Cavehill Snow
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Posts posted by Cavehill Snow
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Just seen this chart on Mod Discussion site from GPS 18hrs valid for 6pm - midnight for Friday.
Snow north of a line from wicklow to just ne of Galway city - hopefully further improvements for those looking like having to wait to Monday for their snow!
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Hi, its showing on Rain Today Snow Radar
Thanks for reply
I had a look at RainToday site, it only seems to show precipitation intensity, I can't find anything to show precip type.
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Just seen two cop out forecasts on BBCNI & RTE tonight - same words & graphics as teatime.
Rain or wet snow on low ground with surface temps at 2-3C.
Things gone very quiet with no new info regarding warnings or snow prediction charts since this afternoon.
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Rain now starting to turn to sleet and snow over the Isle of Man. Its coming
Where did you hear that? Promising if it is true. Here it has been 4 C from late afternoon and got no colder since.
Difficult to know what to expect on Friday & weekend
On a pessimistic note there is an occluded front and a warm front ahead of the main system. Our temperatures are quire high still and need to drop fairly rapidly from now on if this is to play forecast; I think we need the winds to switch more southeast to east ahead of the main fronts as this can lower the temperatures (England cold all week under east winds with us being mild despite being only 60-80 miles away due west). Met Eireann & UKMet report that rain in NI will turn to snow in the afternoon especially over high ground.Met Eireann also states that Dublin, east Leinster coast & Wicklow mountains may see wet snow .
On a positive note, whilst Met Eireann & UKmet haven't updated their warnings from this afternoon, BBC News website quotes NI as having 10-15 cm of snow on Friday on Friday and 20 cm by Sat morning. Also looking at radar, rain only moving northeast 30-40 miles over 3 hours - so should allow better chance of colder temperatures before the precipitation arrives.
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Last night it looked like half the island would definitely have snow though it would likely turn back to rain for most. Tonight we have no definite forecast for snow anywhere but with potential chance of a rain to snow event for the ulster & east coast. I hope it turns for the better (all parts for snow) tomorrow, though at what stage do the charts settle on one solution?
Every day the 0z charts & 6z charts push everything east and we lose our chance of snow, then later the 12z & 18z charts bring ebverything further west and renew our chance of snow. Which will be correct?
Projected precititation levels are very high (20-40mm which if it was all snow would be the equivalent 10 -20 inches) - so if we get few hours of snow at least, we could get good levels of lying snow - unless of course we get wet slushy snow in which you find it hard to get any depth away from high ground.
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Metoffice only update yellow warnings once/day in the morning around 11. Orange or red more often, as this is marginal definitely won't get an orange warning unless they're buried in a snow drift.
Whilst it is frustrating that we would hope to see tonights improvements in the runs reflected in changes to warnings, I suppose it makes some sense. With 4 x GPS, 2 x ECM, UKMO, GEM, etc model runs every day and models changing from run to run, they be changing their warnings every couple of hours and make look even more silly than what some people already think of them
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Very difficult to work out whether we get any snow at the weekend, and if so, will it amount to much?
It seems strange that pressure charts show low pressure & fronts running south east thr'u south west Ireland - thru Cornwall - on into nw France, yet precipitation charts show snow getting across southern England near as far east as London. A few days ago the charts had low pressure & fronts much further north & east with no prospect of cold for snow anywhere in Ireland. The charts have been getting better day by day with correction south & west, taking the cold weather closer to Ireland. However I have a small fear that a correction north & east may occur again as the models finally work out system placements for the weekend.
Weatherwise at the moment for Friday, it is looking like this:-
Most of Munster, W Connaught & SE Leinster - rain
E Connaught, NE Leinster & SW Ulster - snow to rain late Friday (no great acuumulations except over high ground)
NE Ulster - snow to rain sometime Saturday (significant temporary snow cover, especially over hills)
Will probably be subject to further change, just hope somewhere in Ireland gets some decent snow event.
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I have been reading Model discusions and viewing the charts every day on this site since mid November - sometimes I feel that I've wasted so much time as there has been no real snow (apart from todays few flakes that is), other times I get some enjoyment viewing speculative snowfests on the 500hp charts which unfortunately have yet not come to fruition.
I have been mad about snow since I was a kid, i must be getting older now though as a few years back I would be kicking the cat the number of times promising charts have disappeared as T"0" approaches whereas I'm more resigned to disappointments this year!
Nothing scientific to my thoughts, but I feel that we may miss out this year, though would love to be wrong. Lots of positive forecasts regarding the stratosphere should still give us some hope, so will be on this board for another few weeks.
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Anyone any thoughts on the early 12Z outputs in any thread???
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It looks like sea ice is trending towards forming a bridge between SE Greenland & NW Iceland - is this normal and when did it last happen?
Ireland Regional Discussions 17th January 2013 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Very good technical post though I can't pretend to understand all of it.
Has the theta-e only begun to forecast this warm sector this evening and is why the local tv forecasts have not updated their forecasts tonight and are quitevague on detail?