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snowmore

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Posts posted by snowmore

  1. Happy New Year folks. Metcheck is nice to look at sometimes but I wouldn't pin any hopes on it as those charts change with the model outputs several times a day.

    Your right there, it doesn't look as good this evening. Hopefully we get a few snowy days out of this SSW, pereferably with a weekend in the middle :-)

  2. I tried to find his previous winter forecasts but they don't appear to be on his site.

    Also I am not impressed with his strat thoughts. He sees the linkage but then refuses to factor it in - instead deeming it ludicrous. Well I am sure the met office don't agree having spent a fortune including the strat measurements into their latest computer modelling!

    http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1675

    http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1723

    http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1821

    http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1873

    I cannot find 2010/11

    Stratospheric temperature forecasts

    In simple terms stratospheric warming is believed to encourage northern blocking. The problem is forecasting stratospheric temperatures, and fully understanding the time lag and how to use this as a forecasting tool for a small part of the Earth such as the UK.

    Conclusion

    Whilst I'm interested, I don't currently think it's possible to draw conclusions in this area, so to me there is no strong signal.

    To me it doesn't sound like he is dismissing the strat, it just looks like he doesn't know enough about it to factor it in.

    I have not been following his forecasts in the past, so I can't speak for his reliability.

    This is my first post, so please go easy on me :-)

    I am a newbie(but have loved weather since I was a child). I have been following the threads on this forum for the last couple of months and have really enjoyed learning from you guy's :-)

    James smiliz19.gif

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