weathe20
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Posts posted by weathe20
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Plenty of hail showers today, supprising how long it stayed on the ground. Could be the only 'white stuff' for these parts this winter.
If it was now the end of June and I said summer is over due to the charts what would you all say.....?
Dont be an idiot.........that would be close.
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I remember the actual heat wave begining of November last year......then what happend.
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Personally i can't see whats wrong with the post from weatha20,the three statements are all correct,the NAO,AO are forecast to trend negative this will decrease westerly airflow for the uk,and increase easterly airflow to the polar region bringing about a northen hemisphere pattern change.Ridging is also being shown from a mid atlantic high and troughing to eastern europe on most of the mods at the moment.I'm a less experienced model watcher and it wasn't missleading to me.
Thank you wolvesfan, I was just trying to positively add to this thread.Im very interested how our current may change, and what things to look at to indicate a change. The NAO and AO was just something I saw and thought it was worth commenting on. But as for now the models look zonal. When we get stuck in such a pattern, severe cold, or mild, or hot, I always find it interesting see what occurs to change a current weather pattern.
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Heights building on the Alaskan side pushing into the Arctic have
been showing up on the far reaches of the GFS extended output for
the past couple of days now. They are now being modeled inside the
t 300 time frame which is showing some consistency in the modelling.
My previous few posts have alluded to this as these heights will usher
in the start of the northern hemisphere pattern change we will see mid
January onwards.
This pattern wont last. Signals are a foot for a pattern change to cooler conditions mid Jan.
NAO heading into neautral and slightly negative. The mean AO is heading to negative.
Ridging in the Atlantic bring N, NW air flow, with troughing across eastern europe.
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Is anybody experienced enough here to describe whats going on with NH charts today? Any signs of any pattern change in the BIGGER PICTURE? Im asking because I dont understand them enough yet.
It seems with the current IMBY charts for the UK its easy to comment, but what about the overall picture. Much more interesting to talk about surely? Or is that just as predictable!
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Reading this thread it seems winter is over. December 29th isnt it?
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The far reaches of FI on the GFS northern hemisphere charts again provide the interest
with a large ridge over the Alaskan side pushing heights into the Arctic. This type of
event will trigger a large pattern change with increased blocking to the north and a far
greater chance of some potent and perhaps prolonged winter weather for the UK and
Europe.
This is the sort of information I like to read as a newbie. The current pattern seems set in stone currently, but this won't last forever, and it seems that the NH charts are the ones to watch for any up and coming changes. Having a disussion about the 'bigger picture' and not just IMBY seems a more interesting line of topic here than the boring charts currently being talked about.
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Please, any changes in the NH this morning on the charts? Thanks.
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Just read this thread, from a newbie perspective it is totally confusing. Some people obviously dont have a clue what they are looking at or talking about when it comes to the models. No consistancy for a newbie to learn anything.
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Urrmmmm... there is the small matter of spring, in which March especially can deliver more snow than all of winter. Plus, December was always predicted to be the mildest month of the winter... just wait and see is my advice, patience is really a virtue in this winter.
Yes your right, the NW LRF suggests Jan and Feb to be more interesting, lets hope so. Snow in March is useless from my experience, never seems to settle and sun is getting strong. Its a waste to get cold synoptics in March if ask me, but thats just my opinion, if you live in Scotland might be a different story. This winter has flown by so far, November and now December just disappeared...as I said, 8 weeks to go.
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No frost here yet this winter. Daiseys still in bloom in pots in garden. Only 8 weeks of winter left then we can look forward to a ***** summer.
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Why are people suggesting they can see the effects of SSW already in the Model Output thread? This event hasnt even happend, nor is it forecast? It has been picked up on some models are MIGHT happen. Is that true?
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well said nick, you speak for the majority on here who are looking forward to a proper cold spell in the new year and the models are now showing hints of that with the prospect of the jet slowly sinking south being the first but most important step forward.
Why is the jet sinking south so important? Surely its something else that will make the jet sink south. Im no expert, but can someone please post charts showing the jet sinking south, because nobody has yet.
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I'm surprised that 00z has shown what it does this early BUT its on the right track IMO [EXPECT to see some tantalising model runs over next 10 days]. We see the NW'ly flow develop with the jet pushing south. ECM in FI showing the same type of theme. Thats whats to look for as we enter New Year, jet pushing south, NW/SE axis developing and period 7-10 Jan for 'trigger' LP or undercutter. Its all FI though, maybe models are just doing a 'tease'.
Mean time the storm 27/28 pushed a little further north and mild Xmas Day. BFTP
I presume we are looking East for January?
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Theme continues, PM air, then mild, PM air then mild.
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Lots of comments regarding 'not good for coldies'. I think the models are showing what they should be according to NW LRF. Maybe things will on change on the output over the next week or so.
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GFS 12z is showing a rather settled run tonight
Not far off a Bartlett High either at times
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2041.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2521.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2761.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3001.png
2012 Begins under low pressure
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3601.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png
So if you want proper winter weather come back in 2012 as this month will not bring anything other than settled and at times mild weather.
Hopefully some cold will appear in the charts soon so mild Gavin can stop spamming this forum with chart after chart with no explanation of anything.
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No frost here overnight. Still waiting for the negative symbol to show on my weather station this winter. Its nearly Christmas and not even a frost (frost = white grass for me!) rubbish winter so far. Lets hope its a winter of two halfs as forecast by NW.
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More normal UK winter fare (im bored of posting this, will probably stop till next winter) Milder next week, then maybe PM and milder incursions throughout. Some wintry stuff for the North with the PM incursions but appart from that just a........
bor-fest.
Hope Santa brings something for all you coldies out there......seems you all have been naughty boys and girls this year.
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Looks like normal standard UK winter fare from the models. Seems to be the theme.
for JH - bor fest.
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Cant beleave anyone here thought they were in for decent snow fall...come on. Some sleet at 6.30, then it cleared to lovely blue skys right now.
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Confirmation of RAIN
1.6
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Just out of interest e what are these suggestions about the upcoming mild spell potentially just being a blip actually based on?
Seeing this is the model output thread take a look at the GFS between monday and xmas eve before it goes into a NW with colder air digging down.
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Think its time members invested in NW radar, its brilliant. This type of event is great for watching on that radar.............watch as the rain turns to snow...........or stays as rain!!
Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by weathe20
Sheadhead would not except the NAO and AO and heading neutral or negative at the moment, so clearly hes not picking up on the 'signs' of a pattern change.