sclarke
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Posts posted by sclarke
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Not holding my breath for any snow here at the weekend.
Temperature at the moment is 1C (34F).
-2 in soton and dropping!
-8.4 DP
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How about a bit further west in Bournemouth? Will it get this far?
All subject to alot of change, but IMO the further west you are the better chances we will have - as I think the models are pushing the front too far east at the mo, and we'll see this sort it's self out in the next couple of days.
Saying that though, the entire situation is still extremely volitile, and I'm still confident that this will be a nowcasting event as it will chop and change before then.
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what do the latest ecm and gfs outputds mean for the south coast regarding sunday and snow pro's in this thread ?
If it stays at it is, we're in the sweet spot for sure. Central Southern Britain is where it will be based on the output....but the front may still move slightly further west.
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People on mod thread saying about feb 1996 and maybe a repeat. I lived up in Bromley then an font remember anything significant! What did I miss lol
I think that's the point!
If I'm thinking of the right event, everything was setup like this time, but the front went too far west so there was no PPN.
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I'm kind of new to these forums, and model following in all honesty, but out of interest - what were the models showing a couple of Februaries ago? We had that insane snowfall event that caught a few by surprise.
Alot of times in the little experience I have, these turn out to be now casting events rather than studying the charts days before as it's such a dynamic situation.
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Well if that was our snowfall it was pretty pathetic - it's stopped and really was a case of blink & you miss it - you're welcome to it Coast lol
Better than nothing! All we've had this year is double figure temperatures, damaging winds.....
Snow for however long in is a bonus based on this winter so far! Probably snowed for about 1 hour continuous in Southampton, ground was wet so nothing laid.
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Snowing in Southampton
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Hmm.. someone has told me that its currently sleeting on the Isle of Wight.. Can't be true.
Well it's Raining in Southampton with a temp of 6 degrees, so I'd find that hard to believe!
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hi mate . i am based at totton by asda ...... west side of southampton ....... we have had a 5mb drop in less than an hour ......... they say 8mb in 3 hours for gales ....... i still have a sneaky feeling that us on the far south coast are going to feel this storm more significantly than many people think ......... unless the eye of the storm passes right over us then we are technically right on the edge of it with pressure like this dropping so fast too .........
Yep exactly, i reckon we'll feel the force in some way. I'm actually not too far from you, I'm in the Nursling area which is the west side too. I'm hoping for snow more than anything though, last year around this time was amazing for this area - never seen anything like it since I've been here.
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Not sure we'll get anything in Southampton......anyone else have any thoughts on our chances? I'm thinking more of a rain/sleet event here.
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i still think this has a suprise or two in store . pressure 992mb in southampton 10mb drop in 3 and a half hours . anyone still feel this is going to swing slightly north and affect south coast
pressure dropping like a bomb here in southampton
Hi peter....what part of soton are you in? I'm also in Southampton and have noticed the pressure dropping.
I've always felt that we'd still get some pretty strong winds here as we're right on the coast. Not as strong as it could have been, but noticable IMO.
The snow risk for us is there too looking at the latest output, but it is extremely marginal for us. More of a sleet event for the far south IMO.
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I still think exposed areas along the Solent and the South Coast could potentially take quite a hit, even if it tracks slightly further south.
Anyway - these models have been chopping and changing for days now, I honestly don't think we’ll truly know what's going to happen until a good few hours before, it's very volatile.
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Current reading in Soton:
Current: 988.0 mb
1-Hour Trend: Falling Rapidly 3-Hour Trend: Falling rapidly -
It's totally raging out there in Southampton.
Lamp posts are swaying in the wind, bins are being blown over. Not much rain yet, just drizzle being blown around at great force.
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Another dull cloudy day here, 3C after dropping to 1C last night, no snow in any forecasts at all
i'd keep and eye on the ''event'' coming in from the west for Monday, if our temps drop over the next few days due to the NE wind then it may push west enough to give us something to talk about.
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temps now dropping like a stone here
Temp: -.0.1c
Humidity: 84% Decreased 4% since last hour
Humidex: -2.6°C
Dew Point: -2.3°C
I still don't think the Hampshire area will see anything from this low pushing from france, maybe the odd flurry but nothing more. (please prove me wrong!!!)
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With the warm up, I was looking at a couple of days beyond (see attachment) but you could argue that is outside the reliable time frame, and you'd be right.
Yes boxing day still looks a tad nippy but I don't see much precip about over the weekend?? Possibly late boxing day into monday?
Total agreement on your last sentence.
sorry - didn't make that clear, yep i was refering to late into boxing day and into the bank holiday.
on our local weather station site it's given us a 30% chance through to a 50% chance of snow during monday night into monday. Although i'm not sure how acurate that thing ever is.
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I have to admit that the models are now pointing to a warmer spell of weather next week, but I'm with a lot of people on here in that it would be nice to be able to walk normally again.
In the short term the BBC are still talking about this little band of snow that may sink itself south tonight. Probably one to watch on the radar and presumably it will involve the north of our region.
Unless this does come steaming south I'm checking out for now.
Happy Xmas to one and all
Not too sure, the models do show mild air coming in but it now looks like it isn't going to last for long, or even effect some areas of the UK. In fact boxing day looks absoloutley bitter at the moment with lots of PPN but we'll have to wait and see. Got a feeling we're going to see much more distruption before the winters out.
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Has anyone else noticed on the satellite images that this little blob in the channel looks to be part of a little low? there is something of a pattern to the clouds, particularly at the 20:00 image and also how the precip on raintoday seems to be following a similar form. of course i could simply be going a bit mad. its been one of those days...
Possibly is part of some system - posters on the south eastern thread seem to think so.
They've tracked it's trajectory NE - hitting Southampton, Farnborough - Heathrow... etc
Whether it hits land as snow though is another thing - temp is just bouncing between -0.4 / -0.2 at the mo (same with the DP)
Possibly not long till it hits the west of the IOW (it's really growing in intensity, but looks to be pretty fast moving) - would be interesting to know if it hits you lot as snow or plain rain.
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annoyingly, temps and DP's on the rise again now.
+1 degrees.
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Do you have a relative humidity reading as I understand you can work it out from that! but you'll have to google for this or speak to Butler Son because he knows how.
Anyway, that's the type of trend we all need, back into the freezer
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
got it...
currently 0.4c and falling, Dew Point: 0.5°C
and falling -
Oh well you've got to love this weather and it's been all in the offing today.
It's getting borderline for RAIN soon even for us folks along the M4 corridor if this trend continues but we shall see, I hope my fears will come to nothing
and all that.Still a fair bit of snow to shift and I won't be relying any models for the next few days, will just be looking at the immediate trends.
Attached is my worrying trend re dewpoints etc., even for those away from the coast now! Please bring me some clear skies so the temperature can plummet!
Cheers
gottolovethisweather
interestingly the temp has almost dropped below freezing here again, not quite...but it's been dropping steadily for the last 30mins (got up to +0.7)
I have no idea wht the DP is here though as the weather station doesn't show that info, or i can't find it..!
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Snow dog thinks... Precipitation coming from the West timed with a sudden drop in temps = a Winter Wonderland! Don't get your hopes up too much though Snow dog might be seasoned but she's not always right :winky: I just hope big hubby makes it back through the snow the Van has a heavy load
I must admit, it does seem to be pushing along the coast.
This winter has been a total nowcast event, new fronts and streamers developing all of the time. Although the BBC have really got the last 3 days as bang on as they could. Really impressive forecasts tbh.
1-Hour Trend: Falling Rapidly 3-Hour Trend: Falling rapidly
South Central England Regional Discussion Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by sclarke
Out of interest, what was the setup prior to the huge snowfall in the hampshire area last December? I didn't follow that on here, so haven't got a clue what the models were saying then.