CJWRC
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Posts posted by CJWRC
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I think the only way a long range forecast or any weather forecast for that matter is a computer model that takes into account every single variable possible, no matter how small, of course it may be thousands of years before we know all of these variables.
LRF's will get better gradually with time. if you look where the internet was 20 years ago and where it is now, theres no reason long range models can't go through the same transformation.
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Since when have the odds ever had any effect on the weather?
It's not exactly a teleconnection. We should just look at it as any other year and look at whats going to influence our weather patterns. Odds and statistics do not effect the year thats coming!
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Cheers for the info paul! Tought i had a virus there for a minute , lol.
Thanks
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You're not posting in Welsh are you?
LOL i can barely speak irish never mind welsh, I edited them out
but they looked like </br></br>, i seen them in other posts aswell
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Has this happenned to anybody else and how do you fix it?were on your name the drop down menu My Profile etc come down and wont go back up?
Yep it has happened to me too, tis a bit annoying!
EDIT: What are all these weird letters appearing in my post?
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LOL!
Ice is not getting 'thicker', this will be answered when we get this years 'IceBridge' data and when C'2 comes on line. Patience my pretty.....
As an aside , how did the perennial in the Beaufort sea fare this year? (this is the 3rd sea section where the 'old perennial' used to reside and the south is where Prof B. found his 'rotten ice' [much to his surprise]). Maybe check C.T.'s 'area' plot for Aug? report back when you have an answer eh?
LOL. The only evidence available suggest it is getting thicker. There is NO evidence to suggest is getting thinner. But the only evidence shows a substantial increase in ice thickness. Post facts that will counter my claims.
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Hey Gray-Wolf!!
Remember how you have been shouting on about ice thickness constantly over the last few years because ice extent has been contradicting your views.
Well I presume you've never actually looked at thickness data because if you did you would see that ice has been getting THICKER!! I'm sure you never actually looked at the data because I doubt you would lie to us.
US NAVY SAYS ICE IS GETTING THICKER: Ice Getting thicker!
Facts win again!
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A brief review of August's weather stats for Ireland by Met Eireann http://met.ie/metadm...le/aug10sum.pdf
Thanks NDS,
Interesting to see a low of 0.6c at gurteen and a grass min of -1.9c at casement, both on the 30th.
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I saw it too. There is a russian supply rocket up with it at the moment. AFAIK it was docking so it was running ahead of the ISS but at slower speed so the ISS wil catch up and then they will dock.
I think it has to be done this way as the ISS can't change it's speed instantly but the rocket can, so if something went wrong the rocket could pull away in front, not possible if approaching from the rear.
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To say that the north atlantic current is gone is very misleading , given the fact that has mearly just a small slow down, if anything those sattelite images show a pick up in the last 2 weeks.
LOL, this will be added to the long line of scaremongering ploys that have taken palce in the last 10 years.
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Yes , 'extent' is deeply flawed if used by folk who do not fully understand what it shows and who do not check to see how much more than 15% per pixel the ice cover is.
I'm afraid I think you fall into this category G.W
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Again I'll emphasise that we are now entering the time that has recently been dominated by the collapse and spread of the decaying 'old perennial' as witnessed br Dr Barber this time last year. This (I believe) had skewed the end of past melt seasons by giving the impression of ice melt slow down when in fact it was really part and parcel of the continued melt.
This year there is little or no ice to fullfil this role (it all collapsed ,spread and melted) the last of Dr Barbers S. Beaufort ice melted out in July (as noted by NSIDC).
If I am correct we will see a number of high loss days (well beyond the recent average?) as ice on it's last legs melts out.
The L.P. over the pole will bring winds and swell with it and this will bath all that fragmented thin ice across the central pole and Siberian side whilst pushing the Canadian side Fram wards.
If you took a sheet of ice and splashed water all over it what would it do? (the clue here is 'water')
So ,come a week from now I'm gonna look back over the week and see how many 'daily records' have been set (or not!) and report back.
Sub 5 million now looking a given? Who'd have thought after such a high start point this spring? (me!)
Are you having a laugh , we are still a above six million , by what method do you your arrive at the conclusion that sub 5 million is a given?
Oh yeah... your method, that would explain it!
EDIT: Put your cursor over where 5 million sqkm would be and then you would see the sort of totally unprecedented drop we would need to get there!
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The average melt over the last 5 days has been exactly 45,000km2/day, compared to the 02-09 average from 16-31st August of 36320km2/day. I imagine the average melt rate drops off as we progress through the month, so we're not doing too badly at the moment. As ever, it will be something of a battle between ice moving through Fram and the new CA channels, and the early refreeze which looks possible this year.
I think anyone expecting to see melt rates of over 100,000km2 for consecutive days is going to be disappointed, as I doubt that's occurred this late in the summer for any of the past 8 years.
Thanks for the info NDS. With some the talk going on here over the last week or so , it was hard not to be worried that we would se a sub 4million km2.
A few on here might have egg on their face alright , but I certainly doubt anybody will be dissapointed , or atleast I really hope they won't. If some on here are dissapointed that the arctic is doing better than expected , well then we should really not listen to anything they have to say!
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It is also very important remember that it hasn't been this warm for 3000 in that particular area , this is not an idicator for an entire globe.
For example some areas have seen cooling over the last 30 years , so if in 2000 years they warm up and snow patches are disvovered you can't say today was a very cold period in earth.
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Up again... Current 16.050 mil km (anom + 1.591)
Really is like a runaway train at the moment , ehat figure do you think it will end up at , a new record?
As was posted before temperatures have been on a downward trend in antartica over the last thirthy years aswell , this seems to be the cause of the build up in ice. Really dispells any nonsence about warmer temps causing ice shelfs to break away.
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Com'on now! As mentioned loads of times already over the last few weeks, that was for just 80N, which is probably little more than 1/3 of the Arctic Ocean. It doesn't represent the entire Arctic, it's like saying that the UK had a warm and dry July based on just the weather in the south east and midlands of England.
Besides, just look back over the last few years on the DMI site http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php
Even 2007 had a mostly below average summer. Makes you think it could have something to do with the enthalpy of fusion? Or even if that is not the case, then it simply shows there are other factors, rather than temperature, which can do a lot of damage to Arctic ice, regardless of how cold it is.
Ok , I was referring to G.W post claiming that 'gaps' in the ice will cause the surface temperatuer to be higher , nothing to do with ice extent.
A.A should be happening above 80N aswell , or is above 80N exempt from A.A.
Why isn't Arctic amplification happening above 80N , maybe it doesn't exist at all (ooops! Did I sat that ou loud)
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You bring a smile to my face each time you post CJWRC, long may it continue.
Expect to see the A,A,'s impacts around the 'normal' time of year (as outlined in the papers).
Glad to hear it G.W , maybe it is because subconciously you long for a voice of reason.
I presume it says this because it is not working out at the moment so it has to be changed to "well it wont happen till winter" to salvage some creditibility. Shouldn't it be more pronounced when ice leads are more common and larger , you see I came up to that conclusion using this mad theory called "logic".
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This Arctic amplification is really no working this year is is it? Although we have the fifth lowest extent on record we have the coldest summer up there on record. Explain please.
Really makes that article you posted above look like a load of rubbish G.W.
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Hi stewfox - you could start with the lower part of this post at Skeptical Science. It links to several research papers on the topic:
http://www.skeptical...gaining-ice.htm
I don't think there's much info on Antarctic sea ice volume - that will be very interesting indeed to determine from Cryosat data, though we'll have to wait a few years for a trend. Extent in Antarctica is increasing (higher maxima, but similar minima each year), but is the volume of ice increasing, stable or even decreasing? My guess is that the processes alluded to in the above Skeptical Science post are capable of creating more thin new ice, but that this pretty much all melts out in the summer, ans so volumes at the end of the austral summer may not be increasing. Clearly it's a good thing at present if there's a decent-sized (area) shiny bit at the bottom of the world to reduce warming feedbacks at present, but how long will this good fortune last in the face of sustained Southern Ocean warming?
EDIT: mullender83 - my take on that one would be a 'yes' at least in the short term if the Arctic is less able to hold in its cold air over the winter as a result of sea ice loss. In the coming few winters it will be interesting indeed to see if events even a little similar to 2009-2010 are repeated.
Yea this is fair enought but if it is not going below normal in summer i think we can say that the ice isn't thinning out and that the old thick is neither increasing or decreasing?
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I never commented on its significance, but thanks for your contribution, a real aid to the debate.
Anyway, if the "Fram express" has actually been in operation we should see the first signs of it on the modis images today. If the flow has started already, then it's bad news because the 0z GFS has northerly winds down through Fram straight out to t192!
But if we don't see ice getting shipped out in the next day or 2, there's a good chance it might not happen much at all and a >5,000,000km2 minimum extent becomes likely.
Thanks NDS , I always find your posts balanced and imformative , you may be the only one here.
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Yep, Antarctica is looking great at the moment and I'd be very surprised if it doesn't reach an all time record high in the next few weeks, but even Joe B points out the the global ice trend has been downwards, though he believes this is the beginning of a rise back to the long term average. We still have around a month of the melt season left so lets see where we finish wrt the Arctic and hope Joe B is right about ice levels increasing!
Even with the cooling he predicts, those long range charts have the UK and Ireland warmer than average
Yep it has been going downwards slowly but it looks like the last few years it has been on the up , long may it continue!
Last year those CFS charts showed us above average aswell so I hope they are wrong for us again , but if the globe as a whole is cold those that mean more chance of cold air getting to us or more severe cold snaps? Esp the big cold anom over Siberia , if we could tap in to that we'ed be cooking(well the opposite anyway).
Joe B has really been on the ball with his predictions over the last few years , looking forward to see what his predictions for our winter is.
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Joe laminate floori has just uploaded his latest Global ice/temp report.
Here it is, take a look: http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj
Main points.
Northern hemisphere ice below normal
Southern hemisphere ice above normal
Global sea ice ABOVE NORMAL!
EDIT: I post the latest arctic figures. According to the Danish meteorological institute we are above 2007 2008 and 2009 and just below 2005 in extent. And acording to the norwegian site we are above 2007 2008 and 2009 in area.
Here you go:
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Ok tought I'd post area and extent charts again, no opinions, just the facts.
In area we are now above 2007, 2008 , and 2009. In extent we are now well above 2007 and 2008 and we are now absaloutely equal to 2009 , in a few days we will be above '09. Yet another year on year inprovement.
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Frosty, come on mate. I already pulled you for your temperature readings, which seem to be 10c out.
But now 4 feet of level snow in the hills.
4 feet is something that doesn't occur often even in Finland, Sweden, France, Scotland. 4 feet is a stupid estimate. Maybe 1.5 feet. Not 4 mate.
Well I witnessed 10-15 foot drifts over 500m last winter in south east Ireland why is four feet so hard to beleive? That was on the 29th december when a front satlled over the country for 3 days , rain at ground level , caused alot of flooding! Who knows how much was up there by the 15th of Jan.
I saw 4 foot of lying snow over 400m on the 1st April , 7 foot drifts. I guess you havn't been up the mountains during snow events , it's a world away from ground level , look at some pictures on google!
Heres a pic from February 2009 , just shows how different it can be too ground level , this gave 6cm at ground level:
Valley Fog
in Archived weather photography area
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Fantastic pictures GW. During the winter I often see something similar in the slaney valley on my way to work. It's like a snake of cloud going through the countryside.
I've never got a picture(I'm usually late enough without stopping to take a few pics)