Are we in a virtually identical state to the lead up of the winter of 2008-2009??
For those of you who don't know, 2008-2009 was the first of the real cold winters we have seen recently, snow fell in London on the last few days of October I believe, the first week or so of December saw a real cold spell in Northern England especially the Pennines (29th November to 5th December)
January was another cold and pretty snowy month in the usual locations; Scotland and Northern England; where about 5 days where snowy,
Then of course there was February where the snow and cold was much more widespread and heavy.
Anyway, talking of that Winter, for those relying on the CFS models, they messed up 2008-2009 big time.
Here is the models as of September 2008
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200809/images/euT2mProbMon.gif
^ alright I suppose except for the average forecast February
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200810/images/euT2mProbMon.gif
^ Models in October 2008, even more incorrect
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200811/images/euT2mProbMon.gif
^ November models, one month away from the first cold spell in December, what are the models playing at?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200812/images/euT2mProbMon.gif
^ models are taking the mick now!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200901/images/euT2mProbMon.gif
^ January a touch better but February is just totally wrong!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200902/images/euT2mProbMon.gif
^ All very correct, but its too late now!
So, if ever your planning on using the rather long range CFS models, always wait till a few weeks before hand, after all the independent forecasters have issued their thoughts.
All very incorrect