Bolt From Blue
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Posts posted by Bolt From Blue
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Sprites Thank you for the heads up, will have to hope things haven't become modified or a cold pool exists that moves over the North Sea as the storms over Belgium had been poorly modelled.
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Belgian storms just moving into radar range, looks in a good position for SE, Essex, and hopefully here in Suffolk. I can't see how they are holding up just yet unless someone has any info. Hopefully these storms haven't changed/used up the expected energy profiles and make it across the North Sea.
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Eagle Eye Would this tie in with your earlier outlook today where said developments could be the difference between a SE hit and EA hit? Either way provided the energy has had a chance to ride in ahead of what is an early and poorly modelled area of development my attention is firmly on that at least for my location.
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Methuselah Me three. It depends if enough energy and forcing is available this far up. Seen it reach Colchester and fizzle too many times in recent years because of these factors. Time will tell.
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Beautifully taken pictures. I guess the level of saturation is suppressing potential lightening from these cells. A shame in a sense as things have picked up a lot.
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That’s awesome, looks like you can never say never. I wonder if we can get any scraps here on the East Anglian coast
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Elevated Supercell north of Hastings?
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That really highlights what an impactful amount of rainfall large areas of the UK has seen.
It just goes to show that even when you prepare we often get caught out, especially here in East Anglia when events like this can be decades apart, and towns and villages have expanded on natural run offs etc.
I hope anyone affected has a swift recovery.
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What a day here in East Suffolk, I've been busy driving in my coach around evacuating Thomas Mills school in Framlingham and Stradbroke High.
This was Framlingham just an hour after we got clear and the river burst.
The Video is just outside Dennington not long after the buses were released from the school, my good friend Steve who was driving the Coach made it through, the car not so lucky.
76mm of rain in Charsfield up to 1500hrs, which is the closest village with a figure, so likely much the same around the area.
Hope you can see the uploads because I'm not good with such things!
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Just like that things have come to life very close, time to watch the show.
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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
A number of elevated thunderstorms developing on the S coast... Not sure models were particularly keen in recent runs for this to happen.
AROME was close but earlier with initiation. I'm staying up now, appears the French MCS has not had an adverse effect on things.
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38 minutes ago, sunnijim said:
Don't really want that MCS over NE Francr drifting in towards the SE, would prefer taking chances on individual storms firing and drifting for the lucky.
A warm East/SE breeze here.
High risk high reward for some
This has me concerned too, one of three possible options with this. 1 It hoovers up all the CAPE and decays leaving a turned over mess and nothing for those in the warning area. 2 Kent clipper and North Sea Special. 3 Kent and the E/A coast get something noteworthy as per MetCheck.
The Channel Island storms are likely forming off outflow.
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I gather we are expecting another poor effort over the weekend regarding MUCAPE and potential overnight storms?
Not much being said about it other than it is a plume but not a plume, which to me implies the low is not disrupting and setting up the more classic type scenario but instead doing what it did back in June which lead to the energy staying over France and steering winds from the NE= Kent clipper/North Sea rumble/subsequent fail.
I know we still have a day or two to watch but any latest info is always much appreciated.
As a side note, had a lovely BBQ at work Tuesday evening under the Cambridge anvil, I couldn't miss out on burgers to do the hours drive though, guess I'm not hardcore enough.
Fantastic pictures going round too.
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More grey sky, is this the undercut we were warned about? Another week or more of waiting for some decent sun if this HP sits in the wrong place throughout this expected settled spell.
Its been a fantastic season so far for many areas, decent sun big convection etc. But for some reason there are patches that have managed nothing but grey sky since mid June.
Still I'm not giving in yet something just has to give!
Have a nice afternoon especially if you are enjoying some welcome sun and warmth.
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Well we were only discussing this the other day, plumes don't cut it anymore.
All the MUCAPE stays over France into the North Sea and across to Netherlands/Denmark because of wonky trajectory and steering winds keeping destabilising just out of reach.
Only lucky grazes for areas mentioned (we had a small very average storm on Suffolk coast as the most northern extent) with decent storms in Kent and South Essex early hours Thursday morning only.
Matches last year for here at least although that doesn't take much beating, will we ever see the likes of more Northerly trajectories that engulf much more of the country or were we just extremely unlucky?
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14 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Also a big point to note is ideally we want as little surface-based activity as possible over Northern France today since this will lead to modifications of the atmosphere by using up some of the "juice".
Yes mentioned this last night, ESTOFEX going for relatively capped across much of France with developments growing upscale into the MCS across northern France SE UK.
Will await this afternoon.
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So it would seem the differences between how widespread and how much electrical activity are tied to how much energy can reach us (with everything else in place), which in turn is dependant on surface based storms over France in the afternoon modifying things too much.
This happened back in June 2019 when supercells over France actually sat there hoovering up the energy and ruined what was supposed to be a good event.
With all the shuffling East to West to contend with we could probably do with LESS surface based stuff happening over France to allow the energy to make it unmodified.
Then we have Friday and Sat to iron out.
Very exciting days ahead for most, could this break the deadlock for those that have missed out for years?
I'd say best chance in a while.
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14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
GEM is showing something turning up next week that could potentially be an imported thunderstorm.
GFS showing something similar but a bit earlier.
Still a while out but closer than opportunities have been as of lately and within 150 hours.
BBC Weather hinting at something as well so we can safely say it won't be happening lol.
Those CAPE and LI charts as always look strikingly similar to recent times with it all staying over France.
I do hope as things draw closer we get in on the game, several days of very warm/hot temps and high humidity going out with nothing has become an unwelcome pattern over recent years.
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27 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:
Been a while since I last posted on here, judging by current weather models I'm guessing it looks to be just a gradual break down rather than anything thundery or worth keeping an eye on?
More than probably, as it stands a dead cold front moving down from the NW after days of very warm/hot temps and high humidity.
Massive SB and MU cape over northern France nothing in the south UK, if it does pop it will be northern UK just because.
Not a forecast and hopefully won't happen like this, but I set my expectations low these days.
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Yeah totally dig the last 5-10 year thing, "warm nose" is almost constantly capping things.
Plumes as said don't cut it, they destabilize over the North Sea because of wonky trajectory with the MUCAPE covering France then remaining offshore in the North Sea stretching over to Denmark.
July 2019 was the last and most classic example, although here we did get a lucky glance, the bulk was 30 miles offshore. This after days of raw record breaking heat, to add insult the storms had tops at flight level in the early evening (love for someone to verify) and it was a painful miss within a year of many misses.
Last year? Well say no more.
I'm still sure at some point somethings got to give so I just enjoy what I can and await the 90s throwback we used to see.
Have a nice evening.
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Quite extensive convective stratiform which may indicate the dry air intrusion has yet to reach here or we are now dependant on CZs later.
Not that anything major was set to happen anyway, but it could be one of those catch 22 stratiform problems unless things time well this afternoon and evening, that is clearer slots, deeper convection along CZs along with overlap of dry air.
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Anyone in east Kent? Looks like some cells fired south offshore in the last 15mins.
Edit: Not gaining any traction.
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When you read; "Kent Clipper" and "Not much energy to tap into" combined with "Severe over the near continent" You know how this will play out.
Very little being said about it so unless by some godly change of fortune we get a nice surprise, expectations for me are very low.
A casual eye this evening because I still can't help it either way!
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Well that looked promising then fell to bits.
Going through the radar it appeared the outflow of the strong cells offshore of Kent/Essex developed a small area that looked like forming a small MCS at 1930hrs ( anyone in Clacton see anything?).
Once the cells died off the area lost intensity right as it came over, thought I heard a distant rumble before it reached.
In all honesty it looks like the air has been turned over now and any available energy has lowered, the cold front will be pushing east as the night goes on whether this just pushes the plume away or activates some early hour storms for far SE remains to be seen.
As for me, next one please unless something unexpected wakes me up.
Now just as i post this area South of Brighton gains some intensity!
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Sprites Too true, especially with the rare direction any storms would be coming in at this time. We have had some good ones from this angle in the past so I'll keep watch and wish everyone else in with a shout a good show.