devonhammer

If there's any chance of rain then avoid the low lying areas like Oxlyers, the bottom of Pennards, Park Home and head up the hill a bit. To be honest I camp in the medics field which is miles away, but on the top, but I used to camp in the Wicket Ground corner in the '90's. That seems to be mostly hospitality, disabled and family now though, but I've got friends who still camp in that neck of the woods, so it's not all cordoned off. If you try to get close to the action then it will inevitably be very crowded and probably quite flat and low lying, so camp further out, get stuff for the day and use the lock ups to avoid carrying it all around. If you ask on the gate they will tell you where there is likely to be space, but have a plan because you don't want to wander around the site carrying all your beer, tent, food, etc. There's probably someone who has more recent experience, but certainly go for a bit of a slope.

The GFS 12z is out and it follows the theme of a wet Wednesday and Thursday followed by a largely dry Friday to Sunday (with some showers). Although this follows the previous theme I still lack confidence because we are right on the verge of high and low pressure. If the low pressure pushes North-West 100 miles we'll have great weather; if the low pushes South-East 100 miles then.....

Latest (06z) GFS run has a ridge of high pressure on Friday, but this is forced South because of the high over Greenland and the next low coming off the Atlantic although it does re-establish itself on Saturday afternoon. This could see showers on every day, some heavy, some persistent, although we could see some sunshine on Friday morning, Saturday and Sunday. At this late stage it is still all to play for as we are caught between a high and a low. I'm sticking with a showery run up until Wednesday followed by a largely dry Thursday to Sunday, but with occasional showers.

Starting to get beyond being a bit of idle fun now and getting proper forecasts. Here's this morning's summary: JackOne: While a full scale a mudbath or washout is also very unlikely, we are likely to more mud than dust, so on this basis a 6. (out of 10, lower is better) TWO: Rain Monday and Wednesday. Showers Saturday evening and Sunday. Meteox: Rain Wednesday and Thursday. Light showers Fri-Sun. Meteo: Dry Friday and Sunday, otherwise showers. GFS Ensemble: Rain Tuesday, dry Friday, otherwise showers. Rising pressure from Thursday. Met Office and charts: Rain Monday then pretty much dry until rain on Saturday and Sunday on their report, but a dry Saturday and probable dry Sunday on their charts and so I think the report is due an update. ECM: Rain on Wednesday which will clear and could be dry after (but risk of rain on Saturday) YR.NO: Showers every day, but rain on Saturday. CountryFile (47 minutes in) Rain on Monday and Wednesday, otherwise dry. I'll only put the CountryFile forecast in once as it's weekly. It is based on Met Office data, but they have professionals analysing it and so I've included it. In summary, I think there will be some rain before the festival and then rain on the Wednesday. Friday, Saturday and Sunday should be largely dry, but with the chance of a brief shower. ECM and UKMO both have low pressure for Wednesday, but high pressure for Friday to Sunday and so this is looking increasingly likely. I imagine the busy paths will be thick (rather than wet) mud, but you'll be able to sit on the slopes. If they put down straw again where there's no metal/concrete walkway it might be fine. Normal caveats apply: 1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather 2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days 3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

Where do you work? On site status updates have to be worth a plug.

I'm getting more optimistic that the worst of the rain might have missed the site. It looks OK on the radars with just showers, but it would be interesting to hear what's actually going on if anyone is on site or nearby. I'm likely to be away from PCs for the weekend, so I'm pretty unlikely to do a morning update on Saturday or Sunday, but will do Monday to Wednesday next week. Here's hoping for a good Countryfile report (and a few good JackOne reports of course)

From the NME: Dramatic headline, but maybe not too bad?

Rain, rain, more rain and then right at the end he says there are some signs of improvement for next weekend, but too far away to tell.

The ECM is not as bad from mid Thu onwards, so all to play for. I agree that sun and showers are most likely though. On the wellies, I just don't agree with them ever, but I'll be packing full waterproofs, no doubt.

If it was dry for the next week, then it would probably be OK, but we'll have to see how well the drainage works in the run up. In my opinion walking boots are almost always the way to go. I went in 97 and 98 with walking boots and gaiters and never had a problem. If you see someone in mismatched gaiters and a green buffalo jacket (best bit of festival kit) it might be me.

Michael Fish forecast. Mostly about the weekend, but does mention events including the Nettle Eating Championships. No music festivals in the foreseeable future I guess? Paul's Post The last sentence gives at least some grounds for slight optimism.

That's just the editor being ironic because of the name of his publication. As high pressure doesn't seem to be willing to help, I'm experimenting with ridges of optimism to keep low pressure at bay. It can be hard though in the face of some of the evidence.

Looking at the satellites, there is a chance that the worst of today's rain will head up the English Channel and only really affect the South Coast (of the South West). Certainly still dry on the North Coast of Devon now. This could be a massive plus for the conditions for the start of the festival if it comes off. I don't expect it to be dry today, but it could be much drier than predicted. Everyone has it raining now (from Metcheck to UKMO) and according to the web cam it isn't, so let's see. (this could be a case of extreme optimism)

The latest GFS run is not good at all. The low that I was hoping would go further North has gone further South. Largely wet from this, with substantial rain on Saturday. Still time for it to change. Let's see what it looks like on Sunday. I tend to set up my tent on Sunday (friend of a medic) and then head down on Thursday because this is the longest I can get a pass away from the wife and kids. We used to go together and I fear the day when this situation gets reversed.

Here's my update for today: JackOne: On the basis that there could be 3 or 4 dry days, I am going for a 5, and if it wasn't for the GFS 12Hz outlier run, it would be lower than 5 (lower numbers are better) GFS: Rain Monday. Over the festival there is a reasonable chance that it will be limited to a few showers early on. There is a low which tracks to the North and it needs to stay that way (or go further North). TWO: Rain Thursday and Saturday morning (could be early hours which would be OK as there's not that much). Meteox: Lots of rain in the run up. Showers over the festival. Meteo: Rain Monday. Showers Wednesday and Thursday. GFS Ensemble: Looking OK. Rain Mon/Tue, but then dry over the festival and pressure slowly rising. Met Office: Changeable and windy. Not a true daily update at this stage. ECM: Optimistically, it could be dry Thu-Sat. YR.NO: Rain Monday. Showers until Friday. Summary: Firstly, there is still no consensus and I don't really expect one until the storm has passed over today and tomorrow. Over the festival I expect it to be cloudy with a risk of showers at all times, but the serious risk of showers is on Wednesday and Thursday. The true test is how well the drainage copes with very likely rain today/tomorrow and likely rain on Mon/Tue. [edit] That seems a bit downbeat. I actually think that any showers on Fri-Sun will be light and possibly at night, if any at all. Normal caveats apply: 1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather 2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days 3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

I go later than most and so won't be onsite until Thursday evening, but if you want updates then, I'll send them along. If you do updates once it's started could you do a brief statement at the beginning or end in bold so it's easy to see with a smartphone. That would be great.

I'd have put that worse than a 5 and I'm an optimist. I think I need to avoid being swayed by the latest run. Still all to play for. Lets hope we get some good news in the morning.

The GFS 12z run is terrible: I'm not expecting a 5 from JackOne tonight. I'm quit concerned with exactly what number he'll give it. Although the 6z was great so maybe that will even it out a bit.

Average UK rainfall for all of June is about 65mm, but some areas like East Anglia only get 400mm in a year. 16mm is heavy rain, you wouldn't want to be out in it, but you won't be needing sand bags. My worry is what it will do to the site. I don't know anything about this, but if you visualise 16mm of water in a tray across the site being dropped, it will run down the steep bits and either reach a stream or collect in flat bits - now how flat are the flat bits and how good is the new drainage they talk about almost every year? I don't know the answer to this and I'll be interested to see what happens Monday. Also, as has been posted on the Model Output Discussion thread, there is a lot of energy in the system coming over tomorrow, so expect the models to be inconsistent until it has passed. Currently the models are predicting through this, but from Sunday they will be predicting based on the conditions after it and we should get a good idea.

Wait until tomorrow. There will be a lot of rain on Friday and Saturday. Just have to hope the drainage can cope

If I said this Friday, I mean tomorrow, if not then I mean the festival. Sorry for any confusion The latest GFS run is very good indeed: We just need the ECM to agree.

There's a discussion about the models here. Essentially the main models that we use are UKMO (UK Met Office), ECM (essentially the EU Met Office) and GFS (essentially the US Met Office). The 00z/00hz or anything of the sort is the time the model is run; 00z is midnight and then GFS runs at 6am, 12 nnon and 6pm. Other models are less frequent. I've put other models on here as well just to give a more complete idea for the festival and to look for consistency between models (and hence a higher liklihood of accuracy). Most data is available on this site here. There is more data on http://www.wetterzentrale.de however it is in German. Questions are good. I'll answer to the best of my ability, but I studied meteorology 20 years ago and only came back to it through the Glastonbury topic, therefore there are much more knowledgeable people than me around.

Gibby posted that on NetWeather here, but good news stories are worth posting everywhere

I believe I'm correct in saying that no, he doesn't go and yes, it is a wonderfully selfless and generous thing he's doing.

Here's an update of the major models I could find. I've also recapped JackOne's forecast from last night: JackOne: So GES/GEFS gives a 4, with ECM giving a 7, so I'll split the difference and go for a 5.5 on a scale of 0=dustbowl, and 10=washout. [Note] Later upgraded to a 5. GFS: Heavy rain this Friday. Rain Monday. Over the festival there is a battle between a high to the South West and a low to the North East. Could be completely dry, but could easily also be continuous drizzle. TWO: Heavy rain this Friday. Showers Thursday, rain Friday, then dry. Meteox: Heavy rain this Friday. Showers and rain throughout Meteo: Heavy rain this Friday. Rain on Wednesday, light showers Thursday, then dry GFS Ensemble: A few more runs have rain now, but by no means certain (except this Friday, when it will almost certainly rain) Met Office: Changeable and windy. Not a true daily update at this stage. ECM: Not good at all. YR.NO:As well as the heavy rain on Friday/Saturday, there is heavy rain on Monday, rain on Wednesday and Thursday and a few showers on Friday and Saturday. While there is somewhat mixed output, this looks much worse than yesterday. On JackOne's scale I'd give this a 7. There is a very real possibility of a wet start and then insufficient temperatures to dry it out. Having said that, there is no consistency. The models aren't agreeing with each other and are changing dramatically from one run to the next, so all still to play for. PS I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather. JackOne's forecasts are more likely to be right than mine.