain Wednesday, and then largely dry.
GFS Ensemble: Showers on Thursday and Saturday, otherwise dry. Pressure increasing from Wednesday to Saturday
Met Office (charts here- select FAX): Showers today, rain Wednesday and then largely dry. The charts show a warm front hitting Saturday lunchtime which will probably have showers ahead of it.
ECM: Rain on Tuesday and Wednesday and then largely dry
YR.NO: Showers on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday morning and Saturday. Otherwise dry.
There is obvious agreement that we will have showers. There is also broad agreement that the worst of the rain will be very early on and the weekend will be largely dry. What will swing this is the location of the high and low pressure systems. We are right on the edge. If you look at the charts here and here you will see what I mean. (The estimated rainfall for this is here) If we were in the Isle of Man we'd be soaked, if we were in Northern France we'd be sunbathing.
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A friend went down today to put up our tents (he's a medic, so I get nice camping
). He went onsite for a look around and said the ground is holding up well. It's a bit muddy at the side of the paths, but generally it's fine. Hopefully if most of the rain falls when no-one's there it will run straight into the stream and away.I'm cautiously optimistic for a reasonably dry year. Some showers, but the main days of mass migration on Fri-Sat should be largely dry.
). He went onsite for a look around and said the ground is holding up well. It's a bit muddy at the side of the paths, but generally it's fine. Hopefully if most of the rain falls when no-one's there it will run straight into the stream and away.
Glastonbury 2017, 21-25 June
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I used to respect and even admire you, and now this. Breaks my heart