[Moans, ramps and banter]

3 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Why is it so easy for cold to be pushed out of the way nowadays?

In the 80s, cold blocks would put up a real fight to hold back the mild and wet weather, and we'd have snow events which would last for hours.

And sometimes the cold would win, and we'd be kept cold.

But now, it's as if all the rules have been changed.

Scandinavian high pressure. 
lot harder to shift than the faux Greenland high we’ve just witnessed. 
a similar 80’s set up could be round the corner according to latest model runs. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

I’ve spent years model watching craving the winters from my childhood. 
I’ve accepted they seldom materialize in the uk,2010 being an exception. 

The models are mere cogs in the larger forecasting machine and mustn’t be taken too seriously past day  4/5.Too many hanging on there every run only to suffer when the inevitable happens and the output is watered down,when it comes into the reliable timeframe. 

Cold winters unfortunately are becoming a thing of the past.The models merely indicating what’s likely to happen,not the driver. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Is it possible that the affects of the SSW will be felt in a couple of weeks?and not immediately. 
If so then the charts we are viewing aren’t a direct tropospheric response to the SSW but standard winter weather. 
Maybe fi in this instance should be taken more seriously?  
Something noteworthy has surely got to materialise from this winter. 

[Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Evening all

spent years watching the models,very seldom they are wrong,even more rarely they backtrack.nothing but cold rain in the output and tbh anyone who can see anything but,are kidding themselves. 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

Morning all

Cold still on the way,uncertainty on how long it will last but that is always the case.

GFS op run a mild outlier in the later stages,majority ensembles showing cold.

We've seen the models deviate run to run when there is a major pattern change afoot in the past.

ECM looks to me like it couild deliver a true scandi high.the high doesn't to me look like toppling.-10 upper air temps on its last frame.

The trend is still for a much colder pattern.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Morning all,

 

Are we now seeing the stubborn low heights circa Greenland being removed with something more conducive to cold for the UK?,

 

Z500 anomolys seem to think so,

 

Starting chart ECM

 

   

 

 

 

Day nine

 

 

 

 

GFS start

 

 

 

 

 

Day nine

 

 

 

 

 

Further down we can see more signs from the surface pressure,

 

GFS day ten 

 

ECM day ten,

 

GFS ensembles on the slide,

 

 

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Morning all,

 

Middle strat temp now running well above the mean,not sure how long it will stay there,

It'll be interesting to see if we get any trop response further down the line.Ensembles have been sniffing a change for quite a few runs 0z indicative,

 

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Morning all,

IMHO we can never rule out a cold outbreak regardless of what the NWP show,many a cold spell has cropped up at short notice take this one for instance a seemingly dire chart below,

Fast forward ten days to this,

Aythings possible.

 

The strats warming as we speak,

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

No wolvesfan I don't think it is. The OPI called for a negative AO winter, driven by a strong Siberian high. Both these factors are wrong thus far, mainly due to the surprising weakness of the Siberian high.

The question is why has it been far weaker than expected.

My point is though its still very early in the winter,thers still time for the Russian high to become a driver this winter,of course time will tell.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Even the experts are surprised by the poor output compared to the pre-winter indices:

 

  MJVentrice

For the highest Eurasia October snow rate on record, 2014 is clearly disappointing for the -AO. http://t.co/dDSrAaWHTH

31/12/2014 11:40

 

So a big Steward's Enquiry as to what were the factors that over rode the promising setup for this winter.

With all due respect isn't it a little early to be righting off this years opi?,it is still the 31 December after all.

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Morning all,

 

All models in agreement then,a period of zonality set to take over.I wouldn't be too bullish over how long it will last though and definatly wont be righting off the rest of this month that is just plain ridiculous,weve seen cold modelled at relatively short notice and out of the blue in the past and with the current pattern I see no reason why this isn't still the possible.One or two posters comparing similarities with this year and last,sorry but I just don't see them,the zonal flow last year was a lot stronger.This year IMBY weve seen five days of lying snow and recorded 10 air frosts since the start of December I think that by far exceeds last years winter total already.

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Morning all,

 

It seems our chance of a pressure rise circa Greenland has now passed,even with the trop vortex relaxing around Baffin low heights have still scuppered any WAA from Atlantic ridging.Indeed current NWP are now pointing towards a rejuvenated trop vortex emerging in the Greenland area around the new year, with current output I would think our best chance of achieving heights that will bring cold to the UK would now be from our N/E,as I think this can be achieved whilst we have a strong trop vortex to the N/W.We have also seen heights low around the Alutians so far this winter and  the snow advancement over Russia we saw in October would I think correlate to us seeing the return of the Russian high at some point this winter.

 

ECM tries to rise pressure into Scandi  around the 29th and we see a link up with the Russian high,

Its something I'll be looking out for wether it materializes is a different matter.

Merry Christmas to you all,

Wolvesfan

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

Morning again,

One thing clear from the ensembles the operational run from the GFS  was one of the milder  solutions,

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

Morning all,

GFS operational looks an outlier and propbably one of the milder (wrong)solutions,

 

 

Last nights 18z also an outlier as can be seen from the ensemble most runs below average 850 temps,

Gem still looking cold for cold,

UK met agrees,

So does ECM,

ECM,GEM go on to build stronger blocks circa Greenland,

 

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

Evening all,

Made the mistake of coming in here tonight before I viewed the output,heres what I found when I went and looked for myself,

 

 

 

All the above showing cold for the big day.

 

Great potential going forward too.

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

Evening all,

 

Lots of talk regarding the Azores being a winter spoiler.Could be quite the opposite though as we can see from these three epic charts below,

 

 

 

 WAA from the Azores fuelled the above.We wont get a sustained HLB without it.

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

Afternoon all,

 

Lots of speculation of what's going to happen out into the low resolution of the various model runs.The hear and now of the situation is that its cold and if you don't believe me  go for a walk and see for yourself,todays temps,

60mph N/W gusts and we have a significant wind chill.

 

Modeling looks good for cold in the high res part,GFS indicative,

Still looks great out to next Wednesday,

After that take with a pinch of salt.

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter]

Morning all.

 

Its nice to see something more seasonal has arrived,Tomorrows chart indicative,

Cant say I'm too despondant going forward either.Hemisphericaly GFS in particular shows the heights which have been persistently low circa Baffin Island begin to drain and the residule energy eventually pushed to the Siberian sector.

Week three looks  good to me for potential although here on the ground we might have to suffer a while before we get what we want.

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

How far out do the MOGREPS ensembles go out to ? Anyone.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/areas/data-assimilation-and-ensembles/ensemble-forecasting/MOGREPS

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Morning all,
 
Looking odds on for a return of a more mobile flow for the UK.All  models showing the retreat of the Scandi/Russian block allowing progression of fronts into the uk,angle of entry looks good as others have stated with a constant spew of low pressure sytems from the Baffin Island vortex,N/W S/E angled as highlighted below,
 
ECM
GFS,

Temperaturs also dropping as wind swings into the N/W and taps into colder air,
 


Jet stream also picking up sum intensity,





Looks like after this weekend nothing mild on offer but plenty of cold wet and windy weather as we head into December.

[Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond]

Morning all,
 
My knowledge is limited compared to the majority on here.I cant see any cold whilst we have high pressure as such over Europe though,sceuro highs seem give nothing but mild for the uk we need some lower heights digging in.Heres a chart  I hope doesn't verify,

It will help with the strat vortex over Siberia only if it destroys it totally and dosnt relocate it closer to us.

I'd sooner see warmth over the states because that lobe over the Baffin island area looks a lot less intense to me.Surely the Siberian vortex is better where it is?.

[Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond]

Morning all,

 

AO forecast to go positive for a while,Lots of cold air upstream over the states and Canada that spewed off the pole though.Thats where our weather looks likely to come from now and we can see from the ECM that the air is cold to say the least.

 

The atlantic will dilute the cold as it crosses but to me it looks like its going to be colder than anything the east had to offer from our earlier hopes.

If the posted chart were to verify it would be hardly mild with isobars stretching back to what could be termed a cold pool.Northern hemisphere temp profile highlighting its colder to our west than east,

I for one wont be too dispondant

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

There's your answer shedhead. It's pretty obvious the pattern is changing to be fair. It's just we don't know to what pattern yet.

I'm a cold lover and it does pain me to say,but with the data we have available a slightly less intense zonal does look the form horse. Data at circa 15 days can't be taken serious.

[Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.]

Morning,

This driving everything for me at the moment,

 

Ensembles nothing to shout about,

 

Day 10 means support a continuation of the status quo,

 

OTHER 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN RECENT RUN (12UTC)

RETURN LINKS E-WALL HOME

 

Data available does suggest a continuation of the zonal pattern.Tropospheric vortex forecast to weaken but is still going to be unfavourable for heights to rise bringing cold to the uk.

[Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.]

Morning all,

Its been a good couple of weeks for us cold fans but it's all set to go milder over the weekend,by next week GFS goes for daytime maximums into double figures which will feel pretty mild compared to of late,

Dosn't last though as we get a succession of lows tracking close to the UK keeping things mobile and cool.NAO going positive indicative of lower heights to our NW being dominant.however it does head back neutral towards Feb.

Ensembles show the 850 temps to drop after the brief rise so nothing mild on offer for too long,

All this for me shows there's still plenty of cold thats spewed into the mid lattitudes for us to tap into.