JamesC
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Posts posted by JamesC
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6 minutes ago, IanT said:
Wow! How was that measured..?
There's a small weather station with an anemometer at the top of the tower.
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Just had a gust of 103mph (12.45 ish) in Woking, Surrey.
35 stories up though! At the top of a 400ft tower.
I was up there this morning at about 11.30 / 12, frightening.
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2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
My point is that we are going to see differences run to run. As enthusiasts we can't help but over analyse models that publish eight times a day. Yes, I don't doubt that wind speeds have dropped slightly for some on the UKV 09z, but unless that trend maintains on the 12z, 15z, 18z etc etc then it warrants a passing comment rather than the definite terms that Eunice is downgrading. it is too premature to say this and will only result in complacency, IMO
It has maintained on the 12z, 15z, 18z, 21z. I literally stated that in the 1st post. That was the entire point of the post. It is a trend already....
Anyway enough of this and back to the model watching
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3 minutes ago, Dbarb said:
It's literally one model run, I could say the same about it being an upgrade by looking at other models for my area
I think you miss the point about it's not relevant to your area or my area. It's relevant to the country...
Every run from circa 12z yesterday to now is showing a slight decrease in windspeeds for the majority.
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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Perhaps you should take a step back and look at the bigger picture rather than saying "downgrade" every time. It really isn't helpful!
But the bigger picture according to the UKV is showing a decrease in windspeeds (for the majority), a few others are also now picking up on this.....
Personally I'm quite thankful and find this potential trend very helpful.
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3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
It is six of one and half a dozen of the other. One person's downgrade is someone else's upgrade with this evolving situation. What @JamesC is arguing is trivial and needless as run to run we will see the peak gusts slightly alter - for some decreasing, for others increasing. It remains a very dangerous storm.
My trivial point is that windspeeds for the majority of areas (yes of course a minority have increased) have dropped circa 10mph on the UKV from yesterday afternoon. Please have a look at those charts, post them on here and please point out where I am wrong. I am new to this (ish) and would love to learn.
Either way it remains a very dangerous storm.
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3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
Some of this 'downgrade' stuff is complete nonsense. Simply bears no relation to the actual charts or what professional forecasters are adding.
The depth of the low has, if anything, intensified and peak depth is tending to occur over the UK now rather than in the Bristol channel.
This is a severe storm that is going to cause widespread disruption and damage.
Actual wind gusts will become easier to forecast later in the day and overnight.
I mean the UKV wind speed charts are literally showing a decrease in windspeeds for a majority of areas when compared to yesterday afternoon / evening.....not sure how these bear no relation to the 'actual charts'.
Literally no one (except one or two looking to 'poke the bear') have said this is not a severe storm? Not sure how this is nonsense...
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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I see no downgrade unless you're talking about within 250 metre grid squares?
So you decided to ignore the time stamps from yesterday which was the point of the post?
Besides the charts you posted do show a slight decrease in wind speed in a large portion of England.......
Please post the charts from 18z / 21z from yesterday with the same comment as you made above....
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Latest UKV 09z is now substantially downgraded in windspeed gusts from yesterday afternoon / evening. This is still a powerful storm but it has without a doubt downgraded for the majority of areas when compared to yesterday.
I think that the MO have got the red warning spot on here and personally do not expect to see any additional red warnings, unless the sting jet comes to fruition.
Before you discuss the term 'downgraded' please compare the UKV charts for 09z to 15z/18z/21z from last night. As a whole I'd estimate a fall in windspeed from 10-15mph for a lot of areas.
The sting jet is concerning though.
Edit: How do you post past charts from netweather website, if you click on the image it only shows the current model run? Like the one attached. (09z)
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3 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Very interesting feature setting up here at 2pm on Friday. A few models have started to show a similar pattern to this.
What model is this and do you have a link?
Thanks
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24 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Just fwiw the Arome has peak winds in that possible sting jet of 117mph...
Imagine that hitting a populated region. Nasty stuff.
Can you post charts or links to Arome please.
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1 minute ago, birdman said:
Won't the site be closed due to health and safety?
No we are almost finished so mostly contained. 35 floors up (400ft or so) it will be relatively safe as well as nothing can fly into me! Will be quite an experience.
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1 minute ago, Ross90 said:
My prediction, increasing slight downgrades run on run until Friday morning. Inland areas won't go above 80mph, probably 65 - 75mph for most and maybe around 90 near southern and south west coasts.
Spot on in my opinion, 2nd this.
Will still be an interesting storm! I work on a construction site in Surrey and we have just built two 35 storey towers, I'll be standing on the capping slab at the top at peak wind intensity!
Can't wait.
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2 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:
Whilst im not saying this isnt a significant weather event, i do think youve got to remember that this low is in its infancy stages, and theres a huge amount of volatility which we've seen time and time again doesnt always follow the track that people think it will. People have a reason to be concerned, but there's still a nagging doubt that the track of the low may not follow the route people think it will. For example, how many times in the depths of december or january do you see these lows go far south of the UK, or indeed develop with less severity than was shown on the models. Theres a lot of anxiety here, i can feel it, and yes whilst its likely there will be some horrible wind speeds recorded, i do think there'll be some changes in the morning.
So implying that all of the models are wrong along with MO and other weather agencies (excl possibly some ICON runs)?
I love your optimism! I personally think that this storm will hit and hit hard.
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
Look at the raw data for your location on the met office forecast, that's from the UKV.
I've been checking in every 5 or 6 hours for the past two days, and wind speeds for this location have barely changed, and have actually increased today.
For your area.....
Look at the storm as a whole.
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I haven't seen that at all, only minor variations for locations, but overall, nothing has changed.
Compare 06z to 12z, there is a definite small decrease in wind speed if you compare frame to frame. It is generally over a larger area but also generally lower speeds.
I love to see extreme weather but I would hope for a few downgrades on this, there will be loss of life and property as things stand. When looking at previous storms of a similar calibre there has always been loss of life, either directly or indirectly.
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1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:
Perhaps that is the case for the far south, but the northern half of England looks worse as well as the extreme east of E Anglia, too. To me the strongest wind gusts are a little more widespread on the 12z.
Yes definitely more widespread but also (slightly) weaker with a northerly shift.
Look at the timeframes when the storm is off the coast of southern Ireland and compare 6z to 12z, noticeably weaker than 06z.
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3 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:
I think this too, lets hope its much calmer tomorrow morning (and much further south
We can hope but I doubt it.
There will be little change from now until Friday in my opinion, it might trend to a slight downgrade in windspeeds but the majority of the south will see 60 - 80+mph.
Not ideal!
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38 minutes ago, Paul said:
UKV 12z continues the theme of pretty unpleasant viewing for Friday.
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv
I just looked back through the previous UKV runs and it does seem to be slightly downgrading each run. Compare the 6z run to the 12z, there is a noticeable difference in windspeeds.
Possibly a trend?
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not good for my area as we will get the warm sector and just end up with slush
Indeed, the chart posted by Ryan is marginal at best for many in the SE. It could be a rain to snow event but it would predominantly be sleet and would not settle.
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About an inch so far in Harrow from what I've heard.
Nothing settling in Central London, but was to be expected.
None settling? I'm in Central London and can confirm that it has DEFINATELY settled.
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Snow starting to pick up in intensity in Central London. Sitting right next to Kings Cross and its settling easily and starting to build.
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I live about 5 miles east of Guildford. Got around 3-4cm's.
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You live in the wrong place!
Ye that's nuts. 8cm!!! I live near Guildford which is what 10-15 miles at the most. We got a few cm's from Saturday and most of it was gone by Sunday night and all by monday afternoon.
Bizarre what a few miles makes.
Storm Eunice - 18th February
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Why not! Looks quite fun tbh....