A Winter's Tale
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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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It's very surreal looking at the charts for next week. The sort of Synoptics we're looking usually appear in the long range and occasionally in the semi-reliable (That ECM in 2012) and never transpire. The magnitude of the cold is something to behold with uppers close to -15C and below -10C for a number of days.
I've been looking at some of the archives of previous notable cold spells. The uppers tend to range from -6C to -12C, generally -8C to -10C. Some of the lowest temperatures have occurred without particulary low uppers. A lot of the major cold spells and easterlies have occurred during spells with high pressure predominately to the NW. Many snow lovers (especially south of the border) have heralded and longed for a proper Scandinavian High which has been illusive for over a quarter of century. There have been some fairly potent easterlies (early Feb 2009) but nothing on the scale as what's being modelled for next week. The 11th of March 2013 was pretty potent for eastern Scotland for a brief time. It would appear the last time parts of the UK experienced something like this was February 1991.
The most notable easterly I've experienced was November 2010, with the 28th being the last event with more than 20cm falling, courtesy of High pressure to the NW like many of the best cold spells in my lifetime. Having read about the hype of a Scandinavian high during my time on netweather it's refreshing and interesting to be on the cusp of the first major cold spell courtesy of a Scandi High during my lifetime. Since following the models in the last seven years, there's a degree of trepidation about getting High pressure to the NE to sufficiently deliver proper cold to these shores (the failed easterly of Feb 2012 springs to mind). Thankfully a different story this time with much of the UK in the firing line. I'm intruiged and excited to see if this spell/set up lives up to the hype and what the end result /impact will be if the potential in the charts transpires.
This has the potential to be the most potent easterly for Scotland since 1987.
March 2013 was the coldest for over 50 years with most of the cold occurring in the second half of the month - it snowed on consecutive days for two weeks. A cold spell of that duration so late in the season was unprecedented and tore up the rule book for what was perceived to be possible in Spring, just as November 2010 was for autumn. 5 years on and we're nearing the first notable cold spell since then. This time it's more potent and occurring two weeks earlier. This is setting up to be for many the most significant cold spell and severe snow since 2010 - perhaps longer in some places. Just as November 2010 was notable for severe early winter weather this spell could be same for late winter. In the last 20 or so years many of the most significant cold spells have occurred in the first half of the winter with very little of note after mid January with the exception of perhaps 2009 and 2013. March is no stranger to large snowfalls (2006 was the largest I've seen, 2010 and 2013 in other areas) while late February has seen very little notable cold and snow - 2001 the most significant while 2005 saw an easterly. The charts we are currently looking at are extraordinary given we haven't seen a cold spell of this magnitude for some time and it's totally unprecedented this late in the season.
This has the potential to be incredible for some. We are looking at an easterly delivering the coldest uppers reaching our shores in a long time. Despite the North Sea being colder than it was in November 2010, the uppers are much colder and a stronger sun could enhance convection. Some people in eastern Scotland are in for something special from the easterly alone. I'm looking forward to people's reports from eastern areas in what could be a historic event - making up for this winter being much kinder to west for snow. I've had a more than decent fix of snow this winter with lying snow in each month since November, with falls in excess of 2 inches in December and January, but just 2cm this month. It would be nice to get another couple of inches before the end of the month - I don't think I've seen a winter with 5cm in each month - and lying snow in a fifth consecutive month in March - that would be the icing on the cake of a fantastic winter. I'd be more apprehensive following this cold spell if this winter was less productive, however given the potential so tantalisingly close I'm hoping I could be lucky with this cold spell as I was in 2010 with more than 25cm of snow. Since then, only last month saw a total of 10cm of snow, anything more than that would be great. As ever the case with snow in these parts, especially from an easterly, there's a sense of trepidation. The time of year with the colder North Sea and the stronger sun makes me less confident but I'm hoping that there'll be enough convection and other features in the flown to bring the snow to western areas. After the easterly there's the prospect of frontal snow in a breakdown though it's too early to focus on as details and timing will change and we have an easterly to look forward to before hand.
There's the potential for some very cold temperatures aswell. If the SSW had occurred earlier, we'd be looking at potentially the coldest February since 1986. The record coldest March temperature of -22.8C is unlikely to be beaten though we could still see some very cold temperatures over snow fields in the highlands. The coldest maximum of -4.6C is beatable - the BBC are showing highs of -4C in Braemar. At Glasgow airport, the coldest March minimum is -9C, coldest maximum 1C and mean -3C.
Hopefully the fantastic charts keep on coming and transpire to deliver a memorable event for all us. I'm intrigued to see what we end up with if this event delivers and it'll be fun finding out.
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As expected the models are showing different solutions for the cold spell, with some shifts south and north and the uppers not as cold as previous runs (for parts of England at least). The charts are still impressive with a very cold easterly and most solutions look pretty decent for snow chances. Eastern areas are looking good for snow in most scenarios being modelled, it's just a question of how much snow will fall and how far inland. At the moment I think even my chances of seeing some snow are quite good although this could change depending on whether the set up is conducive enough for convective snow showers. Some charts have shown the potential for frontal snowfall coming into play, so there could be more oppurtunities for snow if the easterly doesn't deliver. A prolonged cold spell isn't looking likely at the moment but it's too early to be thinking about the breakdown with cold set to arrive next week and hopefully plenty of snow will follow. There's the potential for further upgrades with some recent runs showing very cold upper air in Scandinavia with uppers close to -20C not far away from the Shetland Islands, which is extraordinary for the end of winter.
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A high of 12C at Glasgow airport is the eighteenth double digit maxima this winter - as many as December 2015 alone and comparable to the totals of 2013 and 2015. Last winter had 37 highs above 10C, 2009/10 has just 4.
We haven't yet experienced the prolonged cold of other winters and mean temperatures for December and January in Scotland are around average with two sub 3C months for the first time since 2015, with December and January the coldest since 2012 and 2011 respectively. Despite being an 'average' winter in terms of temperature, this is probably the best winter since 2010/11. 2012/2013 perhaps had more prolonged spells of cold weather with more blocking and two weeks of days with consecutive snowfall in March 2013, while the second half of January 2015 had the best part of two weeks of lying snow.
Despite any blocking of note, and before the SSW earlier this month, this winter has seen much shorter and infrequent mild spells in comparison to recent winters with a theme of recurring cold and snow spells. The cold began in November, with many frosts and the first falling and lying snow occurring later in the month. Early December saw the coldest maximum temperature and first White Christmas since 2010, and the largest December snowfall since 2011. January saw the coldest minimum and most significant week of snow since 2010 with snow falling on seven consecutive days. The first snowfall was the largest since December 6 2010, and largest January snowfall in a long time with 9cm. Smaller falls of snow followed concluding with 5cm, bringing the total to 10cm, the largest in January since 2010. This month has paled in comparison, with 2cm on a couple of occasions.
Remarkably, all of the snow has been sourced from the Atlantic rather than an Arctic or continental airmass. Polar westerlies tend to be more frequent than northerly or easterly winds and also tend to be more reliable in delivering measurable snowfalls. The most potent polar westerlies can deliver some of the best snow events with inches of fine snow, while less potent can deliver decent but more modest falls of a few cm, some can deliver very little with either miserable non events with damp, dull windy conditions or more pleasant spells of winter sunshine. This winter has seen a mixture of these characteristics, with greater frequency which had resulted in greater success of the number and quality of snow events. More prolonged or potent cold spells with blocking - possibly aided by the stratospheric warming events - with easterly or northerly winds may deliver deeper cold and snow totals, but this winter has shown you can have a productive and fulfilling winter with more ordinary Synoptics.
It kind of feels strange but I feel quite relaxed about the upcoming cold spell courtesy of time SSW as it feels like a bonus to an already successful winter. Personally, I wish the SSW happened a month earlier, but March 2013 showed you can have a significant cold spell during Spring, and despite the stronger sun, March can offer further snowfall oppurtunities with the biggest snowfall I've experienced coming in 2006.
I've stopped reading the Model Thread after some of the madness earlier in the season until today to see the extreme levels of excitement and the charts on offer. The charts are full of potential, with I presume some of the best Synoptics in a long time (although I recall -15C uppers in March 2013) - especially for parts of England. It's quite remarkable to be looking at an air mass that cold at the tail end of winter though it's less surprising after 2013. After reading some posts in the MT writing off winter because of the illusive easterly, the current charts are a reminder that just as a football match isn't won or lost until after 90 minutes are played, winter can deliver its best and the sort of Synoptics people crave for at the very end or later.
I'm keeping my expectations low for this upcoming cold spell low in terms of how cold and snowy and for how long. After seeing lying snow on numerous occasions in each month since November, it'd be nice to see some more in March although I'm less fussed after having more than a fair share of snowfall this winter. Easterlies can deliver for Glasgow and western areas, with over 20cm in November 2010, though we tend to miss out on a lot of the action. I'm not expecting much, considering the time of year with cooler SSTs and a stronger sun than In 2010, although the uppers appear to be colder. It'll be very interesting to see what the models show in the coming days and what transpires from this spell. Hopefully a memorable one for many, especially for eastern parts that missed out on a lot of the action this winter.
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A covering of a couple of cm this morning.
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Much better than expected with snow depth varying between 5-10cm. snow easing off now.
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Wet snow melting the cover from earlier this evening.
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There was still a good covering on the grass and some other surfaces, patchy covering on roofs and barely any on walls and trees but now everything is back to white with heavy snow.
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Snow shower coming through now.
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Sleet just now and thawing snow cover varying between 3-7cm.
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Despite the front seeming to be further north than forecast I can't say I'm confident of adding more snow to the current total. It'll probably start as rain and any snow will be light and wet. However, parts of southern Scotland including Ayrshire and Lanarkshire could see quite heavy and prolonged snowfall, especially in the amber warning area.
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11 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:
The low tomorrow night is looking slightly too far south to be very useful for many of us although a small jump north brings some of us into the firing line. It's close:
After today's snow it would have been fantastic to have a frontal snowfall deliver at least another couple of inches to the total. At least we don't have to worry about the mild sector and there are other opportunities for snow during the rest of the week - Sunday could see snow on leading edge of the front.
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Best snowfall since 2010 with 9cm
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More than 4cm currently.
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I've been following this polar westerly since it first appeared in the models but only now I'm starting to feel quite excited. The charts have shown a lot of potential for a while and despite the complications of Thursday's low, the models have been quite consistent. Polar westerlies have delivered some memorable snow falls, quite recently in January 2015 with with falls of 5cm and 7cm, though generally they tend to be hit or miss. This looks to be particulary potent and quite prolonged -Met Office have snow symbols from this evening into the early hours of Wednesday and loads of heavy snow symbols aswell. I'm hopeful of at least a healthy covering of up to a couple of inches but given the potential in this set-up I'd be delighted with more than 8cm which would be the best since 2010. The low during Wednesday night is very interesting and one to keep an eye on - if it doesn't track to far north then many of could see another hefty snowfall.
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A covering of roughly 5-6cm which is the best since January 2015 and the first proper lying snow in December since 2012.
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It started snowing lightly around 4am - at least 2cm on the ground.
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Proper snow falling now
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Merry Christmas everyone. The precipitation is starting to turn a bit wintry here in Bearsden so there's hope for the first official white Christmas in Glasgow since 2010.
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Precipitation turned wintry for a time in the last shower - much earlier than expected. Really changeable conditions today now a sunny winter's afternoon after a dark morning. Not expecting much in terms of snow showers in this area but it's nice have some proper December cold after recent years. A really cold airmass over us for the next couple of days and oppurtunities for some snow as cold weather persists into next week and possibly beyond. Nothing exceptional but certainly much more interesting than recent years.
The last time there was any measurable lying snow here in December was in 2012. The covering of snow at the end of last month and the beginning of last November are the only occasions snow has settled here before mid January since 2013. It's always nice to have some snow before (or after) the meteorological winter and to have a covering is a bonus if nothing exceptional - although the hefty snowfall to accompany it was impressive. The last two November's have been quite similar with a quiet atlantic and a fair bit of frost and some snow and potential for blocking in the models. The models in the last few weeks have been fascinating to watch. The outlook has varied between mid atlantic high and northerly topplers, to full on blocking and deep cold, to an amplified pattern and frequent cold incursions with the jet tracking south to heights over Europe and mild SWlys. The hemispheric set up has been intriguing aswell and how it evolves over the next couple of weeks will as we head towards the festive period (how the PV over Canada behaves will be of interest).
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A covering of snow after rain/sleet turned into pretty heavy snowfall with large flakes.
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Irma is now a Category 5 Hurricane again with sustained winds of around 160mph. It looks close to making a landfall around the Cuban keys.
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I remember coming across this article after Harvey. Just over a week later and potentially we have a catastrophic Category 4/5 hurricane heading for the south of Florida and some models show a worst case scenario of Miami within the NE quadrant of the storm.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/whats-the-next-houston/538200/
Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
First snowflakes arriving now.