[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

The models rely on atmospheric data. I'm interested to know if they can factor in the radiated cold from ground conditions. To my thinking, we have cold rain coming that will freeze on contact in many areas that have long standing surface ice. The air just above ground might well be a lot colder than model predications? 

[Welcome to the Southwest and Central Southern England regional group]

No Met Office warning of ice for Gloucestershire. I am absolutely astonished. Road conditions are about to become very dicey, especially just off the beaten track - where homes are. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Cheltenham: Hasn't stopped snowing all day. Large flakes. The whole area looks very festive. 5-7cm accumulations (at least) on shrubbery, walls, pavements and on roads in N Chelt. Temps hovered at or just above freezing all day. All due to a lovely pivoting area of precipitation. 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Looking forward to the sparks. A lovely skyline last night, flashing away with mostly IC lightning. Let see what the next 24hrs bring

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

I'm up late.. Below zero here by a couple of degrees. Glistening white on top of cars. Almost looks like a slight snow dusting//probably a bit of mist has deposited. Lowest overnight temps in a good while!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

4Flood warnings
Flooding is expected - immediate action required

River Severn at Abbots Court, Deerhurst

River Severn at Apperley and The Leigh

River Severn at Chaceley and Haw Bridge

River Severn at Severn Ham, Tewkesbury

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I think they have a dodgy rain gauge?! The 24 hour accumulations don't even show that. The majority of stations are showing around 1 inch, with some around 1.5 inches.

Possibly but the central rain blob circulated over Gloucestershire/Oxfordshire/S Wale all night and this morning long. I had radar up, unable to sleep, watching and seeing..it isn't out of the realm to experience large precip totals locally.  We are totally at saturation point with runoff from the Welsh mountains which will sustain levels on the River Severn and its tributaries.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

47 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Just seen a snowy pic from Minch on Breakfast. I’m down at 30meters asl and nothing here. Might have a little drive up in my truck shortly. Will grab some pics if it’s any good. 

Looking forward to any pics you take but am more interested in this pivoting LP system. Not left our area since it moved in. Just under 4 inches rain since midnight here (nearest AWS) more than that me thinks and it keeps coming.. small hints of 2007, but a much colder time of year. Keeping watch for snowflakes but there's not much chance of it sticking in our local in the soggyness.  

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Non stop rain here.. as expected. This low is pivoting over my area - is quasi-stationary. 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Finally, there is a sobering up in the model thread. We are all in for a pretty treacherous period of weather after such a long period of soaking imo. Don't like the alarmist in me but.. heavens.. this is too much rain to come!

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

I can't model watch and read all this chasing of cold in the model thread as if its the be all and end all of Autumn weather.. we are saturated here and the bemoaning feels a bit superficial when we have real potential for serious flooding leading into Winter. Feeling glum this morning at the prospect of yet more delay to work the veg allotment. There is little over wintering on my patch this year, its saturated with no sign of drying out.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Nearby AWS giving 2cm rain since midnight.. probably a little more actually. No let up. Ground saturated from October rains.. where do we go from here?

 

Edit, it just updated  - 2.8 cm precipitation

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Chilly, damp air and soaking wet ground. Needs weeks of 'dry' to sort out the veg patches. I know I'm not alone.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Well the allotment is a lake a few inches down. Just had a few thunder rumbles preceded by a bit of squally wind. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Torrential rain now. Radar shows it moving NE pretty fast, should ease off later but could cause flash flooding in prone spots here. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

I have a thunderstorm right now! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Pulses of very heavy rain. No thunder or lightning. Very little wind right now. It was quite gusty this morning for a time. My area lingered within the central area of the circulation/ low for quite some time this afternoon - its around the Birmingham area now. Expecting frequent bursts of heavy rain here.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards]

Tipping down with rain here, near to the centre of the low. No thunder, no wind (though gusty earlier). A very Summer type of rain. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

What a contrast to the recent heatwave. 17C currently and rain all morning. Still very warm indoors. Taking the opportunity to do some batch cooking 

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, Raindrops said:

The lvl 2 happened hours ago, it started in the District then made its way to Scotland.

But the quadrant for severe covered a much broader area. Agree that was a very good group of cells, but even so, nothing further South so far. To my mind, the whole lot was shunted Eastward of the forecast.

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

The one just NE of Birmingham looks like a backwards letter C, that's supposedly a bad thing right?

I'm not seeing anything severe in that location.

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Just now, sjamess90 said:

I can't sleep because it's so muggy here just had a look at the latest map data, CAP might have broken some interesting activity development for central portion of the UK. Potentially some hit or miss storms brewing.

Still, its not the level 2 or 1 severe any of us were expecting. We'll see in the coming few hours.

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

Pepping up in Manchester etc.

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Well I didn't expect that, a cell just moved through but it produced a CG just to our South before it arrived, and a pretty nice deep basey boom shortly after. Apart from that nothing else. It Was cool though!

Offshore, to the SE of IOW there is an interesting cell cluster coming ashore to mainland south coast and intensifying (according to forecast radar) on its way to Farnborough. Its appears to be a rotating cluster. No sferics detected just yet, but I'm just looking at how its being forecasted. Hail cores too.

[Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards]

My room just hit 30C. I will never again complain I am hot when its 26C. I think the veg got a brief watering just a few minutes ago. Not feeling this 'event', even estofex seems a bust for this.