CJWRC

Fantastic pictures GW. During the winter I often see something similar in the slaney valley on my way to work. It's like a snake of cloud going through the countryside. I've never got a picture(I'm usually late enough without stopping to take a few pics)

I think the only way a long range forecast or any weather forecast for that matter is a computer model that takes into account every single variable possible, no matter how small, of course it may be thousands of years before we know all of these variables. LRF's will get better gradually with time. if you look where the internet was 20 years ago and where it is now, theres no reason long range models can't go through the same transformation.

Since when have the odds ever had any effect on the weather? It's not exactly a teleconnection. We should just look at it as any other year and look at whats going to influence our weather patterns. Odds and statistics do not effect the year thats coming!

Cheers for the info paul! Tought i had a virus there for a minute , lol. Thanks

LOL i can barely speak irish never mind welsh, I edited them out but they looked like </br></br>, i seen them in other posts aswell

Yep it has happened to me too, tis a bit annoying! EDIT: What are all these weird letters appearing in my post?

LOL. The only evidence available suggest it is getting thicker. There is NO evidence to suggest is getting thinner. But the only evidence shows a substantial increase in ice thickness. Post facts that will counter my claims.

Hey Gray-Wolf!! Remember how you have been shouting on about ice thickness constantly over the last few years because ice extent has been contradicting your views. Well I presume you've never actually looked at thickness data because if you did you would see that ice has been getting THICKER!! I'm sure you never actually looked at the data because I doubt you would lie to us. US NAVY SAYS ICE IS GETTING THICKER: Ice Getting thicker! Facts win again!

Thanks NDS, Interesting to see a low of 0.6c at gurteen and a grass min of -1.9c at casement, both on the 30th.

I saw it too. There is a russian supply rocket up with it at the moment. AFAIK it was docking so it was running ahead of the ISS but at slower speed so the ISS wil catch up and then they will dock. I think it has to be done this way as the ISS can't change it's speed instantly but the rocket can, so if something went wrong the rocket could pull away in front, not possible if approaching from the rear.

To say that the north atlantic current is gone is very misleading , given the fact that has mearly just a small slow down, if anything those sattelite images show a pick up in the last 2 weeks. LOL, this will be added to the long line of scaremongering ploys that have taken palce in the last 10 years.

I'm afraid I think you fall into this category G.W

Are you having a laugh , we are still a above six million , by what method do you your arrive at the conclusion that sub 5 million is a given? Oh yeah... your method, that would explain it! EDIT: Put your cursor over where 5 million sqkm would be and then you would see the sort of totally unprecedented drop we would need to get there!

Thanks for the info NDS. With some the talk going on here over the last week or so , it was hard not to be worried that we would se a sub 4million km2. A few on here might have egg on their face alright , but I certainly doubt anybody will be dissapointed , or atleast I really hope they won't. If some on here are dissapointed that the arctic is doing better than expected , well then we should really not listen to anything they have to say!

It is also very important remember that it hasn't been this warm for 3000 in that particular area , this is not an idicator for an entire globe. For example some areas have seen cooling over the last 30 years , so if in 2000 years they warm up and snow patches are disvovered you can't say today was a very cold period in earth.

Really is like a runaway train at the moment , ehat figure do you think it will end up at , a new record? As was posted before temperatures have been on a downward trend in antartica over the last thirthy years aswell , this seems to be the cause of the build up in ice. Really dispells any nonsence about warmer temps causing ice shelfs to break away.

Ok , I was referring to G.W post claiming that 'gaps' in the ice will cause the surface temperatuer to be higher , nothing to do with ice extent. A.A should be happening above 80N aswell , or is above 80N exempt from A.A. Why isn't Arctic amplification happening above 80N , maybe it doesn't exist at all (ooops! Did I sat that ou loud)

Glad to hear it G.W , maybe it is because subconciously you long for a voice of reason. I presume it says this because it is not working out at the moment so it has to be changed to "well it wont happen till winter" to salvage some creditibility. Shouldn't it be more pronounced when ice leads are more common and larger , you see I came up to that conclusion using this mad theory called "logic".

This Arctic amplification is really no working this year is is it? Although we have the fifth lowest extent on record we have the coldest summer up there on record. Explain please. Really makes that article you posted above look like a load of rubbish G.W.

Yea this is fair enought but if it is not going below normal in summer i think we can say that the ice isn't thinning out and that the old thick is neither increasing or decreasing?

Thanks NDS , I always find your posts balanced and imformative , you may be the only one here.

Yep it has been going downwards slowly but it looks like the last few years it has been on the up , long may it continue! Last year those CFS charts showed us above average aswell so I hope they are wrong for us again , but if the globe as a whole is cold those that mean more chance of cold air getting to us or more severe cold snaps? Esp the big cold anom over Siberia , if we could tap in to that we'ed be cooking(well the opposite anyway). Joe B has really been on the ball with his predictions over the last few years , looking forward to see what his predictions for our winter is.

Joe laminate floori has just uploaded his latest Global ice/temp report. Here it is, take a look: http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj Ice report Main points. Northern hemisphere ice below normal Southern hemisphere ice above normal Global sea ice ABOVE NORMAL! EDIT: I post the latest arctic figures. According to the Danish meteorological institute we are above 2007 2008 and 2009 and just below 2005 in extent. And acording to the norwegian site we are above 2007 2008 and 2009 in area. Here you go:

Ok tought I'd post area and extent charts again, no opinions, just the facts. In area we are now above 2007, 2008 , and 2009. In extent we are now well above 2007 and 2008 and we are now absaloutely equal to 2009 , in a few days we will be above '09. Yet another year on year inprovement.

Well I witnessed 10-15 foot drifts over 500m last winter in south east Ireland why is four feet so hard to beleive? That was on the 29th december when a front satlled over the country for 3 days , rain at ground level , caused alot of flooding! Who knows how much was up there by the 15th of Jan. I saw 4 foot of lying snow over 400m on the 1st April , 7 foot drifts. I guess you havn't been up the mountains during snow events , it's a world away from ground level , look at some pictures on google! Heres a pic from February 2009 , just shows how different it can be too ground level , this gave 6cm at ground level: