JamesC
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Posts posted by JamesC
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Someone's got to inject some positivity into the discussion!!!! When do you think our best chance for snowfall is? I'm thinking Wednesday night into Thurs morning with the cold uppers coming in, it may create some good convection in the North Sea with the vast temperature differences and set us up with a Kent Streamer (winds are to N/E'ly to be a Thames Streamer). There is still time for change...................................
Thoughts anyone?
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GFS 6z does make this a more knife edge weekend for us. From a really really selfish point of view, my locale has been under a pink area for several runs and for almost the whole weekend. Anyway, as we get closer to the cold, I must be careful not to lead people astray with run to run comments, only viewing one models output and using snow risk charts that are a rough guess at best - I just can't help ramping!!
Yes but this chart is also showing it should be snowing now.
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120131/06/06/prectypeuktopo.png
The GFS snow chart (as I'm sure you know) is pretty vague at best. To be honest I think our chances of substantial snow fall seem to be diminishing with every run at the moment
Such a shame as the charts a few days ago showed us being in a real freezer akin to last winter. Still we should have a good chance of a streamer or snow showers at some point between wed night to friday. However I think Roger's prediction of thundersnow and 60cm will be far of the mark............................Yamkin, please prove me wrong and say we'll all be getting 6ft drifts
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Latest 12z run looks like a downgrade compared to the 06z in the early stages. HP is further to the east meaning the cold uppers take that little bit longer to reach us and I'm guessing that upstream we will see them leave sooner IF the Atlantic pushes in. Incredible the amount of difference 100 miles makes.
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well it should have been snowing in our area for about the past 3 hours but it hasn't. a possible fail so far....
The GFS precip charts are rubbish for use in detail, good for looking for trends. Use the NAE precip chart. It's much better.
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Met check is saying Max of -1c from Thursday through to Sunday...........with a bit of snow in there as well.
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=gu4&day=3
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Streamers tend to head SW, W or S, but can sometimes go almost west towards Guildford but usually don't go above Rickmansworth i don't think.
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/443/streamers.png/
Edit: How to u upload an image?
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you are in a strip which usually does well from thames streamers angled from the north east .
the strip extends across most of south and east london, obviously the further south and east you are , the better. new addington and the down slopes got a foot from the streamers last year.
havent had time to look so don't know whether wednesday's feature is likely to do be such an event or whether it is coming across a shorter sea track from the south east, if it is , there may be less snow.
I live near Guildford (south and west of london) and we benefited alot from Streamers last year and the year before. In Feb 09 we got 16 inches in one night and around 10 inches last winter over a 3/4 day period. Hopefully the streamer that COULD happen later this week will give us the same amounts
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hi all!! hoping some one with experience may be able to help!! taking my children from london to eurodisney on thursday, is this storm likely to have a big impact to us on friday many thanks for any answers !!
At present yes. The models are showing the worst winds to be in northern france........mostly, so this will include Paris. I would'nt want to go on any large rollercoasters if I were you. Of course the models can and most probably will change, I'm expecting the LP to shift further north, perhaps 100 miles. So this should aleviate Paris a bit. Not looking great tho.
Hope this helps.
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Underlying air temperature on Cairngorm summit was actually down at -3.4C at 2pm:
http://www.weatheron...ratur&LEVEL=140
Tomorrow's MWIS reckons that at 900m in the Cairngorms it will be -6C; but will feel as cold as minus 25 Celsius directly in the wind. Bearing in mind that the highest Cairngorm summits are over 1300m the severity of the conditions on the Cairngorms plateaux will be mind-boggling. Hope all climbers and walkers are safe.
That would indeed be unpleasant. Planning on climbing Aconcagua next year. I checked the weather there a couple of months ago. Wind chill was -65c. Now that is cold.
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http://cairngormweather.eps.hw.ac.uk/current.htm
-1c and windspeed's of 165mph. Wonder what the windchill is?
haha
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Highest gust now 151 mph at Cairngorm Summit.
Metoffice ^^^
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That's probably just someone who has had too much Scotch at luncheon and has knocked over their chair. Any news on the strongest gust recorded?
130mph near Fort William. According to the BBC.
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This quoted from the BBC website.
A gust of 89mph has been recorded in Tiree. The Ski area at Aonach Mor, just outside Fort William in the Highlands has reported a wind gust of 130 mph.
That's pretty insane. I'm glad I'm sitting down in london in a nice cushty office at the moment!
Good luck.
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Can't believe no one has mentioned the storm out near the southern tip of Greenland.
http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111207/06/63/airpressure.png
That is one hell of a low pressure......more powerful than the one hitting Scotland over Thursday night.
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If the 12z GFS verifies then Saturday will be the first day this season that daytime temps will be in single digits country wide, Something to look forward too. GFS has a much more Westerly regime in this run, so would be a little milder with less PM incursions. GFS winds a massive low up at T114 which was no where near as deep on the 06z. No way is cooler/colder/milder or just plain average sorted yet. If I were a betting man I would go with the last few GFS ensemble means and say average to slightly below average at times. We shall see!!!.
I think that in this kind of pattern it is all about small margins.
http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0
That's quite a nice little change
. Would be pretty chilly up north.I know this is way out in FI but it's a great chart!!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=0
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How long has this HP been sitting over Greenland for now? It seems it has been there for months. Is this normal for summer?
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http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110311/06/105/ukmaxtemp.png
Looking nice for next week!! 16 degree's! W00P
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Sorry Yamkin, but when will this straw clutching end?
Never? Isn't that why we love Yamkin. It will be mid summer and he'll be screaming about thundersnow!!!!
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Has anyone seen the 12z GFS?
http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110302/06/93/h850t850eu.png
Surely if this high moves north or west we'll be right on the money?
If it moves north we get a bitter easterly and if it moves west we get clobbered by a cold northerly? Both would bring back cold temps.
Anyone care to comment?
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http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110120/06/192/prectypeuktopo.png
In FI but you never know
Something to keep an eye on!
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Someone's got to inject some positivity into the discussion!!!! 
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London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - II
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Indeed, I have to say I would not like to be a MetO forecaster today. There is a risk of heavy snow in the SE over the next few days and also a risk of absolutely nothing as well. At the moment it seems they are siding with the absolutely nothing route and it appears that they are already wrong!!!!
-- sitting on the Olympic Park at the moment and it's snizzling!!