[Storm Ciarán]

24 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Heaven forbid the authorities try to act on the basis of advice received. You'd be the first to scream blue murder if the unthinkable happened. Just because your own back yard is fine does not mean everywhere else is. Stop making yourself look silly and actually have some consideration for the wider picture.

I’m very happy to make my own decisions based on fact at the ‘right’ time, ie can my children go to school this am. Yes! Not using data that was based on weather models well over 36 hours ago. Ps. I didn’t scream in 1987 or cry when I walked in a snow drift. Happy Thursday all. Do take care as life is full of risks  

[Storm Ciarán]

Just now, Fiona Robertson said:

How? They advised what the weather might do and left the decisions up to you.

They didn’t leave the decision for 1000s of parents in Hampshire to decide because they based the evidence on out of date data and shut all the schools!! If they had let us all decide this am, all of the kids in Hampshire would be going to school today. Make the decision at 6 / 7am not based on models that ran over 24hours before.

[Storm Ciarán]

2 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Here's the warning matrix for winds in Southampton. Southampton was on the western edge of the amber area.

Could you advise when the risk assessment was undertaken noting that timing is key?

[Storm Ciarán]

3 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I'm glad the impact in your area has been less than you may have expected, however the warning system is based on a combination of severity of impact and liklihood of said impact. It doesn't mean you will get the severe impacts, it's a probabilities game, it means there's a chance you might get severe weather. When you go out in your car you don't get into a crash every time. Do you then complain that your seatbelt was a waste of time? The warning system gives peeps a heads-up of what may be coming their way. It gives them a chance to make any preparations they deem necessary.

It's also important to bear in mind that forecasting the track of this storm has been difficult because of how late and close to the UK it finally exited the jet stream and the track would ultimately decide how severe and widespread the effects of the worst winds would be.

On top of that, you appear to be close to the centre of it where the winds are less fierce. I'm in Scotland, I have nothing, but I don't begrudge a warning for those being impacted by Ciaran. It's weather. Conditions vary from place to place. The Met Office cannot base its warning system for the entire UK based on what the conditions will be over bevo's house east of Southampton.

Yes I totally agree it’s based on forecasting and probability. However, 24 hours ago, the evidence / data was clearly showing the storm was tracking much further south, hence the awful conditions in France & C.I’s that we now see. The Hampshire Major Incident was declared yesterday evening well within a timeframe that even we knew on this community that the likely impact to Hampshire would be minimal. They didn’t declare a major incident last week when the winds caused havoc here. I’m sorry, but on this occasion the communication between the Met Office and Hampshire was clearly wrong. Rant over as I’m off to home school my kids yet again whilst also trying to earn a living! 

[Storm Ciarán]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

I think it's been pretty clear for 48 hours that Southampton was just going to see an average storm. It will pick up a bit during the morning as the back edge of the storm swings past.

So why did Hampshire declare a major incident. There isn’t any incident other than depriving 1000s of kids an opportunity to learn. I’m sorry but Hampshire got this very wrong. I accept it is bad elsewhere but we’ve had much worse wind here and the kids still went to school no problem. 

[Storm Ciarán]

I’m right on the coast east of Southampton and I honestly have seen more stormy weather in my teacups each morning. Apart from the Channel Islands and very exposed coastal areas this has been well over played. My kids school is shut today. Eversince Covid, we’ve become a nation of snowflakes. I went to school on the am of the great storm of 1987 and walked through snow drifts as a kid. Strongest gust so far in mainland U.K. is less than 77mph!!

[Storm Ciarán]

Judging by the latest track, I think the authorities are acting on data that’s already out of date. Other than exposed southern coastal areas and the Channel Islands I think this will be more a storm in a teacup with the usual over cooked media hype. Yes it will be windy (it’s normal, it’s autumn!) but this isn’t a hurricane or is it?!!

[The changing daylight hours thread]

The clocks go back on Sun 29th Oct, 7 weeks and 4days before the shortest day on 21st Dec. 
Can someone explain to me why we then have to wait 14 weeks and 3 days after the shortest day until we return to BST on Sun 31st March? 
If we can all cope 7 weeks leading up to the shortest day on BST, why can’t we return to BST 7 weeks after the shortest day? I.e., Sunday 11th Feb? 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Not very often in this country do we see the whole of U.K. covered in weather warnings….

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Same here. Feel like a fraud for staying off work and even contemplating going in right now?! 

It’s most definitely starting to gust storm force under my duvet. Other than that a gentle breeze between Southampton and Portsmouth

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I'll say it again, I never rate August, in the rankings it lags far behind May, June and July, and on the settled stakes April..

Can whoever shared the decade long August stats for Bournemouth airport post them again as that’s conclusive evidence of the persistent poor weather for the U.K. in this ‘summer’ month. If you’re banking on proper summer weather, I conclude never book it in August in the U.K. unless you like rain, cold and disappointment! 

[Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter]

We kept dreaming and it never happened this year:

April - cold and dry

May - wet and cold

June - high rainfall

July - mixed weather

 August - mixed weather.

September = Autumn Game over

 

 

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Yes.

That is shocking but something I concur with here on the south coast. I’d never recommend booking a holiday in August - just never that great anymore and I pray I’m proved wrong this year!

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

This is from Hurn airport where records go back to 1969. I’ve only got downloaded to 2017 but the August drop is bordering on alarming. Sorry for the picture I downloaded the records to my work PC for some reason…

 

Is that showing sunshine hours?

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

you have a short memory sir ... 2 years ago we had a roasting august bank holiday.. august 2003 and 1995 were hot too ..

I enjoyed the ‘warmth’ two years ago sat on a beach near Weymouth but it was warm air not the hot sun of mid summer you get in June / July.

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

Assuming models are correct with no real summer spell until at least mid August I think that’s game over for proper ‘hot’ conditions, more like pleasant at best. The days are shorter, the sun is lower in the sky and as soon as September arrives our friend Mr Dew starts landing with mist and fog too.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

My spring like sky...On a positive note, the nights start drawing in soon and we can go on the eternal hunt for the white stuff much like these spring patterns!