[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

Here in AYRSHIRE it's dark, it's colder than it is in the summer, cold enough to have a warming winter fire. It's a huge let down regarding wintry weather but, despite the models prediction of a winter wonderland, it still feels festive.

This is a taste of the future regarding global warming and associated winter weather.

Hopefully, just as the models are showing a blow torch from the Azores, they will flip and suddenly we will be chasing the depth of snow expected over the UK.

I rarely post but thought I would air my thoughts on this excellent forum.

 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Met office app showing sleet on Tuesday for my location (Dalrymple) and mentioning substantial snow for high ground. Looks like the slider lows affecting England over the next few days may just give south Scotland some of the white stuff, fingers crossed and one to watch.

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Chris Faulks(I think that's his name) was just pushed on the radio 4 forecast into commenting on the Polar Vortex being disrupted by the SSW OF 50c over the past week. He said that he's almost certain that it will impact our weather over the next few weeks and to keep a weak link to topic I presume we will reap the benefit on the models shortly. 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

 

According to the GEFS 6z mean it looks anticyclonic, at least for the southern half of the uk for the next 10 days or so but with the fine weather across the north gradually being eroded with more atlantic influence, towards mid Dec it becomes generally unsettled across the uk but this goes completely against the met office update.

Edited 1 hour ago by Frosty.

I am a furtive lurker and have limited knowledge in comparison to many on this forum but does the last chart not give potential with Azores High maybe linking with Greeny High and finally delivering a potent block and floodgates open delivering the goods?

 

[Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...]

BBC forecast said strong winds to accompany snow which is normally the kiss of death for coastal Ayrshire. Hoping my position 6 miles inland and 60m elevation is enough to give a covering. We will see. No lying snow here so far this winter.

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

I'm quite happy, it is snowing heavily, huge flakes, countryside turning white. I know it's not going to last but I'm making the most of every second . Beautiful .

 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Contemplating giving the grass its first cut but too wet, at least the rain is cold just now and there is the prospect of our first frost of the season and probably the last for this month. 

 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

Over the last few days another example of how local topograghy effects weather. In Dalrymple ,near Ayr ,we received <15mm rain while Glasgow 35 miles north with less shelter from Ireland in SW rain events had 114mm. Unfortunately in snow events the same is true but that doesn't stop me searching for the holy grail in this area.

 

[Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards]

Mid February 1973. Ayr had more than 10cm of powder snow from a PM incursion which in my memory in coastal Ayrshire has not been matched. interesting if someone could find a chart for this?(Jan 84 similar )

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards]

Any chance the storm risk being further NW over Ayrshire as exciting weather has been in very short supply this summer(and winter,except for prolonged thunderstorms mid December)?

[Scotland - Weather Chat]

Unusual cloud formation just past over heading NE. Looks like mammatus but no CuNb near and not likely in this synoptic set up. Any ideas? Windy dull and dry at present.

[Scotland - Weather Chat]

Noticed temp in Ayr was lower than here in Dalrymple which is a bit unusual in winter and discovered when I drove in that there had been a heavy hail shower which was still lying, though thawing rapidly, not the most exciting event but after the last few winters nice to see something remotely white.

For me here in the SW, the highlight of the past winter was the prolonged thundery activity before Xmas.

[Scotland - Weather Chat]

May be last chance of lying snow. Have only seen one morning with light covering so far. Late Sunday to Wednesday potentially but these charts do tend to overdo it.

[Scotland - Weather Chat]

Temp is just above freezing. Looking at intensity of ppt hopefully will be of snow

[Scotland - Weather Chat]

Precipitation bands to NW definitely rotating and looks on course for SW Scotland. Wind light here now temp.1.5

[Scotland - Weather Chat]

First post but cautiously optimistic that Dalrymple will have its first covering by morning. Nothing on ground,temp 1(check out netatmo station on map). Best and not impossible outcome that covering remains despite less cold air Friday with true Arctic air weekend and possible troughs in flow to extend potential snow chances or am I just getting a bit over excited?

[Scotland - Cold & Windy Spell Discussion 3]

Heavy rain squall just passed, can hardly stand up in garden. much milder, spray being whipped off river doon(Dalrymple) Sky clearing from west onset of extreme winds soon(Malin Head 90mph)