blizzard81

Not so outlandish now. We just need to hope we stay on the northern side.

We also need to remember that Exeter are quite bullish about the return of the atlantic into January. Maybe the ecm is sniffing it too early.

I'm getting that 'sinking' feeling.

Yep, that blasted pv lobe over Newfoundland is becoming a deal breaker with the ecm.

Hopefully a good indicator that it shouldn't matter too much that the EC46 was derived from the morning run.

Just one question. Is that more pronounced than what was shown on this morning's suite?

Well I was certainly relieved to see no uptick in long range temps on tonight's 12z ecm suite compared to the morning suite. That's for sure. Like we have both said though, Thursday will be more telling.

Thanks but just to clarify from your middle paragraph, I didn't say that the ecm was correct or as a result, winter is over. Based on ecm output I think the high looks more likely to sink somewhat. After that, I believe we still have a better opportunity to see the high retrogress north west. To what extent is extremely uncertain and this will have a huge impact on how cold (proper cold or tepid) north west Europe becomes. Just wanted to make that clear.

Great post. Its ironic when viewing the EC46 that its already half a day out of date and we all know how 'important' changes can happen within 24 hours to change long term outlooks. I really hope this isn't the case today. We will know come Thursday. If the EC46 update on Thursday is anything like tonight's, we can then, and only then, take some comfort and relax somewhat.

Indeed. I think we should all be thinking along these lines and be grateful we aren't facing a wet and miserable Christmas. Things could be a whole lot worse.

The ecm op tonight is classic 'snatching defeat from the jaws of victory'. For those asking if this run is possible. I would say, yes, unfortunately. However, probably not as marked as this run. The high may sink but just not as much as this run shows.

If we all wish hard enough

Nice one matey . Don't rule out a sneaky pre-xmas easterly. Ok, its the 06z control but it has some similarities to this morning's ecm op .

I wonder why the MJO is always seemingly prone to being delayed? Seems to happen every year.

Gfs says no on this run. As others have said, I really hope it isn't a cloudy high.

That's the most 'glass half empty' post I have seen you post lol . However, its good to have some realism to balance things out. Something I always believe in. After all, its a fine line between positivity and fantasy. Lets hope your post acts as a reverse psychology mechanism and we see some big upgrades tomorrow

Classic!

High pressure over southern Europe is a constant thorn in the side.

What we all need is some stonking 00z op runs in the morning. Backed up by decent ensemble suites. Too much to ask for? Seriously though, this is a critical juncture.

I wouldn't trust the pub run to have handled anything properly beforehand either

Nowhere near imo. We need big adjustments on tomorrows outputs.

Even the pub run can't pull one out of the bag.

One thing is almost certain. Western Russia looks like going frigid for Christmas. The trend today is for everything to be too far east for the UK to benefit in any meaningful way. No doubt there will be the usual operational teasers thrown in every now and then to keep us interested but I fear to no avail.

I agree. Too much energy in the wrong places - again. What strikes me is the LACK of uncertainty in the Meto updates over the last couple of weeks. They normally mention uncertainty in their monthly updates but they have been laden with certainty instead which is unusual but also worrying, especially when the forecast seems to imply a sinking high and unsettled regimes taking over again into the new year. I hope I am wrong but the Arctic profile yet again is not assisting western Europe. A constant theme over the last 20 plus years.

Why are the control runs so extreme I wonder? The ecm control is also prone to this.