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dixonoid

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Posts posted by dixonoid

    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by dixonoid

    We have been in a blocked pattern for most of last year, due to the ssw early last year, I don't quite think normal UK weather has resumed it's normal pattern, so this ssw will eventually deliver , as someone has said, the vortex had split with downwelling to lower levels, so I think we would have to be really unlucky to see proper winter arrive.

    The ensembles have been like a roller coaster, although I have watched the weather models, I've had more interest in the ensembles, coz they are showing how unpredictable the models are being in the medium and as always long range. My 10 pence worth, lol 

    • Like 9

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Omg!! I do believe the hunt for cold is over, in my freezer there was ice everywhere,on a serious note, this year has been controlled by high pressure one way or another, after the strat warming earlier in the year, the weather hasn't been the same, no constant attacks from low pressure from the Atlantic, so the odds are, if we get the blocking high in the right position I feel this winter is going to be very cold and I looks like mainly coming from the east. With the PV allover the place, not allowing a strong jet, which produces the low pressure conveyer and any future strat warming are just going to play further unpredictable havock with our weather, warmer sst's after the summer will help with the North sea snow Machine when a proper easterly sets up

     

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 10/02/2018 at 20:31, bobbydog said:

    It seems to me that after a point the models want to keep the Atlantic flowing and very much struggle with ssw's, as I understand a strong SSW reverses the flow, so our weather comes from the east, been a strange old winter with lots of winter weather from the NW, quite unusual but the USA has had a quite cold winter so far, even Florida experiencing frost :-) . past experience model watching, says a beast from the east might appear closer than day 10 :-)

     

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think the easterly this time is going to be a lot different and the block is going to be stubborn to shift, as the Vortex is on the move a more European position than Canadian, so it's going to be third time lucky by the looks of it and we are going to actually get a cold easterly or Beasterly!! :-) The pattern this year has been a Siberian high with undercutting lows and not much in the way of -Nao, which every one has been looking for! Hopefully we get a Negative Nao soon or i feel we may have another write off summer with the Northern blocking we have been looking for!

    PV more Canada based

    h850t850eu.png

    Pv Moving into more european position :-)

    h850t850eu.png

    I think this cold snap is going to have a nasty sting to it :-)

    Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi TEITS.

    For the benefit of newbie's like myself, can you tell me what the attachements mean in terms of weather please?

    Thanks.

    Well the Nogaps has good blocking over greenland, and would mean cold weather, maybe prolonged, and the GFS 12z ensembles are showing a cold snap from friday 20th until about the 23rd! And because the ensembles are clusttered together, the potential is greater as there is good agreement from the control and all the perturbations, during this period.

    Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Since we have a lull before the 12z rolls out, here is the milder midweek interlude, temps thereafter drop slightly but then recover to 8-9c in the south next satuday, hopefully that won't happen and we will get a colder spell starting on thursday and then intensifying.

    Going by the GFS, the above may be right.

    But looking at the ECM and UKMO, maybe, not so mild, struggling to maybe 2-3c during the day on saturday.

    ecmt850.144.png

    Rukm1441.gif

    Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by dixonoid

    GEM 144HRS

    Rgem1441.gif

    UKMO 144HRS

    Rukm1441.gif

    NOGAPS 144HRS

    Rngp1441.gif

    ECM 144HRS

    Recm1441.gif

    GFS 144HRS

    Rtavn1441.png

    Looking at the above models, GFS seems to be the only one not showing some sort of northerly flow at this time! But the ECM still showing a colder flow on Saturday, but seems to have moved towards the GFS, but is somewhere inbetween the UKMO and the GFS. But at this moment at 144hrs, there looks like there is more support for some sort of northerly than not! But a long way out at the moment, when it gets a lot nearer I will be happy, would be nice to see better agreement between the models, would make this thread easier to follow.

    Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by dixonoid

    w2f120.jpg

    I have had a look at the the Nh for 120 hrs, and the biggest difference between the 3 is the ridge in the atlantic and the GFS does look very flat, so in my eyes although there isn't total model agreement, the GFS looks like it is still on it's own. And looking at the GFS ensembles

    t850Cambridgeshire.png

    There does seem to be a lot of uncertainty after day 4, which is about the time the models have been showing the change to happen (to colder that is)

    So for me, when the 18/19 th is sorted model wise, things should look a bit clearer, maybe! But one thing that is for sure, it isn't going to be overly mild, looking at the mean for my neck of the woods, showing on average -4 uppers, from about the 20th.

    Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the posts today, by what I can make out, the GFS seems to be on it's own and by a recent post about the NOAA discussions, struggling after 72 hours, I do like the look of the ECM because it shows the colder weather, but this model seems to have some support by other models, ie: UKMO. So my feeling is that the GFS will fall into line with the ECM, not because it's showing cold, because it seems to have been more consistant the last couple of days.

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by dixonoid

    The Fax chart are based on what the pro's think at the Met Office. This updates around 10.30 tonight and the Pro's will have to go with the ECM or the UKMO. They will have a good look at the ensembles and probably go with the mean. I don't believe the Met care too much for the GFS.

    I just had a look at 120hrs on the ECM 6z & 12z and UKMO 0z and 12z, so going by what they think about the pattern so far, it looks like things are moving too quickly across the atlantic by this time frame ( just looking at the high pressure over us on the fax and it is a lot further west then the UKMO and ECM show.

    Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by dixonoid

    Just a quick question, the fax chart shows the high pressure over us further west @120 hrs, how do they work out the fax chart, is it a combination of the models and finding the middle ground?

    PPVO89.png

    Because looking at this chart, are they thinking that the pattern is moving west to east to quickly? Maybe a weaker jet,just a thought. Thanks.

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