MurcieBoy

Many thanks indeed. Yes, its a learning curve for me on a number of fronts; afterall, it was just my fourth forecast! BTW, on the sensationalist issue that is what I was seeing from my work - I wasn't trying to be; and on the extreme conditions point, according to the BBC, a few wind records have been broken up in Scotland. IIRC, the wind meter in a weather station up in Cairngorms packed up at 115mph!

I got a link via a YouTube PM from somone in Denmark who referred me to the Danish Met Institute (DMI) website which states the following: DMI: ADVISORIES Warning of increased water levels at the west coast Issued by the DMI, 4 Februar 2011 5:45 local Danish time There are warning of increased water levels at the west coast. At high tide last night expected a water level of approx. 3.0 m above the DVR90 in the Wadden Sea at Esbjerg, Højer and Romo, and I Thorsminde and Hvide Sande 2.1 to 2.4 m above the DVR90. (Danish Vertical Reference 1990), Varsel om storm Warning of storm Issued by the DMI, 4 February 2011 13:13 local Danish time There are warning of stomers with gusts of hurricane strength in the North. Wind becoming west 22 to 26 mph with gusts to 35 mph The storm begins Saturday morning and is expected to have slowed to breeze Saturday, late afternoon.

Almost there, here are the last but one comparisons with GFS and actuals: 4 Feb 5 Feb Actuals: 28 Jan 30 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb

Thanks again for the analysis RJS and for the overall "large scale" point. I am going to take a good few days after the end of the forecast period and produce a very candid appraisal video (which I hope will bring out some interesting points for discussion/reflection). AF, yes I have a couple of extreme events forecasted for spring/summer this year (both in the USA). I shall formally publish once I have had time to digest the Feb Storm forecast and see what refinements I need to make to the US forecasts. I really do need to get back to some more research (as I have hardly done much "stepping back" thinking since September 2010 - the "variances" in the current storm forecast have given me a few things to think about!).

Well, lets just say, I live only about 5 miles south from the A27!

When I made the 12 Nov 2010 prediction, I never knew GFS or ECM forecast pressure charts existed (let alone wind or jetstream charts); indeed, I didn't even know where to go to get detailed historic weather data. The analysis and support from all on NW (in particular RJS, Coast, OldMetMan) in analysing the Storm Forecast has really helped a great deal in this regard. I am also looking forward to the end of the forecast period, so one can just step back and see what actually has happened (in overview terms) during 1-5 Feb 2011; and analyse closely the variances with the actual.

^ My word, I never knew where to look for such detail... Back to the comparison charts for today at 6z and actuals: 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb Actuals: 28 Jan 30 Jan 1 Feb 2 Feb

Coast, wow! Thanks for putting these charts up...

Morning, here are the Storm Forecast v GFS comparisons and actuals as at 6z today: 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb Actuals: 28 Jan 30 Jan 1 Feb

.... great post! Made me chuckle. .... perhaps that was my "schoolboy error" - wrong hemisphere!!!! EDIT: gosh, nothing funny about this

As the GFS and ECM models are converging and GFS comes out earlier, will only compare Storm Forecast with GFS. This is today's 06z GFS comparisons: 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb Actuals: 28 Jan 30 Jan

As always, thanks RJS. Here are the 31 Jan 12z runs: 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb Actuals: 28 Jan 30 Jan

Morning folks, re the winds, just to clarify:

Evening folks, thanks very much RJS for the update evaluation. Here are the 30 Jan 12z charts for GFS and ECM: 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb Actuals: 28 Jan 30 Jan

Morning folks, as the ECMWF models are slow coming out, the comparison on this run will be between the Storm Forecast v GFS 30 Jan 0z: 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb From the 25 Dec 2010 Forecast Appraisal Video (from 4:10 minutes), where I compared the Forecast v GFS, I found the GFS did not "lock in" to the final chart until 2 days before the event. Perhaps the current GFS model has a wee bit more to go before it locks into the 3 Feb 2011 "target day"?

As always, RJS and OldMetMan thanks very much for your posts today. RJS you hit the nail on the head re why one would wish to produce specific detailed charts weeks/months/years ahead. Its not arrogance, I just want to see the deviations with the actual (as I have explained many times, the deviations will help me refine/fine tune the method). It is worth also repeating: I am not expecting the Storm forecast charts to verify 100% (as stated in video), but equally I would be disappointed if they were widely out (and I couldn't fathom out why). OK, here are the comparisons for the first five days of Feb: 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb

I appreciate GFS likes to do this, but its getting closer folks, just one day away now from the target day:

My pleasure Paul, it was a good idea!

Ok Paul S, here are the comparison charts for 1-5 Feb at 28 Jan 0z: 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 28 January 2011 Forecast v Actual Here is the latest comparison chart (with detailed 28 Jan 6z METO FAX chart):

Here's the comparison GFS 18z and ECM 12z with the 3 Feb 2011 Storm forecast chart:

Indeed!

Wow! Thanks very much indeed for that analysis OldMetMan. This is exciting! According to the Storm forecast, the Arctic winds will change direction by 1 Feb to from Westerly to North Westerly. The ECM 12z chart for 3 Feb you provided was highlighted by LS too. For me, that chart shows my "methods" classic expectation around the UK - just a wee bit further south for that time (nb: I appreciate the Storm forecast is different for 3 Feb)

Many thanks indeed for the thorough explanation RJS. I must one day read more about your approach - your concept re energies at Full/New Moons etc is beyond me, but sounds truly fascinating nonetheless.

Thanks OON + Coast. Not having a go, but we all know how "fluid" the models are more than a few days out. The deep lows close to the UK appearing on the models have been getting closer to the target day of 3 Feb 2011 on each run. I believe this is the closest, just 3.5 days after the "target day". RJS/BLAST/Anyone - using your energy levels knoweldge/experience, any comments as whether this can happen earlier; or where the energy has come from for it to happen on 7 Feb (if the models are to be believed)? OldMetMan - you have consistently posted there was a possibility - any thoughts?