[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.]

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81

Impossible to summarise on twitter but the EC ENS from the 12z run are distinctly cold and blocked. The Atlantic could struggle to 'get in'

[Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward]

Our Met office here in Ireland use the ECMF as far as i know and this is part of their forecast this morning "There is a gradual return to milder weather next weekend as temperatures climb towards more normal values of 9 or 10 degrees."

I find our met guys are rarely wrong so, although I wish it was otherwise, I'm afraid a breakdown of the cold spell looks on for the weekend and after that does not look great from their charts.

Hope they and I are wrong.

John they do use the ecm, as well as the hirlam model, They only showed as far as Saturday after that who knows.

[Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes]

Not sure if this has being posted yet the AccuWeather winter outlook for Europe 2012-2013 and they are going for below average temperatures for NW Europe. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Euro/winter-20122013-forecast/972170

[Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion]

Anyone noticed how quiet James Madden has suddenly gone, it has been him who has been the lead Amature forecaster in saying this winter was going to be very cold and snowy now it's almost a month since his website has been updated, i wonder why?

He must of read your post updated today

A mild winter on the cards?

This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.

As in my last update on the 2^nd September 2011.

I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

THIS STILL STANDS!

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.

THIS STILL STANDS!

This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

November 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

December 2011

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.

January 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.

February 2012

Colder than average

Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 19^th October2011 (14:45) BST

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. All rights reserved.

[Winter 2011/2012]

Yup Gavin P reads totally like RJ's!!!

Thats because it is RJ's forecast or better know as MT on the Irish Boards or even better Peter O Donnell