feb1991blizzard
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Everything posted by feb1991blizzard
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Model output discussion 11/12/21
feb1991blizzard replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
My biggest fear is although there could be a 2 wave trop pattern, the waves dont look in the right places to me to be a precursor SSW trop pattern, which is what i fear we will need in jan, so unless our ridge gains enough lattitude to become a proper Greenland high (very unlikely), then not sure we are making progress, model watching brief only for next 3 weeks rather than any realistic hope of any radar watching. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
feb1991blizzard replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
cluster 4 excellent to bring down the strat vortex. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
feb1991blizzard replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
eps 240 mean no worse than midnight run. -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
feb1991blizzard replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
just wondering, talking about the stratosphere, where's that ingham bloke that had connections at the uk met?, he really accurately predicted that SSW last year. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
or a big model climbdown! - i can only think they are seeing the high slightly further East. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Never mentioned it, just said the GFS was showing cold. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One of them is pumping WAA up Greenland locking in a protracted cold spell, the other would be as flat as a pancake with the Atlantic blasting through in 24 or 48 hours. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold a bit too far East but could be a big convective NE or E'ly coming up by the end of the run. Miles apart from ECM - spectacular fail for one of them in coming days. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ah right - thats what it is then - thought it was strange that with low near aores and high over Iceland. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cluster 1 - 360 - i love being the pedant! EDIT : though i don't think it is +NAO at all - poor algorithm for me that. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You have to credit the met office here, they saw this dry anticyclonic spell coming way before me, they might have maybe erred a little on the mild side but thats nit picking and dependent anyway on clear skies. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bit too far east but theres still potential in this run. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WAA about to be launched up the western side of Greenland like a rocket. -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
feb1991blizzard replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EPS look a bit more aggressive than GEFS wrt how far North the ridge gets, possibly threatening Scandinavia, admittedly though even if it made it, the route it takes wouldn't be conducive to any deep cold uppers reaching these shores any time soon after.