devonhammer
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Posts posted by devonhammer
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Jack
I've been posting morning updates on as many sources as I could (Yours,GFS, Ensemble,ECM, TWO etc) on the eFestivals forum. I'm inclined to do that here, but I'm concious that this is your thread. If you don't want me to do this then let me know.
Also, I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the models I use. I've tried to make sure they all come from separate data with yours being the only exception, but it can be hard to check this.
Anyway, I'll do a post in the morning if I don't hear otherwise.
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Going by GFS/GEFS, very much a 4, looking increasingly settled over the weekend, as has been the trend for recent days.
However ECM a bit ropier.
http://www.netweathe.../ecm500.168.png to start with
http://www.netweathe.../ecm500.192.png not too bad, slack low pressure with High Pressure looking to build from the South West.
http://www.netweathe.../ecm500.216.png Friday itself quite settled. but look at the shortwave just to the west of the UK, very ominous.
http://www.netweathe.../ecm500.240.png Back settled again
I don't buy the movement from 216 to 240 at all. If t+216 occurred, that shortwave could mean heavy rain on the Friday night.
However GFS/GEFS does look a bit more consistent at the moment, and there are signs of higher pressure even here, but that's why I have gone for 5.5 and not 4.
To be honest, I called it as a 5 based on the charts, but your post got me optimistic.
My main concern is that I trust ECM far more than GFS, however the ensembles are balancing that out. Plus that T+216 does look odd. Here's hoping that Friday will fall into line.
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It's a good forecast. It looks like a 4 to me, but I'm always over-optimistic.
As predicted. If I could forecast the weather with the same accuracy as my over-optimism, I'd be rich.
5.5 not bad though. Heading in the right direction. Let's see a good ECM next and it will all start to fall into place.
PS Great emoticons here
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It's a good forecast. It looks like a 4 to me, but I'm always over-optimistic.
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STICK!!
If it twists, can it be towards us rather than away from us?
If those verified, we could see any earlier m*d dry up by the main weekend even ....
I'm desperately awaiting JackOne's forecast. Surely a 5?
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I wonder how JACKONE's Forecast compares to one PWS have issued today
Tonight's models suggest HP in charge so PWS could be wrong, which woudn't suprise me
Yes, I've no idea how they do their forecasts. Seem a bit like headline grabbers to me.
And to have the cheek to call themselves Positive
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On the latest GFS 12z run it looks like a damp start, but high pressure pushing in for a dry Fri-Sun. Not bad at all. Will be interesting to see what JackOne makes of this.
I'll post a roundup each morning of the various forecasts to supplement JackOne's evening posts, as I was wont to do on another forum, but I absolutely do not have the knowledge of JackOne.
Normal caveats apply:
1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather
2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days
3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect
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The good now is that it looks like it could go either way. Until a few days ago, the lows just kept on coming off the Atlantic, but now it looks like they could be pushed further North.
A couple more good runs and I bet we see a 5 or even a 4.
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I'm very pessimistic. Trying to stay positive on the eFestivals forum, but realistically it's not looking good.
Plenty of time to change though. Lets see what the ECM say after the weekend.
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http://forum.netweat...1-gfs-6th-june/ is the first daily update for Glastonbury.
Thanks for this. A lot of people will be hanging on your every word for the next few weeks.
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I'm fearing it too Gavin. I know, rationaly speaking, that it's pretty difficult to predict with any accuracy at all at this very early stage, what the second half of June** will be like.
**'Second half' meaning 18-30 June, at least from my selfish POV/179,000 other Someret going people's selfish POV!!!
Remember that last year the forecasts for Glastonbury were all over the place at this stage. I think we got too optimistic from GP's prediction and we should forget that and just accept that FI forecasts are just that.
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http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html shows the performance of the main short and medium term models, I don't know if similar analysis has been carried out on the CFS.
Thanks for that, I had a search around on their site and found lots of model analysis. Interesting stuff. It definitely shows that the EC forecast is superior to all others. UKMO is typically slightly better than GFS, but this is based on the entire Northern Hemisphere. Would people agree that UKMO is more accurate in the UK and GFS is more accurate in the US? The article here shows BBC forecasts (UKMO) as being much worse than AccuWeather (GFS) in the US and so would bear this out, but what do people think?
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This is very good news, both in terms of the weather for Glastonbury and for Summer generally. I rate Stewart'a forecasts very highly as they gave been very accurate in the past.
Thanks for that. On a technical point, does the CFS data do a "traditional" forecast - I studied meteorology over 20 yrs ago and we made a prediction based on current conditions, then made a prediction based on that and so on until you reach the target time, hence any slight error can become magnified and long range forecasts are all but impossible. Stewart's forecast is obviously looking at underlying climate events and so is not a weather forecast in the traditional sense, but is looking at how El Nino/La Nina and Atlantic temperature affect pressure systems on a wider scale. Therefore there is a marked contrast between the two predictions.
Is this correct, or am I barking up the wrong tree?
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What do you make of Stewart Rampling's Summer forecast and how will that affect your Glastonbury forecasts?
Glastonbury 2011
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
You're going about it the right way. If you read the book and apply the knowledge you gain to the charts then you will increase your understanding. As for software, that has two uses:
Firstly generating the data. That would require a supercomputer, not a Mac (plus access to weather satellite data). So that one's out.
Secondly, you could use a computer model to take data from GFS, ECM etc. and turn that into a weather prediction (rain, wind, temp etc.). That's what most weather websites do. I'm not aware of any software to do this.
To be honest, I'm a bit old school. I studied meteorology 20 years ago, so we did a lot of it manually and computer models seemed pretty cutting edge at the time. This may well have changed and there could be consumer software, but I doubt it - it's an awful lot of processing.
What's great though is that you've got an interest in what it all means. Glastonbury has rekindled an interest in meteorology for me. I'm re-learning, remembering and learning new things all the time and I expect this to continue into July and beyond.