WaitingForMackerel
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Posts posted by WaitingForMackerel
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Pretty rough here. Been gusting to 50mph for the last few hours with the odd 58mph gust thrown in. Mean windspeed has maxed at 47mph. Just had one gust of 60mph as i was writing this, the last half hour has been noticably worse. Its 11.3C, pressure at 995.8 hpa has been falling but looks to be stabilising slightly.
Hope it does not get to much worse, my home shakes too much !
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Distribution of aftershocks
Most aftershocks are located over the full area of fault rupture and either occur along the fault plane itself or along other faults within the volume affected by the strain associated with the main shock. Typically, aftershocks are found up to a distance equal to the rupture length away from the fault plane.
The pattern of aftershocks helps confirm the size of area that slipped during the main shock. In the case of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2008 Sichuan earthquake the aftershock distribution shows in both cases that the epicenter (where the rupture initiated) lies to one end of the final area of slip, implying strongly asymmetric rupture propagation.
To quote Wikipedia
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Seems to me from what i have read that the correct categorisation of an aftershock/precursor cant be done untill after the event. The previous posts have got the right idea, if a given shock is after a larger one it is called an aftershock, if a small quake is followed by a larger one it becomes a precursor. Some times a shock might be considered the main quake only to be superseeded by a larger one and reclassified as a precursor. They would also have to occour in the same region of the main quake.
There is a statistical distibution of aftershocks called Omuri's law, Baths law and the Gutenberg-Richter law, but it would be incorrect to suggest that these are wholly accurate. They are statistical relationships that best match the recorded data rather that being based in the science of the earthquake zone.
Anyway it all seems pretty vague. What i am trying to get at is that no quake can be accurately classified at the time of the quake. It can only be done when following quakes have been recorded and it position in the sequence can be correctly described.
Its all on here
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Couple of pics of the advancing front.
Thats looking east
looking west
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Thought i would drop in some currrent conditions.
No particular increase in wind speed as such, but deffinately more movement in the air. whooshing has got louder.
15-35mph south/southwesterly, pressure has just started dropping, 0.8 hpa in last 20 min . 6.3c. Just had a small rain shower
Have been following the low over ireland which just skirts my location, met office forcast for milford haven has been slowly pushing its main pulse for here later. It has just increased the wind speed slightly and forcast it to last for a longer period.
Not expecting anything dramatic, but it gives me something to focus my attention
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I am keeping a close eye on that pulse of wind that moves over the south west at about 6-9pm tomorrow evening. This latest gfs run has moved it slightly north, this change seems to bring it more into line with what the met have forcast for tomorrow. As it stands gfs will have the section of low wind speed going over my head, but a small shift northwards will make a massive difference.
Today has been pretty uneventful, not much rain, just howling 40mph westerlies with the odd half hour howling at 50+mph, not very gusty either, 10mph difference between mean and gust.
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Well that was an eventful night, i did manage to get a few hours sleep in. Those squalls cetainly keep you on your toes. My eyes have not fully booted up, its a right struggle to focus on the screen.
Another rough day forcast here, met offfice have it peaking late afternoon with winds into the 70mph area, that is a worsening of the forcast compared to yesterday. Wed looks to be blustery, with winds into the 40's. Looks like lots of heavy showeres blowing in off of the irish sea As for friday, well they have totally scrubbed anything off of the forcast for here, they have 40-45mph westerlies/north westerlies. Thats the first downgrading of the forcast for friday since it appeared on their radar.
Wind just gone up a notch. Current conditions wind SW 35mph(mean) 48mph(gust), temp 6.2c, pressure rising slowly 987.9 mbar.
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Fair dos, this is pretty nasty, super gusty, just had 60mph, dead on westerly. temp has dropped now at 6.1c, pressure is pretty stable. This has got my heart racing. Its dying off a little now thankfully
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All hell has just broken loose here. Been hapily dozeing, then out of nowhere rain and gusting to 51mph.
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Raining pretty heavy again, not squally, wind ambleing along at force 5-6. Temp has crept down to 8.4c. Pressue is relativly stable at the moment, maybe dropping very slowly.
Just sort of waiting for it to pick up again, would hope to see an improvement by 3am. Think there will just be blustery bands of rain blowing in from the irish sea every hour or so till then.
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Temp droped down to 8.7c but its gone up to 9.4 now , about 15 min apart. Before the squall it was 11.3c
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I just had a really nasty squal come in off the irish sea, easy to see on the radar, temp droped 2.5c in about 15 minute.
does that constitute a cold front ?
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Still raining, but it feels like the wind is easing off now. Been gusting into the low fifties(mph) from about 3pm-6pm, maxed out at 54mph at around 5.30pm. Its now in the low thirties. The wind has also shifted from south to south west. Pressure looks like it is stabilising, been droping about 2-3 mbar per hour since lunchtime, 986.6mbar now. Temp is 11C.
Looks like that'll be the worst of it here till tomorrow. Wind might start picking up in the early hours of the morning.
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Just broken the 50 mark with 51mph gust at 3.08 pm
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Currently gusting 35-40mph, highest gust so far 42mph, mean wind speed around 30mph. Pressure has dropped about 2.5millibar in the last hour. Raining pretty consistenly, but not that heavy. As a point of comparison, met office have it gusting to 44mph at 3pm.
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Raining now, wind gone from 18mph to 35mph southerlies in the last hour, pressure falling. Here we go !
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Should be a very intersting couple of days. My location seems to have a baseline 40-45mph gusts for the next 2 days with periods of betweeen 50-65mph gust, depending on which forecast i look at. I hope it is no worse that this, i do like a good storm but i also like my home as well.
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Caught a snippet about squirrel proofing bird feederss on autumnwatch( i think).
They said to dust the bird food with chilli powder, it puts the squirrels off big time. Birds on the other hand, having very few taste receptors, cant taste it and will be none the wiser.
Sounds cruel to me but it was reccomended by a genuine eco/wildlife person !
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I am afraid i cant give anything referenced so this is a bit anecdotal and i apologise for that.
Some time within the last couple of years i saw a docu on TV that said that the minute variations in the daily rotation of the earth were due to varying weather patterns on the earth surface. Some days the eqatorial winds blow stonger than others.
Also there is evidence from fossilised worm casts that shows there used to be more days in the year than there are currently, so the notion that the earths days and year are permanently fixed periods is incorrect. Obivously they are near as constant on our timescale. If i remeber back to my university days i am sure they said the the earths rotation is gradually slowing. Could be down to something as simple as resistive forces from the oceans tides (this is pure speculation on my part).
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I dont have central heating, i rely on a woodburner. So far i have lit it twice. Its borderline though, not lit and it can get a bit cold, but when it is lit my home becomes like a sauna. I have had the gas fire lit this morning mind. If it is a sunny day my home will be lovely and warm, but days like today, damp and murky, its about the same tempreature inside as outside, which is just under 14C..
Whislt i do like the woodburner, it does become a chore, so the longer i can last without it the better.
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Not nearly as bad as was forcast last night, it rained pretty bad mind. Worst gust was about 45mph at 4 am . Still pretty blustery now, gusting from about 25-35mph. Think it will be like this for the rest of the day here.
It was windy enough last night to make all the cattle get out , they have now formed an autonomous collective and are deciding for themselves which field to occupy.
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Nothing to speak of yet in my area, it has been gusting 25-30 mph for the last few hours, very little rain. I expect to be feeling some bigger gusts by midnight.
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Looking forward to this, the first decent storm of autumn. Shame it will be in the middle of the night when i will be asleep.
Nothing that out of the ordinary for my location at this time of year, we would usually have several forcast of this magnitude over the year. Met office have gusts to 54mph with Netweather forcasting gusts of 50mph both in the early hours of the morning. Will be very surprised to see anything other than maybe one or two gusts over 50 mph here, you never know though!.
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Been doing some more reading on this.
Trying to get a handle on whether Lord Stirlings claims are possible.
First of all he should be banging on about the direct ecological impact of the dispersants. They sound nasty to say the least. It sounds like it is better if they are not used, we would have to put up with seeing the oil, but it would overall be less damaging.
I have read that numerous plumes of oil have been discovered, at a variety of depths, sizes and locations. Not all of these can be attributed to the BP oil spil, some are from from oil that naturally leaks out from the sea bed and i assuue other are from previous spills. Results from testing found a density of 0.5 ppm in the water column. Nowhere is their accurate data about the gulf current depths and speeds. As has been covered pretty well earlier, they vary and move.
The gulf current looks very unstable to my eyes, with the eddies forming and breaking off of the main current periodically. This is truly a dynamic system and is never in a fixed equilibrim state. With that i find it hard to belive that a plume of oil could dramatically effect the state of the current, especially plumes that could have been their for many years. There is a massive amount of water moving, with a huge amount of momentum, driven externally by the trade winds. The gulf loop is created as a result of water flowing in to the gulf of mexico, so to stop the current the energy source would have to be cut off. The breaking of the gulf loop in june probably served to actually reduce the amount of polluted water flowing into NAD, itslef being driven by the sinking of water off of Greenland.
From a different angle for the plumes to be suspended the dispersed tiny oil droplets have to be at the same density as the surrounding water , so no net change in the water density. I dont know how methane dissoved in the sea water could effect the density of the sea water. Viscosity could certainly be affected, but this would only have an impact if concentrations were significant. The oil is in the form of tiny discrete droplets, dispersed at a low concentration, for them to alter the viscosity they would have to come into physical contact with each other. I just dont think that the flowing water would really notice that the oil is there. Allthough i have read articles that quote scientists as saying that in places it could be the consistency of thin salad dressing. This sounds slightly more concentrated than the 0.5ppm.
I do think we will be feeling the reprucussions of the deepwater horizon oil spill for years, but it will not be in the form of the NAD ceasing,. It is the marine creatures of the gulf that i feel for most. One piece i read stated that in places as much as 2 inches of oil lay on the sea floor, thats not going to help life down there.
Atlantic Storms - January 2012
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Had a gust of 68mph about 30 min ago. The wind has eased a bit since then but it still lets you know its there. Getting brief showers, sporadically.
So far i have recorded my higest wind reading in about 2 years, might be longer, but i was inbetween weather stations for a few months.
Sort of looking forward to the squall line that is forming over ireland, could be intense.