artfularshavin
-
Posts
30 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by artfularshavin
-
-
im going for a cool winter at the very least,with some severe spells of coldness,most likely through late december..
-
artfularshavin..forecast for the months ahead!..
SEPTEMBER...a mixed month generally,with some dry and long sunny spells,mixed betwen showers and longer spells of rain.although it will be drier more often then not.temperatures wil be below average,particuarly towards the end of month.12-15 c
OCTOBER...wil start on quite a wet and windy note,particuarly in the west and north.and southwest.the south and east will be somewhat drier and brighter,still with showers here!..as we move through the month,from say the 15th-20th,high pressure will become dominant,and settle the weather down,into cool sunny days and nights.with just isolated showers about.frosts will become a feature. a cool end to the month!
NOVEMBER...a cool to cold start,with the same theme,frosts and fog..too dominate,so therefore plenty of dry weather around and quite pleasent with the HIGH sitting mainly rite over the uk.i then expect a slight change mid month,with the high moving into a west northwest position,and quite a keen wind form the north or northeast blowing down.this will eventually bring down snow showers to the north of england scotland..and eventually down the eastern side. it will be a cold month,temps well below average..6-7 in the south..2-5 in the north!
DECEMBER..chilly,at the very least with some hard to severe overnight frosts becoming quite common.snow will also.be a feature,particualry in the east,where accumalations well maybe become deep as the month progresses.i see quite a dismal month,in terms of temperatures,cold too rather cold throughout not much respite from the north and also from the east..again a very much below average month,with some sever spells of weather setting in,especially from mid month onwards! average temps..2-4 in south...1-3 in north!
JANUARY...a very cold january looks on the cards to me!..quite possibly a severe month to extreme..with consistant east to northeasterly winds,plenty of snow again..mainly in the east and north.with scotland especially seeing lots of the white stuff!..this will be the coldest month seen for many years in the uk i feel,a rather depressing month,i see people not being able to get out and do much things,too much snow and ice will be a hazard. a freezing january.is looking quite possible to me...temps..0-2 in the south...-3-1 in the north!! oh dear
-
my view on this coming winter.in the uk,,is one that will be very cold generally with some real harsh spells!,perhaps rivaling those which the countries across the continent have,i do feel ist possible we could have a winter this year like those in russia germany,and poland have...tha would be somthing rather special!.the reasons i give for this is that the atlantic.isnt that active anymore,so im feeling that high pressure will be a big player this winter,mostly witting too our north or northwest,causing huge amounts of northern blocking..with most of our weather coming from the east and north!! brrr...occasionally this will break down from the atlantic,so bring in week low pressure systems.but make no mistake the main features of this winter will be.......VERY COLD GENERALLY,PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME COLDNESS AT TIMES,EXPECT THE EAST OF THE COUNTRY TOO HAVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL,ALTHOUGH MOSTLY THE SNOW WILL NOT BE THE PROBLEM AS I SEE IT BEING A PRODOMINANTLY DRY WINTER,BUT WITH RECORD BREAKING TEMPS.! SO THE COLDNESS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER,THIS IS MY VIEW ON THE WINTER AHEAD!!
-
wow that is soo encouraging..only a small chance of it turning milder!! lol
-
Looks pretty average to me...
how you mean average lol! its showing dark blue for DEC and blue for JAN that mean below avg temps!
-
Well ithink its all been said. Well done guys,now lets see what happens.
i read on another site,that possibly come end of nov early dec we could be experiencing FRIGID TEMPERATURES!!
-
ok then thomas..so your not very confident about this winter? how do you think temperatures will come in? also the weather is acting quite strange i feel.moscow is actually quite mild.whilst oslo is freezing cold! very strange
-
oh really whitxmas? so how bad do you think this winter will be in terms of cold?
-
i do see it as a good forecast a bit dramatic but all in all its how i se things this winter! i cant stress how cold it may get this winter.. it could well be that we end up with a winter like europe had last year,i.e sustained cold 10-14 day severe spells where temps are like -2 /-4 in daytime and minus 10-15 c!overnight even when we dont get these spells,thigs will be cold at the least,more like 2-5c. my analaysis has given me that the coldest parts will be. from around the 10th DEC,to all the way too early january when things will be bitterly cold! we will hav joined in with europe,a brief less cold spell january midmonth.then watch out for february,i belive will be exceptionally cold! almost extreme..yes i know!! wowww
on that basis and just ideas and developments of what i can see coming.i have figures like these...
DEC-2.5 C
JAN-2.8 C
FEB-1.5 C BRRR!!!
-
haha well perhaps he is...
but i am with that view also.due to the winds coming from a east/southeast direction lot of the time,especially through december. again temps will go somthing like this....
NOV O.8 BELOW
DEC 2.5 BELOW
JAN 1.8 BELOW
FEB 1.5 BELOW
COLD!!!!!!!!!
-
I also agree with what Kevin has said. That bit about blizzards. I have only ever experienced one true Blizzard and that was in January 1984 where winds swept in at 60mph and it snowed continuously for 12 hours. Blizzards do not happen that often and certainly did not happen last year as there was no wind. Heavy snow with no wind is a white out and yes we have had dozens of those.
Anyway, I still think The Net weather Forecast is right, it explains that lack of energy that seems to be evident in the atlantic.
Cold cold cold, dry and settled.... look to the winter of 1993/94, if you want a comparison. That was very cold and dry and december was snowy.
so was that a very cold winter or not,and you are saying this winter will be similar? i believe this winter will be colder then last year,although a lot drier
-
There's Statistics and then there's Statistics. 3 Cold Winters in a row? It looks like it, with negative NAO, and a decreasing Gulf Stream, but surely not 3 winters in a row.
For me, we are in the same situation as last winter, apart from El Nino and La Nina, La Nina normally gives slightly milder winters than usual, but we don't know what'll happen when it reacts with a -NAO, which has been negative for a whole year now!
Despite all this, there's one thing that decides winter for me. One Battle.
Atlantic vs. Arctic & European winds.
Are you 'lukesluckybunch' on Met Monkey? Anyway, do you care to tell us why you have predicted such a cold winter?
yes i am,i do believe it will be mainly due to the jet stream being on holiday down south in africa somwhere lol-also winters ar generally cooling now.and i believe in weathergeeks theory.that within the next 5 ten years thins will be entering a mini ice age.its just logic aswell.i mean look how quiet the atlantic is now! its dru lot of the time
-
Statistically, it's likely to be an average winter. :lol:
[/quo
hi its luke,and yes i am for real on my forecast.its likely to be a terrible winter
-
ell i previously made a LRF winter forecast,but im making a few adjustments to it as i see things slightly differently now!
LUKES FORECAST:
i see NOVEMBER as being a fairly cool month overall not too cold more likely cool,temps 0-5c below average.although i wouldnt be suprised if the southeast in particular saw them pushing a tad lower,due to air coming off the cold continent at times.as i feel that a east,southeasterly wind will prevail a lot of the time. so basically the main weather features being messy drizzle on a often scale,but i do see things turning cold later on,possibly very cold towards month end so more like sleet by that time,no significant snow though i feel at this stage yet....
DECEMBER-i believe will be a month of two halfs,the weather the first 2-possibly 3 weeks! very cold bitter you could call it.with a big block established over UK.the winds alternating northwest north or anywhere from the east direction BRRR!! temps during this period very low day time likely 0-2 c nationwide,now on to the final part of december the weather turns nasty i feel,as we see low pressure taking over,no let up in the cold so large snow fall amounts always more to the south i feel.night time temps probly not as cold as the start of december due to cloud cover and unsettled conditions more likely -2 -3c overnight! what a cold month i feel! if things do develop the way i see it TEMPERATURES could well be as much as 2-2.5c! below the norm!
JANUARY-im not particuarly liking this month,very unsettled throughout i think with limited amounts of dry and bright weather,but with SNOW and cold weather always being the main talking points.this could be a very severe month i can not stress that more! i dont hav much more detail to put into this month,with the main focus though being snow and cold temperatures! most likely outcome,TEMPS below by 1-7 c! i dont think as cold as december,but a far more messy month with lots more snow!
going onto FEBRUARY im not so certain this far out,only it will continue cold all month just not too sure what pattern the weather will take.i have far more confidence in the previous months,though i suspect it wont be as bad as JANUARY weatherwise,but equally as cold! temperature values-again 1.5c below the average.
so to conclude all of this evidence, i can only see it going one way colder than last years very cold winter the worst of the temperatures in december a very cold month really! generally bitter throughout this winter though as you can see by my predicted temperature values.
here it is:
NOV 0-5C BELOW
DEC 2.5C BELOW!!
JAN 1.7C BELOW
FEB 1.5C BELOW
-
Can I ask when folks expect the Netweather Winter 2010 forecast to be available - another piece of the (snowlovers) jigsaw being slotted into place!
Thank you.
i am not too sure of the exact date,somtime in october though.i suspect it will be somewhat like last winters forecast.althought last year they said back to the 70's it was more like the 80's wasnt it.................................
-
why will it be coming off the continent,what,weak gulf stream,why
oh sorry,it is due to low pressure systems running south of the uk,introducing easterlies over the top of it. the weather will generally be blocked into a sustained cold.with the winds either from a north/northeast or east,most of the time.any break down will only mean slight less cold i wouldnt even use the word mild at all through this winter. as the best the atlantic with throw will be a light southerly flow at times. so the main source of our weather this winter will be from the east.
people comments on this post are very welcome.please x
-
You havent given any reasons why this winter will be severe.
well i think the reasons why it will be severe are that,mostly our weather will be coming off the continent,and europe will have a freezing winter too! so its quite obvious that the the weather will be coming from a VERY COLD source! where as before al we got was manly southwesterlys off the warm soggy atalntic! also europe predicted to have the coldest most severe winter for a 1000 years! theres too many things leaning towards the cold theme,to suggest otherwise! wait and see...
-
do believe that the atlantic is not as strong as it has been the last few years,im not talking about the last two winters just the other ones previously that were horrible mild windy and wet.it seems that even now when we get a westerly or southwesterly from the atlantic,its never too strong more of a weak 2 or 3 day affair at the best.its like it doesnt have much to give anymore,and most of our low pressures and weather systems seem to be coming from the south of us like off the near continent.interesting i feel the continent will influence our weather this winter and of course,europe is very rarely mild during the winter months,so it is all good news for the uk winter this year. i will say again expect LOWER TEMPERATURES then last year but i also think it will be dryer. you can say what you like but i firmly believe that this winter will be close to EXTREME! let alone SEVERE..due to the reasons i hav said above.
p.s im no expert but am learning and always look at the charts and things whenever possible
please can people comment and let me know what you honestly think to my post.
-
so what do you expect from this winter then? have PWS predicted a cold one?
-
What I find very interesting is the the persistent blocking to the northeast which has been there for
quite some time now. This in my opinion has everything to do with the prolonged weakened solar
activity that we are in. The theory is that prolonged low solar activity weakens the jet stream which
allows eddies to form, which in turn allows blocking highs to form blocking off the normal west to
east airflow, this will also act to steer the jet stream further south. This affect apparently is more
frequent across the north Atlantic and Europe. It is quite plausible to say that this has also aided
a return to a more negative phase of the AO and NAO although this will of course relax from time
to time.
It is now looking almost certain that we will have a dominant La Nina during the winter which
normally means more in the way of mid latitude ridging,low AAM and hopefully a weakened jet.
This should be very good news if a -NAO is to prevail this winter. As GP has mentioned the sst
tripole that is starting to show itself in the north Atlantic should help reinforce a -NAO index.
The tropics on the other hand are not looking as favorable for -NAO however and it will be very
interesting to see which forcing will be the stronger.
In regards to the coming winter I am of a growing opinion that a big winter is in store for northwestern
Russia, and Europe including the UK even though I do not expect to see the AO anywhere near
as negative as last year and the -NAO will likely be more east based leading to more in the way
of continental winter cold.
The models are showing a tendency in the longer outlook period for the AO and NAO index to turn
more negative this I think is due to slight warming in the lower stratosphere during the middle of
September which can be seen in the links below. Again similar to what happened last winter it looks
like a wave breaking into the lower stratosphere caused by a high pressure to the west of the USA
pushing tropical air north.
http://www.cpc.noaa....k/MJO/mjo.shtml
On the 500hpa and 200hpa heights and wind panel click on global 200.
mm very interesting to hear your winter prediction there.so how do you think the temperatures will average this winter over the three months?
-
im assuming net weather will be making the forecast,but i think positive wetaher solutions team up with them lol
-
good point when do you think the update is coming?
-
mm im going with 10.5C
-
exactly snowlover what is he talking about lol
haha ok cyclonic.may i ask if we had a high to our northwest where wud the winds predominantly come from?
quick post wherever the hign is situated the winds tend to come around the edge of it .
Model Output Discussion - 21st - 28th November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
make no mistake there is a certain trent for things too cool down the back end of this month going into early december.now then just how cold i wouldnt quite know just yet,although i do have a feeling that it may well turn out with day time temps 7/8c in the south and 5/6c in the north,although scotland may be especially colder!as for overnight temps i wouldnt se them that low,perhaps 2/3c on the colder nights,as the weather will be for the most part unsetlled with plenty of cloud around.