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weathe20

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    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 4

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by weathe20

    To be honest, we all need to face it. If our weather stations are recording temps of around 1.5 and above, in general (in general) we will see cold rain. To be honest if the temp isnt at freezing or below im always worried what will fall from the sky.

    In some conditions where very heavy ppn appears the temp can drop rapidly and big snow flakes can fall. But when 'wet' air slowly comes in contact with coldish air and temps above freezing it rains.

    Now im sure many of you will disagree, but in the last TWO events the temperature just hasnt been cold enough for snow or lying snow. Especially IMBY.

    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted

    The forecast changed as we got closer to the time - as it always will. The mistake people are making is to take the forecast at 48 hours or 24 hours out as the final position. It isn't. Two years ago my area was smack under a red warning from the met-office for heavy snow - up to 12 inches. In the event it missed us by 30-40 miles. Thats just the way it is. I know people are dissappointed, but the criticism isn't fair here.

    Sorry but METO was going for snow at lunchtime yesterday, 6 hrs from the start of the event, not 24 or 48.

    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by weathe20

    This is a general moan here. I really don't think it is fair to say the MET got it that wrong. In the lead up to this there was a huge emphasis on uncertainty. I don't recall any forecasts from the met or the BBC saying that it was definitely going to give widespread snow of 10 cm. They just didn't say this. The big problem is we all cherry pick the best bits for ourselves both in terms of locations and amounts. So a forecast of snow for some parts of the south west, with up 1-5 cm typical and up to 10 cm in parts becomes 10 cm for all. Snow in this country is incredibly hard to forecast. We all know this. Lots of us HAVE HAD SNOW. Many of us have between 1 and 5 cm. Where is the huge mistake in all this?

    The mistake is where the snow was forecast to fall. This snow forecast changed very much. The line of snow, and snow risk charts was a line from Glouc, Bristol, Weston, Exeter....it didnt take that path. It went Wiltshire, Dorest.

    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just over an inch here, now very slushy and drizzling.

    I too am surprised and disappointed at the inaccuracy of the forecasts, I'm not a METO basher but there's no way of getting round the fact that this time, they were badly wrong. Snow may be difficult to forecast but it's not so difficult to amend the forecast when it becomes clear it simply isn't happening as predicted.

    Think the forecast changed very much in a 6 hr period.

    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by weathe20

    Morning. Still drizzle here looking outside. Everything wet, damp and murky.

    My weather station recorded a minimum temp of +1.3 during the night. This was obviously the problem IMBY with regards to snowfall. It just never got cold enough.

    After watching the radar loop, it seemed some PPN fell as maybe wet snow but with temperatures above freezing and ground wet that must be why there is no sign of any overnight snow on the ground....and also the temperture >

    Current temp now +2.0

    So didn't turn into a reasonable event in the end, now to models. Lets see whats in store........!.

    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted

    If you look on the radar showing the UK, you can quite clearly see two large bands of precipitation - one to the West (affecting us) and another just to our East - there's a gap right down the middle of the UK.

    The one to our East is colder air with snow - we're in the Western one, less cold and rain.

    So the stuff to East was supposed to move SW, but now where is it going? London then into the Channel? Very different to the forecast.

    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

    in Regional

    Posted

    bloody hell your so cheerful half glass person , not . What will happen will happen things can change so bloody smile

    Ummm? Just reporting on my local conditions....

    How about yours????????

    temp 3.1

    If it was heavy snow here i would be saying........heavy snow.......

    ITS NOT EVEN FORECAST TO SNOW YET ANYWAY, IT WAS ALWAYS RAIN FIRST!!

    South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

    in Regional

    Posted

    I'm Really not so sure about tonight.

    temp currently 4.0c Humidity 73% DP -0.5

    we cant even really get freezing rain from this as the ground isnt any longer below freezing! i must admit, i didnt expect temps to rise so much today, especially considering the cloud cover. . . odd . . . any ways, unless temps take a dramatic tumble, i cant see anything materializing except rain. . . . shame really as we dont have much time left for snow in this area . . though March can produce some quick cold blast and snow, it only lasts a day or so!

    Let the Nowcasting Commence!

    Got to admit I was very supprised to see 4.1 on my weather station when I got home at 2.30pm, after yesterdays coldest day of the winter (IMBY) of 1.1.

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