feb1991blizzard

My biggest fear is although there could be a 2 wave trop pattern, the waves dont look in the right places to me to be a precursor SSW trop pattern, which is what i fear we will need in jan, so unless our ridge gains enough lattitude to become a proper Greenland high (very unlikely), then not sure we are making progress, model watching brief only for next 3 weeks rather than any realistic hope of any radar watching.

cluster 4 excellent to bring down the strat vortex.

eps 240 mean no worse than midnight run.

Spoiler energy south of Greenland alert!

just wondering, talking about the stratosphere, where's that ingham bloke that had connections at the uk met?, he really accurately predicted that SSW last year.

This is gonna be a stonker.

or a big model climbdown! - i can only think they are seeing the high slightly further East.

Never mentioned it, just said the GFS was showing cold.

One of them is pumping WAA up Greenland locking in a protracted cold spell, the other would be as flat as a pancake with the Atlantic blasting through in 24 or 48 hours.

Cold a bit too far East but could be a big convective NE or E'ly coming up by the end of the run. Miles apart from ECM - spectacular fail for one of them in coming days.

Was just thinking why nothing from 2010 but of course that was the short period where temps bounced back to average, felt really mild though after the -20c i eperienced just a week before.

Ah right - thats what it is then - thought it was strange that with low near aores and high over Iceland.

Cluster 1 - 360 - i love being the pedant! EDIT : though i don't think it is +NAO at all - poor algorithm for me that.

You have to credit the met office here, they saw this dry anticyclonic spell coming way before me, they might have maybe erred a little on the mild side but thats nit picking and dependent anyway on clear skies.

not bad up top either - nothing special yet but............

Heavy snow showers into N SCotland - everywhere about to get lampooned. Ive seen it red though

Below average UK temps even if the cold uppers don't reach later in the run.

Arctic crossbow about to be fired - uk is target destination. This is gonna be a stonker.

WAA UP WESTERN GREENLAND ALERT!!

bit too far east but theres still potential in this run.

WAA about to be launched up the western side of Greenland like a rocket.

Its where she goes after that that is the interest and 12 GFS up up she goes again.

And what lattitude - GET IN!

EPS look a bit more aggressive than GEFS wrt how far North the ridge gets, possibly threatening Scandinavia, admittedly though even if it made it, the route it takes wouldn't be conducive to any deep cold uppers reaching these shores any time soon after.