Thundery Shower
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Posts posted by Thundery Shower
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Next week from friday looks bleh.. sods law the week i go on holiday. however this is all changeable of course.
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interesting GFS runs atm, next week looks like cool and unsettled mon - wednesday then by friday warm settled weather arrives again with high pressure dominating, with temperatures between 24 - 26'c, gotta say September has been the best of dry weather in terms of sunshine amounts, and with the polar marinetime airmass temperatures in the evening keeps the evening temps cool so not so stuffy.
going into FI when i go on holiday on the 21st September high pressure still holding on with temps averaging 21 - 23c, for this time of year is very warm.
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Im dissapointed with todays run, yesterday look promising with mon > wednesday looking high twenties even 25 - 26c possible. It's looking more between 22 - 24c. what happened to the models or is this just a blip?
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It certainly looks like a breakdown from thursday next week onwards. Mon - Wed 24 -26 then by thursday evening cooler and fresher weather returning.
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Agreed, next week looks a case of NE/SE split, with warmer dryer weather in the south with mid twenties possibly 24 - 25'c on Wed/Thurs. before another atalantic low dominates. This weekend looks non changable with Friday Evening looks like heavy rain pushing through before Saturday morning, which has 50% of storm risk, so possibly a rumble of thunder thrown in for good measure, Saturday looks like sunshine and showers but struggling to get above high teens. Sunday looking at the latest fax chart has a tough sitting through midlands and to the east, could be something watch for storm lovers, then by Monday looks alot better with high pressure moving up from the south temps between 20 - 22'c so not all doom and gloom.
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I've just looked up the Skyscan P5 and it looks really good.Are you having it sent from the USA or do they supply them over here?
I always use Netweather Extra radar to track storms, I find it really good.I used to use IOW lightening detector but I find NW extra to be more accurate and reliable.
theres actually a UK site you can buy them from, but they are not cheap minimum of £220, but it's very good similar to the strike alert v2 but it can also tell you if it's a severe storm.
like many other members im addicted to tstorms, and one thing i was missing was a strike alert/hand held device, as you know that current software can sometimes loose track of storms and cannot always pinpoint the exact location, so im looking to buy the V2 tomorrow then, upgrade to Skyscan P5 before next year. im also looking at the Boltech hardware but it's a whooping £300 quid. same software i believe that the isle of wight lightning detector use.
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Thanks
im purchasing v2 then save up for Skyscan P5
The software i use is either isleofwight lightning, for imports. or Nowcast strike dsiplay for home grown. which gives you details/summary of where the storm is heading, distance, and speed of tstorms. there is a small subscription fee, but it's a great tool.
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What's the cape like round here TS? I'm on iPod sorry
Pretty good the highest potential is between 3-6pm tomorrow, when the cape values reach between 800 - 900
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I think I may have more of a chance tomorrow .I really hope so as I'll be camping in a field lol. Sunshine and light showers so far here today but I'm not banking on anything.
I have the strike alert version 1 and it's rather knackered lol I stick me batteries down with blue tac. Always thought about getting another one but it's pointless now I don't get storms anymore.
lol Your area looks pretty good for storms, so whats version 1 like? does it work?iv'e heard that it gets interference from electromagnetic devices like, PC, TV's ect..
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looking at the latest GFS the most areas at risk tomorrow between 9-5pm is South Western areas & some parts of CS England, Wales and parts of the midlands, where cape values are higher.
My area has a 40/50% risk of storms tomorrow.
cape 600-700kj
lift index - 2
looking good so far.
Abit off topic anyone used either Skyscan P5 or strikealert V2?
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You might of answered my question from the other dayTS,I remember a storm back in the 90's that was so bad i was actually scared but couldn't remember the date,maybe the storm you mentioned was the one
it was one of the biggest storms i can remember
this was taken from archive.
Looking at the Dundee satellite quick-looks the storms generated were a result of warm moist air being dragged up from the continent being lifted by an approaching secondary cold front wave from the west. Looking at the 02:15 IR image it is clear that there were large amounts of convective activity running in a line up the country, and possibly also in the North Sea. The difference in the IR signal can be seen behind and ahead of the front showing a strong temperature gradient. By this time a new "cut-off low" appears to have formed in the Bay of Biscay along the waving cold-front. This waving line of slow-moving but intense convection is the likely cause of such a succession of storms in the north-west region on this night.
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i know the feeling, the last supercellular storm i remember was back on the 7th June 1996, hot day 30c then buy evening continous lightning, gusty winds, hail, these were the all nighters. The storm tracked from west to east hitting hampshire and oxford area then towards london, and i remember my dad telling me to get away from the windows as it was so severe. if anyone could get a archive grab of the cells that would be great for everyone to see.
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but main question is why, why is it the head north then veer off NE and dissapate?
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Can someone here explain why any storms that hit the channel dissipate? back in the 90's through to around 2001 most percentage of storms, would explode into life when crossing the channel and hit the IOW & CS england, iv'e noticed over the last the last couple of years that are chances of any storms from the near continent is very marginal at best, i have the understanding in respect of trough's and spanish plumes. my only opinion is that due to changes in sea temprature and global warming that the trigger of moist air used to produce storms has reduced, thus anystorms that cross the channel losses it's trigger and turns to heavy rain.
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The cell looks like it has more of a N-NW approach now, i think Meto-office have go this spot on.
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very dark in near swindon anyone confirm thunder from that area of percipitation?
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Ah well got damp squid for the last 2 days, ah well theres always next time.
like alot of people i have been waiting for a good ole storm for years. And central S england 9/10 always misses out by fraction of 30 miles which can be frustrating, as Paul mentioned driving in the Uk is totally different than driving in USA "straight plains" which is why i dont chase, more likely get stuck in traffic specially round rush hour or getting lost, yeah i feel abit disheartened but it's not the end of the world and there are 100 more possibilities that there will be more to come in the future,.
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Well im stuck between the cold front and the storms to the east, how unlucky is that.
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cant see andover/tidworh getting hit to far west by about 50 miles
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You guys are still complaining, from the models yesterday they said it would be a "complex" scenario as to whether we get storms or not. it is what it is we just have to accept that it didn't turn out the way it did and wait for the next spanish plume, there is no point crying over spilt milk and moaning that the forecasters go it wrong, the fact is though we always know that they overdue things for example saying "humdingers" getting everyone so hyped and then nothing happens. the best way to know is by looking at the radars. The thing is as soon as i saw the high based clouds from the MCS in the SW that it would limit convection, Cmon peeps this is why we love or hate weather.
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The cold front isn't moving very far, there is a small cell just out by jersey lol
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What does it take to get a decent storms in this country any-more! The long wait for a good storm for Weston continues, and when I mean a good storm, not one with just a few rumbles and a couple of flashes. It was June 2006 when the last time I had what I call a proper storm, one that last more than 30 mins, has lots of lightning with thunder, one where you can take your time filming it & still watch it as well.
Hey-hoy, maybe there is still time this year. I feel sorry for you guys in the east, it seemed like the perfect chance for you to see some spectacular stuff, I was looking forward to seeing all the photos and videos today.
This is mostly due to the positioning of the trough, if you look on the met office website under "bracknell storms" look at the direction on which the cells are moving more of a E - W as apposed to SW - NE, in the past trough/cold front would be positioned just above East Anglia in a NW direction which meant any storms moving up from fance would move in a NW direction into southern countries. Unfortunately as time has gone on we have a more SW influence, which explains why we dont have long hot spells. i remember seeing hot air move in from the south east with a breakdown of storms.
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I can understand the people's frustration, as we rarely get a good spell of storms, but unfortunately the ingredients weren't spot on yesterday. the main reason being is the remenants of the yesterday morning's MCS over the SW caused an overflow of high cloud which caped any convection or (CIN) convective inhibitation. I have a feeling that the forecasters didn't predict the MCS to hit so early or that was the main event to move east creating potent storms. It was a very close but no ciggar situation, however some forecasters got it 100% correct with the main storms being in the NE and West Midlands area. What i have noticed is that people compare spanish plumes to the 1990's, however 9 times out of 10 most MCS move in a more N/E direction in today's weather, which is something todo with the position of the cold front but that's out of my knowledge of weather.
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Check the north of spain guys, i think this is the activity for tonight
cant see andover/tidworh getting hit to far west by about 50 miles
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I thought it was supposed to be clear??? constant low cloud rubbish