BarometerBunts
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Posts posted by BarometerBunts
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Reading the model outputs and following this thread , noone can deny it has been a long hard slog. Models, to some extent reached a level agreement for cold, albeit tenuously just in time for the SSW to start making its presence felt at lower levels. I may be wrong but suspect that SSW interaction and uncertain influence is, at least for the next couple of days going to shake things up with models reverting to more extreme variables. My feeling is that whilst there are so many positives for a cold spell, people are now seeking the intricate detail ie: will it snow imby. Too soon imo. The only way to stay sane is to look for trends/patterns for the next few runs until models settle down. It has been said many times on here in Winters past - "let the cold come in first and then see what follows" This is so true. As a mere layperson, I am quietly optimistic that we may just see something special. I could be very wrong but if nothing else, I am happy to have witnessed some spectacular charts over the last couple of weeks which puts us in a far better position than Winters a few years ago.
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I think the "Big Daddy" needs to go take himself off down the pub and come home when he can play nicely!
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the the Shannon entropy
this link will keep you occupied for a while
http://www.bing.com/...Box&FORM=IE8SRC
What is entropy used to be a favourite on Met O promotion boards-I suspected it was because even the senior staff wanted someone to give them a simple accurate explanation!
My very simple explanation would have been: It's when the Supercomputer says WTF
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Hats off to all of you on here. You have my utmost respect. It has taken at least two years for me to get my head around your science and I doubt I will ever truly understand it but it is so nice to see you guys reaping the rewards. Always look foward to your posts.
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Have just finished explaining to my husband my "Harry Met Sally" moment sat at my desk. Worth all the tears and tantrums and pages of despair. Would go through it all again if this comes off. Once again, kudos to Chio, GP and all NW experts for their anaysis, and to the mods for their patience. Guess we have to just hope that the models continue this trend with little, if any backtrack - wow!
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SM, please don't take this the wrong way but you have just moved, lost your Internet during an impending SSW event, spent £15 on a dongle thingy to see you through until set up properly and the first run of charts following this are not the best. Think I would be stressed under those circumstances and less tolerant of some of the comments that have been posted. That said, UK is undergoing a pattern change, it will be get colder and surely this is a step in the right direction? I believe the greater variance run to run is an indicator that there is difficulty getting to grips with this SSW and potential outcome. Suspect another few runs might show clarity
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Was just explaining to my husband a rudimentary description of what was happening in the stratosphere and how it MIGHT have implications regarding a pattern change in our weather when John Hammond makes a mention at the end of his forecast. Thanks to you guys my husband thinks I am a genius lol. So proud to be a part of the netweather community. We are all going to seem like experts when joe public catches on to the emerging links between our weather on the World up there and we can grasp the concept in laymans terms thanks to the educational posts of the likes of Chiono, GP and our favourite experts on here
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When we saw those fantastic Synoptics about a week ago which people kept as screen savers, it was agreed by those level headed members that we could only really accept downgrades on such perfection. Well this is just the opposite. There is no denying things don't look positive BUT conversely, surely we can be equally level headed and realise that these models can and will upgrade. I am not hearing any singing and there are no fat ladies around so let's have a little faith and try not to get addicted to the prozac in the meantime.
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We are all on a car journey and the weather is the driver. Sometimes it feels as if we are alll kids on the backseat screaming "are we there yet?" whilst the more learned on here are the front seat passengers asking for patience.
The sat nav destination is set. We just have to avoid roadworks and traffic jams and hope for a smooth journey to cold!
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Shed loads of acorns on the ground in Cumbria.... Could this mean a harsh inter beckons......
Have an oak tree near your house? Noticed the ground of your yard, driveway, or porch overrun with acorns? If so, folklore predicts that these same surfaces may be blanketed by snow this winter.
Not only the acorn, but its connoisseur--the squirrel--is also linked to winter weather. If squirrels are more active than usual, it's considered an indication that a severe winter is on its way. And its no wonder why. During the autumn and winter season, a squirrel's main task is gathering nuts and seeds for its storehouse, so if its efforts have noticeably increased, it could only mean he's preparing for the worst.
Squirrels gathering nuts in a flurry
I have heard this and always keep an eye on the squirrels. Have two pairs in our garden and in the last couple of days they have been going mental, even risking the patio (to the annoyance of cats). Another thing to check is how bushy their tails are!
Will cause snow to gather in a hurry.
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I EXPECT tears and tantrums on this forum. HOPE there aren't too many Prozac moments and WISH for a wintry winter. Think we will require a lot of patience...... GP has posted some positive elements re set up for Winter but we cannot expect Winter to deliver before it has even started. Some comments would lead you to believe it was January/February with Spring around the corner.
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TEITS is a valued member of this forum and has plenty to offer, especially when it comes to wintry scenarios where his experience is worth plenty. however, members are bound to be frustrated when supporting evidence is posted that isnt actually correct. i dont blame Dave for his initial post as its what he feels but i also respect others for defending themselves when the evidence was very shaky. as long as respect is shown in posts then i dont see a problem with healthy debate.
I have to say when I read TEITS post I endorsed it because I interpreted what he was trying to say was that even the creme de la creme of netweather could not always foresee our weather even with all the varied charts/methods at their disposal. As an admirer of these experts, I genuinely was surprised at how this post had been interpreted. Perhaps the helpful message to newbies could have been posed in alternative way but I genuinely do not think it was a deliberate dig. I look forward to reading ALL posts during the upcoming winter and pray that the only cold felt will be outside and not within the forum. Keep up the good work.
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It crossed my mind initially given that it was higher temps than norm but they were noshing on acorns and collecting them. No jiggy jiggy I'm happy to report.
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Happy to inform that my squirrels are going nuts (excuse the pun). Observed them a couple of days ago going hell for leather all day running around the grounds and up trees. Have two pairs in residence
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Currently 14 degrees with a hazy moon after a day of weather that could best be described as nondescript
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I am getting the feeling of deja vu here. Models seem to be flip flopping from run to run and speaking from a layperson's point of view having followed this thread for a couple of years, I recall two very salient observations. Firstly, more often than not when models appear very diverse, there appears that a change is imminent and secondly I vaguely recall someone saying "let the cold come and the rest will follow". If as a coldie we are seeking the holy grail then imo the grandaddy of them all started just after Christmas (and I wasn't born then for the record) and lasted for months. I can fully understand frustrations if we were in the first/second week of December but we are not. This is Autumn and I don't look out of my window and see Spring or Summer. Let's just enjoy the experience and learn from those who are kind enough to teach.
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1. When Will the First -7C be Reached: 18th December
2. When Will the First -10C be Reached: 21st December
3. Will -15C be Reached: 28th December
4. When is the First Ice Day going to Happen: 18th December
5. When is the first City Snowfall Going to take Place: 27th December
6. What will be the Lowest Temperature: -20
7. The Coldest Month of the Winter: January
8. How many Nights below 0C: 22
9. Will there be a White Christmas: Yes
10. The largest Snow Depth of the Winter: 45CM
11. Will there be a Big Freeze: Yes
12. Will there be a Sub Zero Month: No
13. What Will be the Mean Temperature for the Winter: 2.8
14. How many Snow Lying Days will Your Location Have: 22 (well one can dream)
15. How many Snowfalls will you Have: 34 (zzzzzzz)
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Hi,
This is just an observation. MB, I think I understand where you are coming from in terms of testing your methods and sort of understand why you wish to concentrate on detailed forecasts and not reveal too much at this stage.
However, I can also understand why some on here appear frustrated at the lack of information, albeit some have been more tactful than others.
Whilst I appreciate that you have explained you are very busy, I do think it may be prudent, if you are serious about testing your accuracy, to seriously contemplate more regular forecasts, at regular intervals and maybe not restrict to extreme events. For example, over on the model discussion forum, there is frequent argument about FI, the period of time which is technically outside the realms of reliable forecast. Would it be possible for you to perhaps forecast five/six days ahead. If you chose a set day and time to do this on a regular basis, it could be controlled and you would have the benefit of this forum to monitor and assist in terms of data collection.
This way, your accuracy could be monitored and it would give you more of an idea as to whether your method needed tweaking (or not)
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Thank you John for a most informative synopsis of our current weather and its potential for the next couple of weeks. I find the models absolutely fascinating and feel very fortunate to be witnessing such synoptics together with professional explanations and guidance suitable for the lay person.
I find GP's and Ch's ability to interpret the "bigger picture" very impressive and am stunned by the accuracy.
Thanks for your input. Certainly makes the learning curve seem less steep!
Regards
BB
South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>
in Regional
Posted
Morning 0c in Mid Devon with fog. Visibility very low in places.