Jay Lad

Usually the coldest part of Greater Manchester for minimum temperatures is around the area where the coldest temperature of last winter occured so probably around the area of Woodford near Stockport, the cold filters down off the Pennines over that particular area which sharply falls in elevation, also it is not in the busy city centre, the city centre and nearby being low down should be a frost bowl but with the warmth from the thousands of buildings it obviously isn't. The snowiest part of Greater Manchester is most of the time reserved to the NE part, particularly the villages of Saddleworth, the villages of Diggle and Denshaw would be a sure fire bet for the snowiest award. The boroughs of Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside coming not far behind., also these areas are usually colder with the maximum temperatures throughout the year on average in Gtr Manchester. We have a very varied climate to say the least!

Manchester Airport is only about 69m asl, wheras Sheffield is on average 140m above sea level so in turn elevation helps. It's also noteworthy about where I live, I live about 14 miles from Manchester Airport and it can be a blizzard here but rain at the airport, sometimes I have the same weather as West Yorks yet I am classed as in Greater Manchester. So with a difference of about 350 feet between here in the Pennines and the airport it can make a huge difference. My family live between 200-240 feet lower then where I live, just a few towns away and the snow melts quicker than here, about a week earlier. So you have to go about 200 feet higher and the weather can change quite dramatically here in the UK.

True but the last time it snowed here in May was in 1996 and that was only about 2cm if that...........we had a decent snowfall in late March 2008 woke up one morning to a good 5 inches but by the end of the day it had all melted in the warmish sun, personally Northerlies are crap here in this part of the region, you may do better in Cumbria as your further west - we are too sheltered here in the Pennines as all we get is sunshine from a Northerly with little cloud........we do far far better from an Easterly or a weather system off the Atlantic bumping into the cold air, for northerly the North York moors are prob the best place to be along with the Cairngorms and probably Snowdonia

I hate to say it but I think Monday may be the last chance for any measurable snow (unless you move to the Scottish Highlands), looking at the models it keeps putting back any real cold each day and now sends it almost into March and beyond, If it wasn't for December this winter would of been boring, so thank god for that. The sun is now noticeably stronger, the days are getting longer, it feels positively springlike with even the birds are chirping more now.

Well it's still on for now, the cold that is. My link By this time next week we *could* be under Siberian air with a strong Easterly, which 99% of the time I do great from, not sure about the snow chance in the west of the region though in terms of significance

I've recored 71mm over the past 2 days, then again I am a high level area, Buxton has had almost 90mm I think.

What a turn around over the last week or so, look at these runs My link My link My link - bitterly cold East to North East winds, also to note the operational and control runs for London are basically showing us something we haven't seen since Jan 1987. It could certainly change but the enphasis on the cold is growing. The Met office have also now updated their long term forecast to cold and even very cold.

Lashing it down out there, small branches broken and blown onto the road. Must be easily gusting to 60mph now.

Definately, but they are by far the best runs for about 5 weeks, so certainly encouraging.

Ladies and Gents, a *possible* return to the freezer by the 12th take a look at these charts from both links My link My link

We can all hope yes

About 95% of the time that's not the case, when cold snowy weather exits the USA and Canada and makes it way across the Atlantic it gets moderated by the mild gulf stream which in turn brings rain once it arrives in the UK rather than snow, infact what we have had today was from the USA and originally it was snow when it was across the Eastern part of the US. And what we get this week coming up will also be from the USA and it will be rain, unfortunately.

Don't give up hope yet - I have pictures of April 1981 (when I was almost 2) when we had about two feet in as many days, the week before it was warm apparently, so don't fret people it's only Feb.....looking for sustained cold? it's getting a bit late for that especially by the end of this month, but for snow it's not, I've known a covering of snow as late as May here.

Your quite a bit further North which makes the sun less strong at all times of the year than here.

Snow would last a day in April yes, you can also get slight sun burn in April from direct sunlight, but if it were Dec it'll be more likely last up to 2 weeks dependent on tempertaure as we've seen during this winter. The sun has literally no affect in Dec, same with early and mid Jan and all of Nov. Snow would last a few days in Feb but only dependant on temperature, in 1963 the only reason it lasted longer on the ground in Feb was it snowed on nearly every day in that month so it was bound to stick around after a cm or 2 a day even if the sun was gaining alot of strength compared to in early winter. There is also more areas in later winter and into spring where the sun can get to as it is higher in the sky, already it's getting into the corners of my garden where it didn't in Dec, infact I felt a bit of warmth from it today which I haven't felt since about late October.

If your looking for "deep cold" like we had in late Nov and into Dec it is now looking less likely looking at the models, it's a shame BUT we have to think how good it were back in those months, the longer this goes on as it is at the moment it's letting the sun grow stronger by the day and by Feb it's actually getting quite high in the sky so anything that falls will melt much quicker than in Dec. Have a look at this it tells you the height of the Sun during each day of the year by looking at "Altitude" under Solar Noon on the right of the page: Sun strength, sunrise and sunset times UK cities By mid Feb as you can see it's as high as 24 degrees, compare that with just 13 in Dec, about 6 degrees is a huge difference in the Sun's ability to warm the Earth's surface. So we are slowly running out of time for any sustained cold and lasting snow cover.

1072 ft - you might aswell be Everest base camp at that height :lol: - according to the Met Office land in the UK that is at or above 150m/492 ft is classed as high ground, so basically where you live you have passed that twice over!

Met Office have updated their long range forecast and have basically concluded that we are headed for much colder spell of weather from around the 22nd onwards. Hopefully this will set the scene for the temps to fall into Dec. Sounds to me like their thinking high pressure will be situated to the north-west of the UK and it will drag bitter east winds across us - Here's hoping for a Dec like 1981 but that's a bit ambitious at this stage <_< I like to remain cautious about most things incase they don't turn out how I hope! as I really don't think this winter will be as cold/snowy as the last. Don't get me wrong I don't think it will be a mild one but I reckon it'll be more of a boring average one with average snow and average temps but things hopefully might change. Although at my elevation of over 500 ft we do usually get a decent fall every year wheras only 2 miles away where my family live in areas between 200-230 ft lower than me don't get anywhere near as much as me. Just shows how elevation can matter, although the general rule of thumb in the UK is the further north you go, the further east you go and the higher you go determines how cold/snowy it generally is.

From the Met Office UK Outlook for Monday 25 Oct 2010 to Monday 8 Nov 2010: Generally changeable at first, especially in the north, with the best of any drier, brighter weather in the south and southwest. As the period evolves, the best brightness is expected to spread across the west of the country, with above average sunshine here. By contrast the east should see nearer normal values. In terms of rainfall, the north of the country is expected to be drier than would be typical for autumn, with perhaps higher rainfall towards the southeast. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be well below average for the time of year, with overnight frost likely. "Well below average?" hmmmm can we trust these guys from a .gov department?

True even the southerners here don't know that kind of sustained heat!, Still... I don't think the Ushanka's will be coming out though for the Muscovites.

Looking promising over Eastern Europe later this week and into next week although nothing extreme by their standards, the "cold" air won't get any further west than Poland by the looks of it, so at this stage it looks like it won't even get to Berlin never mind Britain. some early light snow possible mainly over European Russia, Red Square could have a dusting. Only 5C for a Maximum in Russia's capital on Tuesday 12th, still even this nothing out of the ordinary for an October day there.

I agree with some of the posts on here about how the Manchester area doesn't get as much snow as we really should apart from last Jan but it is a very varied place, living in a place which the Met Office deems as high ground (anywhere 150m and above). You'd expect due my elevation on the Pennine slopes, northerly latitude and being as far east as Hexham in the N.E to get decent amounts , I've noticed that where I am we do better in easterly snows but again it just depends for some reason. Also we tend to do well when a system moves in from the west and "bumps" into the cold air....with nothing high enough obstructing it. I shouldn't really complain though, the rest of my family live just a few miles away ranging from around 90m to 100m asl and I do tend to get around twice as much as them per year and it also lasts on the ground for far longer where I am , so even a difference of over 200 feet/60 metres has an effect in this neck of the woods. Manchester is complex in terms of weather.