Can often be surprised by marginal events, December 16th 2011, a snow event predicted to hit West Mids ( Wolverhampton Dudley) actually hit my area and further south around Beeston quite badly.There was still no indication of this change, until the event actually happened , and i was caught out ( as i was travelling on the A41)No matter what the models forecasts say, slight changes to the front/ block as it moves through, can change precipitation amounts/types in an instant.