[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 hours ago, That ECM said:

Just been outside and it’s freezing, anyone see a breakdown yet?

We should have a sweepstake on who’s going to be the first “it”ll never get cold” member who seeks out the breakdown. Sure to be from Cheshire.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Did mean to add specifically GFS....

But, in your rush to upset others, you didn’t. 

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

A subtly disguised winters over post. Ha ha. 

It’ll be warnings about solar insolation this time next week. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, but they tied in with a lot of the cold ramping that went on in here which people find acceptable but moan when people post mild charts.

Well you do have to applaud the high skill levels and results of those forever suggesting that we will experience mild weather and south westerly winds.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone notice a more important thing on the para 18z?

 

EDIT : More important than friday's snow chart that is.

Little yellow blob?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Sadly that does seem to be a trend now.  Make the most of this week!

Couldn’t trouble you for next Saturday’s lottery numbers could I?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 hours ago, pureasthedriven said:

That’s a cluster and a half! 

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Since a little banter is ok, I’m off to NYC tonight and I’m quite relieved not to have missed anything significant whilst away and hopefully be back for real fun and games

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think you referring to that December 81 to January 82 period and DARE!

I’m 57 and in Gloucester/Bristol it was Amazing!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Good stuff @Catacol..

The mac/micro both- now worth noting..

We-are at that stage...and alls looking very well indeed.

Winters coming...

The baby is up-n running!

Up and sucking innit?

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

2 hours ago, Altostratus said:

Dangerous cold over NE America. -30C 850hPa isotherm almost touching NYC!

 

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Outrageous run, FV3 at T360:

If this is the models now starting to latch on to the trop response to the SSW, we could see all sorts of crazy runs.  Something has shifted in the FI model output today.  Liking it.

I’m off to NYC on 21/1 for 6 nights!

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Indeed it’s been all over the show to be honest . Some posts in the strat thread to carm the nerves now . The only model not showing SSW and then split vortex is the GFS .

Have you got a link to the strat thread please I just can’t find it for this winter 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Shouldn't people be allowed to post what they like provided they have backing? If not then perhaps the thread should be renamed 'post cold charts and speculate thread'. I presume the majority of people are hunting for cold on here and are simply posting a chart to say what's going on.

I don't believe there is anything wrong with that and many people viewing this thread will be looking to find out what the models are showing as well as looking for signs of cold.

It’s the schadenfreude that accompanies posts from the same old suspects who incidentally, also do their best to be first to post gloating posts indicating mild weather as earlier as possible in the morning 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

As you were on the UKMO day 6. Or "weapons grade depression" as it's also known  

That’s at least 8 days before the colder weather is expected. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

42 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

You know full well that this chart is before any trop effect from the SSW can possibly have been modelled.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

5 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

And gradually we'll see the cold weather moved to mid January, then early February, then march and then winter will be over. 

At least we had a bit of snow up here in Scotland last Saturday, better than nothing. Now time for the HP, better than rain and wind. Unfortunately in the long term it does seem like the Atlantic could return though, bringing a spell of mild and wet weather at the beginning of January with the AO gradually turning positive. 

I really hope I'm wrong

Ooooh wonderful early morning trolling. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

There is absolutely nothing about the longer range Met update to cause people to start crying and whinicking that it’s all over and there won’t be any snow. Once/if  a good easterly sets in then pretty much anything is possible in January.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

3 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

6z remarkably similar to the EC46 actually. Heights raise in the Atlantic behind an area of low pressure pulling colder air in over the UK

But the energy coming out of Canada is too strong and pushes the heigh Eastwards bringing a return to milder weather

EC46 shows transient highs exactly like this, maybe we'll get lucky and the cold portion of the high will coincide with Christmas day.

Yes but you must know by now that that is what the GFS does. Surely more fool you

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

14 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Glosea update. 

Surely there’s lots of room on that chart for some good easterlies.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

the model run predicts the temps to reach the heady heights of zero c @ T300.  that's not T384. i've seen quite a few comments about the warmings never making it below the end of the runs - these posts are plainly bollux 

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

56 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I'll do an update with the 500 mb anomaly charts later today, not all gloom and doom for you coldies though!

Deary me, been waiting a long while for you to say something more positive John!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Came to Krakow for a white Birthday on 13th Jan and at last it’s snowing ?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

9 hours ago, bluearmy said:

42

 

The Restaurant at the End of the Universe 

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

I read the post at about 3 am and it was very upbeat about significant -ve temps v climo for all of Jan and would have been misused by some so again he ll probably have to stop posting interesting insights for the Forum yet  again 

[Model output discussion - 1st December onwards]

We got people in here looking for recognition and plaudits punting for a wet mildly and windy Christmas. What odds they expecting for a Forest Green Rovers v Man City game?