GeorgeWX
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Posts posted by GeorgeWX
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According to the link above, some sources suggest the cme MAY have missed earth altogether.
A CME struck the ace satellite just before 1245am, it has met earths magnetosphere in the last 5 minutes
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Is the KP-Index expected to rise later? , it's at KP 1 just now according to spaceweather.com
Yes, I am expecting a peak kp of 6, possibly even 7 during the next 24-36 hours. The reason for this is we have 3 incoming CME's of notable size. The last of the 3 was the most powerful, this creates the potential for much stormier conditions.
I strongly recommend using the forecast map above to anyone who would struggle to interpret this data. The ace satellite is upstream taking solar wind measurements, this gives us a little bit of warning time (around 1 hour), the forecast map interprets this data to a simple user friendly format.
The kp rating that you are watching on spaceweather.com is updated every 3 hours and represents what has happened, useless if you want to see the aurora as it happens.
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DOWNGRADED
Unless you are way 'up North in the Shetlands or Orkneys
AURORA WATCH: NOAA has slightly downgraded the chance of geomagnetic activity on Feb. 17th to 35%. Those are still good odds, however, so high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Complete rubbish, I expect auroras overhead across Scotland, perhaps even North England. As a result, the aurora should become visible on the horizon as far south as the midlands.
Obviously the cloud cover is a menace, as well as the full moon.
The first CME arrived at the ace satellite at 7pm. Conditions will gradually turn stormy tonight and into the small hours, persisting over the next 24 hours.
1 hour aurora forecast map using data collected from the ace satellite. Updated every 2 minutes (you will need to refresh this web page)
I would very much appreciate it if any of the seasoned weather experts could predict where gaps may appear in the cloud during the next 2 to 10 hours.
thanks
Good luck.
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Just back in after viewing a moderate (somewhat unexpected) auroral display, the missus said it was the best valentines shes ever had!!!
Big news folks, around an hour ago we had an X2 flare erupt from earth facing sunspot 1158. It will be a couple more hours before we know if there is a CME associated with this event.
This is by far the biggest solar flare of cycle 24 and the biggest recorded solar flare in over 4 years.
edit: The X2 flare appears to have ejected a full halo CME. Strong mid-lat auroras are likely from an event of this magnitude.
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Do you think there is a chance we could see something in the night sky tonight?
It normally takes between 36 and 72 hours for a CME to travel from the sun to earth, This particular CME is expected to arrive tomorrow at the earliest.
Lasco c3 images show a very faint CME as I suspected last night, not good news for aurora hunters south of the border. We will see a geomagnetic disturbance associated with this event to some degree but will likely only be to higher latitudes.
However more significant flares are likely in the hours ahead as solar activity remains ramped up.
Yesterday's 10.7 flux came in at 107sfu. I think this is the highest recording I have witnessed in 5 years of taking an interest on the subject. It is a sure sign of high solar activity and a world away from what we were experiencing only a couple of months ago!
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Interesting! Maybe some mid-lat auroral activity due at last.
Yes very much possible, So far NOAA has confirmed that the M6 flare came from sunspot 1158 which is in a perfect earth facing position, they also confirm that there is a CME associated with this event. Lasco C2 seems to be detecting the beginning of a full halo CME though in my opinion it looks rather faint. It won't be until the morning before we have a better picture of what is coming our way.
Meanwhile the chances of more large solar flares remains high during the next 24-48 hours.
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Easily M-class and dare I say... X class flare potential.
M6.6 flare at 1740pm, (almost the largest flare in cycle 24)
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An increase in solar activity in the past 24 hours, with several new sunspots numbered. The interesting spot that could produce a flare is disappearing around the back of the sun, of course!
Definitely an understatement, A couple of days ago I was thinking 'great, we're back to the sort of solar activity we had in Summer last year before it all went silent'.
Now I'm thinking it's way more than that, 10.7 flux is at 95.6sfu, the highest I've seen in a long time, and the sun has burst out in spots like a 12 year old kid. Great because I've spent too long analysing coronal holes, scraping the bottom of the bowl so to speak.
I now think all the sunspots on the earth side of the sun merit watching as growth at the moment is substantial. Easily M-class and dare I say... X class flare potential.
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However, I am watching the emerging coronal hole with interest, it could be a dark horse. (emphasis on could)
It is an amalgamation of ch431 and 432, during the last solar rotation 431 was the main contributor to a planetery k index of 5 and offered the best auroral display since May last year. In November 2010 ch432 (then labelled ch427) was responsible for one of the fastest recorded coronal hole wind streams in 3 years at 800km/s+
Hopefully something interesting will come this way!
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AT approx 11.00 GMT last night Willis island stopped recording(after I assume the island was totally flooded), gusts of 185 km/hr and sustained winds of 141 km/hr were recorded just before it went down with pressures possibly sub 940 being recorded as well.
Aprox 50 inchs of rain was recorded in 5 mins, but this must have just been a wall of water collapsing over the building...
Yes I heard mention of 933hpa around an hour ago.
edit: just heard it is 930hpa according to abc.
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Are the CMEs predictable in the sense of being able to forecast one will happen? Or perhaps it's more "wait and see"?
The short answer is no, CME's and solar flares are impossible to forecast. The odds of one or the other occurring rise with the number of sunspots on the sun's surface, but that's not to say that sunspots are solely responsible for producing cme's, they are however a good indicator of current solar activity.
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Well I had high hopes that a recent surge in solar activity would produce at least one earth directed CME courtesy of sunspots 1147 and 1149.
Rolling back to mid January there was a notable explosion on the farside of the sun, heres a gif movie of that event. This sunspot group came into view around 3 days later and immediately went quiet, travelling across the earth facing side of the sun the sunspot group was large enough to see with the naked eye during sunset, but no eruptions took place during it's transit.
Then yesterday just as the sunspot group was heading out of sight this happened. Multiple C class flares with an M1 taking centre stage. None of the eruptions are earth directed.
Sods law isn't it!
However, I am watching the emerging coronal hole with interest, it could be a dark horse. (emphasis on could)
It is an amalgamation of ch431 and 432, during the last solar rotation 431 was the main contributor to a planetery k index of 5 and offered the best auroral display since May last year. In November 2010 ch432 (then labelled ch427) was responsible for one of the fastest recorded coronal hole wind streams in 3 years at 800km/s+
Hopefully something interesting will come this way!
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Here's a few sites not mentioned yet that may be of use.
geomag.bgs.ac.uk - British geological survey: magnetometer data and local k-indices from around the UK.
lmsal - assortment of data compressed onto a single page.
CSSDP - Canadian Space Science data portal: showing the real time auroral oval based on Canadian magnetometers
kho.unis.no - Kjell Henriksen observatory: Based in Svalbard using noaa costello data to create a map based forecast. (click aurora forecast)
Solar Observatory - Handy site with EIT and Lasco gif images.
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The best weatherman in the beeb IMO, he will be dearly missed. He has a special skill in communicating the forecast that nobody else at the MO has.
Watched that East Mids forecast, I thought maybe a couple of you were over hyping things a little but nope you're spot on, It did look like he was about to burst into a few 'riddims' from 'lethal bizzal' and '50 cent'. Funny yes, but not really when you think that Rob goes and he doesn't.
Besides, rapper Des has the yanks to compete with.
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Went out for a look and it was a quiet but nice display with a deep green band below a smoother and more faint red(ish) band peaking around 15-20 degrees above the horizon.
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First coronal HSS of the new year is under way. Currently KP5 with IMF tilting south.
The noaa site has went very slow in the last 15 minutes returning server errors.
So this will need to do
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Hi Murcie, well done on your first November forecast, spot on as far as I'm concerned.
It's a shame that the Dec 25th forecast didn't evolve in the manner you predicted in mid November.
You say you had 9 historic confirmations for November 12th yet only 1 for Dec 25th, It would appear to me that the number of these 'confirmations' has a part to play in accuracy. I mirror what Snooz said above in that your x-mas forecast wasn't a long way off though it became apparent around the 17th that the timings were out, might this be due to lack of historical information?
You have previously mentioned a lack of data, There may be people on the forum who could point you in the right direction for the type of archives you are after.
I suggest you go back to the drawing board and find a day in 2011 with several 'historical confirmations' that will be notable like 12/11 was and present your 'experimental forecast' once again.
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GEO-STORM WATCH: A geomagnetic storm is brewing. The sun's magnetic field near Earth tipped south during the early hours of Dec. 28th, opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind pouring in could spark bright Northern Lights around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Currently kp5.
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George....is it possible that a Polar low could develop and fulfill his theory about the 19th, from almost out of nowhere?
Bit late to respond, having spent so much time watching current developments I forgot about this.
Being honest I was trying to align the forecast models with this guys prediction the best way that made sense. I thought it was quite an achievement to accurately forecast 2 months in advance, He also mentions accurately predicting a couple other forecasts well in advance but didn't make them public. I was looking at his methods with optimism.
Now we are on the 19th it seems his forecast for today was well off with LP of around 997mb at 56N and not 960mb at 70N.
According to the 12UTC FAX analysis, todays pressure at 70N and 3E is around 1020mb.
Good news for any other optimists out there who want a white christmas.
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Worth keeping an eye on the geo activity over the coming hours, the magnetometer at crooktree has just taken a major dip, could be a northern opportunity for late geminids and auroras 2 for 1.
http://www.dcs.lancs.ac.uk/iono/aurorawatch/rt_activity/
Nice trade off for standing out in -5c
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it seems to me that his forecast involved an unusual (though not exactly rare) level of air pressure over the UK..... but as I see the models pan out it looks like perhaps such levels will almost be the norm for this winter.
He mentioned a couple of days ago....having already made his forecast the previous week...
Is there any sign the models are leaning toward this or indeed were they already doing so a couple or more days ago?
I don't know for sure but the arctic low that the models say is due to hit the UK on the 17th would be the nearest contender to his 'circa 960mb' thats due (according to his prediction) on the 19th, He also describes HP travelling north easterly from Portugal on the run up to the 25th, The models are also suggesting that scenario might occur.
Very strange and goes against all my instincts, But I think both the forecast for the 19th and the 25th will be correct though possibly out of sync by 12 or 24 hours.
If they are correct....... well...
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Kp just shot up in the last hour or two.
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there was Aurora acitivity in lewis night missed it though
I did say!
Don't despair milkmaid, I'm quietly confident there will be more aurora opportunities in the coming days up your way, The sun has been frequently spitting out C class flares, the culprit being a complicated looking tangle of sunspots currently on the earth facing side of the sun. At least one of these flares should be geoeffective when it reaches earth on Sunday-Monday.
Not a bastille day type event by far but possibly a quiet display like what occurred last night.
Solar and Aurora Activity Chat
in Space, Science & nature
Posted · Edited by GeorgeWX
I suppose I should apologise if I caused you offence Kar, instead of simply saying your statement was nonsense, I maybe should have explained the reason for the inaccuracy with your comment.
Particularly this.
Just because spaceweather.com say, 'expect high latitude aurora', that does not mean that only the orkney's and locations north of that point will see activity. Technically speaking... low lat = 0-30 degrees, mid lat 30-60 degrees and high lat 60-90 degrees.
If spaceweather say, 'mid latitude aurora', then they really are putting their neck on the line, that implies aurora as far south as Spain and southern Germany. A super rare event only caused by the most severe solar storms, definitely KP9+.
It's for that reason that you shouldn't regard the phrase 'high latitude' with such weight as to be certain only the orkneys will see aurora.
As I expected the ongoing geo-storm has peaked at kp6, but Canada and the USA got the best of this one and we missed out due to the timing of the first CME arrival. If things happened a few hours earlier aurora would be visible as far south as Yorkshire. (obviously cloud permitting)
A second CME struck the ace satellite at 1040am (which surprised many) and disruptive storming continued, It appears to be waning, but there are so many uncertainties as solar activity was very active 3-5 days ago and this high level of activity continues. There is a slight possibility for what I would coin as 'mid-latitude' (59N and southwards) aurora in the days ahead, there is even a small chance that the current geomagnetic disruption will pep up towards this evening.
During the course of this week there have been literally dozens of C-class flares, at least five M-class flares and the X-class flare.