ukpaul
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Everything posted by ukpaul
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ECM - Friday 1am GFS - Friday 1am Slight difference in angle but the extent of snow north and south now appears to be about the same northwards with ECM a wider band including the South East. ECM Dang, not appearing. Anyway, it's here - https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/fr-europe-ecmwf-87.htm#072 GFS
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It's a little North but the major difference is it's less snowy, especially for the north Midlands. Reason being that it misses the 'wraparound' snow arriving later on Friday. Variation on a theme really.
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The UKMO breaks up a bit but does reach there by end of Thursday, still too far out anyway to approach it with any certainty. The supposed higher resolution models of ICON, Arpege, Hirlam, are pretty poor performers for this part of the world I’ve always found. Euro4 is pretty decent though. If Met Office forecasts shift from their current status then we’d know if their internal models are seeing different but nothing so far on that.
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How did did you do that? What’s the secret button I have to press?!?
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If anything you get snow bands diminishing as more mixed signals take over. To keep them solid at a three day range is a pretty good show of consistency.
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WRF, UKMO (the middle ground and most likely, stopping just short of North Yorkshire), GEM, JMA, even the mighty NAVGEM etc. are akin to GFS. Action after the pivot is more diverse so when that happens there’s a greater split. I’m not trying to be contrary, just as I pointed out in recent days that the supposed corrections south for tomorrow were only 50/50.
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At this range there is little scatter. Four or so of the perturbations have it further south but a similar number take it further north. I would have posted the Panel GEFS to show that but that isn’t possible - or is there a way of doing that?
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GFS mean for Thursday. Very consistent. Not even thinking of shifting.
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Well the site that shall not be named just upgraded things overnight to sixteen(!!) hours of heavy snow here until tomorrow afternoon. Even if only a quarter right that’s good enough for me. The ICON is a bit of an attention seeker, it flaps around backwards and forwards in a way that other short term models don’t as a rule. I stick to EURO4, UKMO and nothing else for the short term.
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Clear northerm shift in the last 24 hours for tonight and tomorrow’s system from the ICON. Now Yesterday Although the day before that, it looks like back to square one!
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Even the insanely optimistic GFSP snow charts baulk at -3 for falling snow. The chances go up markedly for the south if the system gets north then pivots and slows as the lower 850s and the snow wrapped around it follows the system sinking into Europe. I lived south of London for twenty years, angle of trajectory is a real help when there’s no embedded cold.
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GFS system on Thursday loses a bit of oomph when it pivots, so not so snowy as it moves back. Hopefully not a trend and something to look for on the ensembles which were pretty gung ho about it this morning.
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It appears to be being repelled by what, at first, seems to be a weak ridge of high pressure. There may well be a factor arriving (at last) from the SSW downwelling making that possible. GFS just tries to send more and more lows through to little effect, what we really want to see is one of them disrupt south and undercut leading to the fabled Scandi High.
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The figures are per hour, it isn't moving that quickly so that a location can be in their snow zone for a few hours. The fly in the ointment is that temperatures in general may just be above freezing, so how much lays is open to question.
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Makes sense of the latest Met Office local forecast where showers have suddenly been upgraded to heavy snow before midday (although they are also suggesting some more heavy stuff in the early hours as well, and I'm really not sure where that's coming from). To be honest, the folks at the Met Office are as good a guide as any at the moment.
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GFS Ensemble now indicating another potential snow event on Sunday going into Monday (map for my location, other locations are available...)
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It corrected North for the Tuesday event by about 50-100 miles or so. (shhh, don't tell anyone. I don't think they noticed.....)
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Thursday isn't the type of channel runner which does often go south. This also interacts with another weaker system and the pivot keeps it further north. Peak District is potentially the sweet spot as others have said. Book a trip to Buxton.....
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The two interacting lows and the pivot point on Thursday’s event is going to be an interesting one, the 18z runs are having them meet slightly earlier, which is pushing the PPN towards Scotland as they start to swing around.
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It’s actually going in reverse after 192h. That 960 low being literally squeezed out of existence.
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Up here any corrections aren’t usually south but equally south or north. Bitter experience on that one. Given that the latest runs are pushing them north my major concern is it moving that way at the moment (though Scots will be feeling differently!) The Tuesday feature is doing the same on the ICON but that is narrowing it down gradually given its proximity.
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Looking through through the other models, ICON has support from the NETWX model but the others (WRF, both GFS, GEM) are akin to the ARPEGE. Hopefully people are looking at all the models, not just the ones posted that look good for their area. Nothing is definite here......
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Not Steve but up to 4 ins on Tuesday right up to the Pennines (though no further north) and maybe up to 6 ins in favoured spots on Thu into Fri, also going up to the North East and maybe Borders. EDIT: I’m at elevation, so probably less in low lying areas.
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Plenty of PPN is way north of the Tuesday system. The Pennines and areas East and West look to do just as well as further South and without that element of marginality. Look for the next warnings to extend further north and west.
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850s are much better on GFS. Even when considering that -6 might not be needed the UKMO, GFSP and ECM are flirting with marginality for those closer to the system. -2 or even 0 850s around it. Snow/rain/snow maybe?
