ukpaul
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Posts posted by ukpaul
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Thanks. Interesting seeing them together and tends to suggest that January is going to be the most wintry month, consensus being ealier in the month but with some support for it being later.
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UKPaul, Scotty_boy_Winter, please give up with the argument as you're ruining the thread for others. I already made one request in the thread for you to stop which was ignored, I've now gone through and deleted a bunch of posts, next step if you can't control yourselves will just be to restrict your accounts so you can't continue to ruin things for others, which I imagine you don't really want...
Quite, we are at a stage where nobody definitely knows anything either way; when we get near enough to winter (the first flowerings in FI?) then we can start making predictions with any certainty. There are many great posters who back up their ideas with evidence at this early stage however and good on them for doing so, they make the forum interesting and are worth following as we move forwards.
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I wouldn't pin your hope on James Madden who is a truck driving 24yr old with no qualifications. He was the one who fed the press stories of blizzards this month! I just hope if he is proven well of the mark this year then they don't print his waffle next year!
To be fair he said October or November, of course the press will then use that to say 'heavy snowfall in October' but that's the press for you.
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Most people would generally want warm weather, not hot weather. It's when the temperature becomes difficult to avoid that people complain, whether it be into the high seventies or eighties or close to or below freezing.
As for holidays I go where I might find interesting things to see and do, I've never seen the point in going somewhere just to do nothing.
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I thought it was only one set of models (NCEP/CFS) was showing a strong La Nina, the rest being pretty much neutral.
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Hot all year please in the 20-45C range and nights not going below 15C, mixed with hot and sunny, hot and humid warm and humid/thundery partly cloudy and dry 30+ heat and some 20+ sunny/cloudy days.
Frankly that would kill me, literally. If the weather changes to that I'd have to move steadily northwards, otherwise I'd be condemned to a living hell.
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I suffer in hot weather, always have, for some reason my body just starts to pack up when the temperature rises. As such I'd take snow any time, I feel better and heating is a lot cheaper than air conditioning (which is a must for me on hot days).
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Unattributable gossip is not relevant information. No Met Office forecaster would claim that they are 90% sure of anything months away in any case.
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The last part of your post Is very childish Paul, there's no place for thoses sorts of comments on your post on here.
I don't believe you, I thought it kinder to make a joke of it. I'll go back to straight talking then!
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Right does anyone know what the Models where saying this time last year? When did we see the 100% guarantee of the late November winter begins? I didn't know it was going to be absolutely freezing until a week before, but when was the first obvious signs?
As things moved out of FI, from about eight days before; before that then there was some hint from about two weeks out but it was seen as likely to fizzle or out or be downgraded, which this time didn't happen.
Anyway, my mate who knows someone who says that he once pretended to be from the met office said that nobody knows anything at this stage.
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how cool would it be to have all that snow on the ground again throughout the whole of December again?
Below freezing?
I'll get my coat.....
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Someone who claims they know how the weather will be over a period of months at an 80% certainty level is a liar or a fool. Do they really think we're going to believe it? Especially if it's a mate who works with these people who might have said etc.
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The long range CFS models aren't forecasting a big freeze nor a 'big heat' (?). The Met Office aren't on board with anything, they don't issue such forecasts anymore.
Personally, I take the CFS model with a pinch of salt, they update every day which makes it very difficult to create a pattern.
Yes, nobody knows anything at the moment.
To tell the truth most people at the moment are hedging their bets, going for a sort of middle muddle, that way they can't be totally wrong; whatever figures they use it's still just a hunch as to how things will pan out, whatever they plump for.
Suggesting that the frequency of a forecaster's posts are concrete evidence of something is just trolling however.
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PWS Winter 2010/11 Forecast -
"A chilly but dry start to December with some dry and bright weather around, but also some rain - amounts of which are not expected to give cause for concern. Through mid-month, high pressure consolidates, so expect a run of dry weather"
Didn't exactly cover themselves with glory on that one!
Then they said that the worst of winter last year would be in February!
EDIT: Sorry McWeather, hadn't seen that you'd posted something similar.....
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(that said, another Laki eruption would be good).
Thanks for the specifics on Katla, i'd originally only referred to it as a potential short term and minor disturbance, looks like it wouldn't be any more than that, thankfully.
As for another Laki being 'good', given the effect last time I'm not sure I really want all that to happen again!!
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The potential is there for something similar, Katla may have erupted similarly in the 10th century, hardly likely for anything now to be as devastating though, those are very rare events thankfully. Then again, these things have to happen sometime. Anyway, this has moved away from winter prospects, I merely mentioned it as another variable.
There is also a study which points to evidence that the July heatwave in Europe resulted from a short term greenhouse warming created by the emissions from Laki and high levels of sulphur dioxide in the lower troposphere. This becoming less of an effect the further away from the volcano you went. Too far away to be certain of any evidence either way though I suppose.
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To have a maximum effect, it would have to erupt when the sun is at it's strongest and days at their longest. Why would you expect increased heat in summer though?
Karyo
Well, the 1783 Laki eruption was pretty devastating (in June and going through to the winter), reportedly contributing to a large number of deaths throughout Europe via the Sulphur Dioxide, the summer then also became much hotter at times in the immediate aftermath (contemporary reports), the winter after being also very extreme. Seems to have been similar in some ways to the 'year without a Summer' in 1816, which did come from the East.
To have two such events within a lifetime must have had a real effect on how people viewed the power of nature.
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Katla's eruptions are not big enough to have any significant influence on the climate. Krakatoa would do a much better job at this!
Karyo
If it does properly erupt though, in the way that many are suggesting, then there could easily be an effect on climate. There is historical record of similar eruptions pumping out sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, darkened skies, potential for increased heat in summer and cold in winter and so on.
All a bit biblical but it's the sort of thing that we've done well to avoid recently.
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Well, it's about as non committal as you could expect given how wide of the mark most people's forecasts were last year (it's quite funny reading how sure they were of a milder December last year, even until mid November) .
What do I think will happen this year? Well, if the rumblings from Icelandic volcano country get any more serious then that's another factor which may tip things in a colder direction. At the moment I'd go for the Winter to be severest in January.
Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by ukpaul
Accuweather last year said - "Not as Harsh as last year" (i.e. 2009/10)
Not exactly accurate.
"Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to average closer to normal in London, while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a little below normal." etc.
Here's the link - http://www.accuweath...-winter-f-1.asp
EDIT: Beaten to it again, oh well. It is astonishing just how regularly poor forecasters are at this range yet still we think they hold the secrets of the universe.....