[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

There will be no big freeze this winter, the depth of cold needed over central europe is not there, still plenty of interest for cold weather fans, there are many of us that enjoy winter and any kind of cold weather not just the very rare and very elusive "Big Freeze".

Your claim is probably based on recent observations over the last couple of decades or so. Real cold can come from the north too - look at the charts from the 60's and the very strong and frequent ridging northwards into Greenland which resulted in very cold northerly outbreaks with associated polar lows. I can't recall a recent proper polar low - but I've not been really looking.

[Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards]

I would say the charts have already downgraded somewhat compared to yesterday , some which I cautioned would most likely happen. The Azores high has been the driver this winter.

Yes, but it's a driver every winter, although with different outcomes. This winter, it's tight and strong: It isn't big and flabby, as was the norm over the previous two or so decades, with accompanying mild SW winds in these parts. 

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

Thank you. I was not aware of this research. It is very interesting and just goes to show the complex nature of meteorology and linked sciences.

To clarify myself, I did not mean "luck of the draw" in the sense as to why the Azores is there..a poor choice of words from me there. What I wanted to say was that the smallest of changes on the day to day basis from the Azores high can often mean big differences in the surface weather we subsequently end up with in the UK.

The choice of words is a very difficult skill - I'm getting on a bit and I'm still learning.

I agree with the rest of what you say.

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

Where did you read that to? The Azores high is a semi-permenant feature, so it has and will continue to be a nuisance to cold fans at times.

It really is luck of the draw in how it aligns and where exactly it sits. This winter it has had too much tendency to nudge towards the UK and topple.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/The-Azores-High.htm

 

 

I'm not sure that its is the luck of the draw as to how the Azores high aligns and where it sits. Prof. Joanna Haigh has published research that correlates alignment of The Azores High and where it sits with the UV output of the sun and cold winters in NW Europe and NE North America. 

see list of her papers - http://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/j.haigh/publications.html

 

The research in this area was soon taken on board by NASA, and in collaboration with Joanna Haigh and others, has been increasing our knowledge in this area.

 

The Azores High lately has more in common with the synoptics of the 60's than the 90's and since.  It seems to be more intense and centred more nearly over The Azores than being less strong and spread out towards central Europe with the jet being forced to the north of Europe. 

The polar vortex perhaps dances to the same tune of UV and correlated changes with different but sometimes enhanced consequences as to the position of the jet stream.

[The Midlands - Weather Chat]

Sleet here in Derby