matty8
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Posts posted by matty8
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Constant moderate snow for the last 3-4 hours with around 3cm+ on the ground now. Is it me or is this precip more intense than predicted? It seems to keep intensifying at the moment - could be a very interesting night. I have no doubt it'll weaken by the morning however this system could easily give some areas another 4inches before its done.
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Finally some welcome snow in Soham, Cambs. Nice to see the precip pepping up this afternoon - now getting on for a good covering of snow. Be nice to see some more tonight, possibly another few inches maybe?
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Pretty disappointed yet again, all surfaces wet, a little slush on roofs and cars and the precipitation chart has that distinct lack of bite about it. Cannot see anything special happening around cambridge this weekend now.
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yawn!! Nothing at all here. Snow about as localised as it gets with todays set up. Almost guaranteed nothing will get here now - going to get some sleep I think!
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As we've seen so many times this winter for some reason most of Cambridgeshire/Norfolk/Parts of Suffolk are seeing barely a thing in the way of precip, it just fizzles out when it gets here!!! grrrr. Quietly optimistic we might be in for something better in the early hours/morning for this area as it moves away from London/Essex. Not holding much hope though :/
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If we all had a freezing night last night with the ground frozen I might be more optimistic but we had a mild (ish) night and the ground is soaking wet with rain so I can't see the cambridge area getting any snow today, unless we get heavy precip tonight which looks unlikely. When's the next snow event?
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Here's what I predict: rain and drizzle mixed with sleet through Sunday, chance of wet snow by end of the day but none settling then petering out tonight. Areas: East Angia, South East. Elsewhere: rain or hill snow. What an overhyped load of nonsense today is lol move to America!!
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Well so far a bit of dandruff in the air with a little sprinkle but what a disappointment to what the met warned for! Had loads better than this last year. Bring on Sunday (and knowing my luck that'll be east of Cambridgeshire too!!)
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Still nothing here, looking bleak for the Csmbridge area
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So frustrating, I live near canbridge and had barely anything compared with the rest of the country, everything seems to stall and miss us either to the west or the east! Expecting about 2cm today at best
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Anyone have any info on that monster of a storm near the Ely/Littleport areas? Surely has to be golfball sized hail and flooding within that, I've been seeing tonnes of lightning clearly from over 20 miles away! It looks really rather insane!
I was indeed in that storm, drove up to it and met it at Littleport... what can I say, it was one of the best storms I've ever seen/witnessed. Almost constant flashes of lightning, torrential rain and large hail (around 2-4mm in diameter). Drove back out of it towards Soham and got ahead of the gust front, then met it again at Soham and it came with a bang - 50mph+ winds with constant rumbles and flashes. There's no doubt this was a severe storm, don't get them like this in the UK often. The sky had that green tint look about it.
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Just seen the amazing footage on youtube/ various news websites from the supercell footage in Oxfordshire yesterday. Very rare for the UK to get that type of storm, shows that in certain set-ups we can get them though. I'm sure we probably get more supercell type storms than we realise with supercell related tornados but they probably go under the radar/not reported.
It's worth noting the set-up we had for this storm to build, as the next few days definitely seem to provide similar set-ups, potentially the door is open for another supercell storm to develop? We seem to be having very similar weather patterns to Japan recently.... and you know what happened there.
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I've seen more or less this exact set up before and I have my doubts that London well get any settling snow as it's no-where near cold enough for that to happen in a significant way. However, wet snow flakes possible? Yes, I think if London gets lucky with precipitation in the morning it'll see some wet slushy stuff. If any managed to settle on the cars/roofs it'll melt within an hour. Dont know why this event is being so over-hyped - we need some serious cold air to get to the UK from the North or East.
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This blocking will last for another week or so looking at the new run, however it does signal a change to more mobile weather by end of Nov and has done for the last few runs now which is good for cold lovers. I have no doubt that there will be some changes afoot and in a few runs may hold a completely different story, it's always hard for the computer to figure out when this jet stream position/block position will come to an end.
Saying that it hasn't exactly been overly mild, either, as where it's been cloudy and misty during daytime hours the temperatures have been pegged back to a rather wintry 10-11C tops - obviously when the winds dropped and the sun's out it has been on the mild side for November.
Either way I think it looks good for a cold blast at the end of Nov/Beginning of Dec with the UK's first snow and frost on the horizon. How beyond that looks is anyone's guess at the moment!
Matt
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Maybe if they broaden the warning area's out stating ' Within the highlighted area, there is a risk of snow/rain/storms on Tuesday', much like the US do with their warnings, and then once a warning has been issued continue to modify it as situations change. Prime example would be today, London and East Anglia saw torrential rain this morning - did they put a warning out? NO! Yet they put a warning out for heavy rain that never came on Tuesday and to a certain extent lied to the media afterwards stating they were never wrong and London did get rain (about 3mm in truth).
Overall I don't sympathise as their forcasters are on mega wages and should have understood this by now. The statement in this thread about short term forecast quality not being good enough is spot on, there needs to be more brain power not computer power behind these <48hour forecasts. We deserve better!
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The met-office don't understand that they need to improve and update their forecasting techniques. Misplaced warnings are a common occurrence, as well as missing warnings for severe events altogether. The US has a far more superior forecasting set-up than in the UK, they should look to the US for help to make things better than what they are now.
I personally have relied on GFS for precipitation predictions this year and so far, it has been nearly spot on, where as wherever the METOFFICE get their data from it’s been completely wrong on numerous occasions. The GFS charts last night got it Spot On……. Yet again. Do not put your faith in the met-office, your better off looking at the GFS models yourself. They should do better for the money their top-forecasters are on, maybe pay less attention to researching climate change which they also have no idea on.
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Looking forward to the 18z GFS run, however very limited CAPE means severe storms are more or less out of the question but that said I think Heavy Downpours and some lightning can't be ruled out for the South East. The GFS run should give us a better idea of Precipitation amounts tonight.
Shame about the CAPE really, It hardly ever seems to be just right in the UK for good storms with all the ingredients in place.
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Wish I'd stayed in St Ives now. Had to endure 5 minutes of large hail and no thunder, stuck in my car, hearing it getting dented, whilst bencambs and we1330? seem to have an awesome show!
Did you get Pictures of the Hail & Damage for record?
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Its happening folks, Initiation has started. Some lovely looking 'blobs' coming up across the channel - could develop into some beefy cells similar to those over France/Belgium yesterday.
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Does anyone know how long this possible thundery day looks set to continue until?
Well into this afternoon/evening if you live in South East and East Anglia. Best storms mid-afternoon
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Got to say looking alot better today than it Did for yesterday/last night - better chance for severe storms in the South East/East Anglia. I think yesterdays activity (lack of) was due to the front hanging out further West than expected.
Will be keeping a close eye on storm reports - good development in East Anglia as I speak
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359 Users on just this thread, this is worse than a forecast for a "Beast from the East"
Later still looks the best chance for all of the South
You think? The GFS charts don't support anything. If the weather plays by what the charts say there won't even be a light shower to report in Eastern England, let alone ''severe storms and large hail''. The charts 3 days ago would support this, not now.
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For me huge dissapointment looking at the latest 12z charts, not supporting any organised activity across East Anglia tonight. I might be proved wrong but this could be one hell of a let down.
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Had a cm of slush on the roads and grass/roofs white after about an hour of intermittant heavy snow. Too warm to settle at the moment but if more snow arrives later I think it could be interesting
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Nothing crazy happening development wise around me today in EA but I'm hopeful the change in atmospheric conditions mid-late afternoon and some cooling may help. Either way development has been slow up to now - anticipating isolated storms later though. Keeping an eye on it! Tomorrow looking more promising as it stands..