[Potential Cold Shot Incoming.]

The Irish Met Office has issued a yellow warning of snow and ice for tonight and tomorrow morning. They aren't expecting much, it says 1-2cm generally but the warning covers the entire country so there may be some surprises!

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Massive, massive downgrade. There goes January too.

Relax Guys.. There really isn't much change. Towards the end of January could be around Jan 20th - 22nd in my book!

They are still saying increased likelihood of cold weather with snow. We all know this is far from certain. 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yes, yes, yes, it's at 384......but just look what the GFSP has produced:

  

Some seriously frigid air incoming from our east/northeast.  Of course, it will be different on the next run but this is the hunt for cold after all.  

I knew there was a good reason to have an extra days holiday!

I Think this deserves a BOOM!

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Hi Guys and Girls, Just want to wish you all a Happy New Year from Ireland. I've been following this forum and others for years and you guys are responsible for my fascination for weather and I am totally hooked! I've even started checking in here at 4am to the bemusement of my other half. I have just set up my new Davis Vantage Vue and can't wait for some of the white stuff.

Here's a link to my station: https://www.weatherlink.com/embeddablePage/show/891b34795efd4b2a8e5f60fd87648b1d/wide

Anyway I know this is for model discussion only, I'm only learning but I have a good feeling the way things are going and looking at the GFS Para, I'm hoping the upgrades are on the way. 

I wish everyone the best of luck on the hunt for cold - hopefully there is enough for both the UK and Ireland to enjoy!

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a definite downgrade, it did undercut on the last run, its now odds on not to.

Do you think it will just push the block out of the way, when do we get a look at the extended UKMO?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Isnt that practically what I just said.

Apologies.. I got 2 posts mixed up!

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

TBH It will be more steady, a longer period of anti-cyclonic weather than predicted by the GFS with the Atlantic eventually breaking through but now stonking Easterly - ECM backtrack will be steady over the next few runs.

You predicted a stonking GFS run with colder uppers only 10 mins ago and that didn't happen.. Keep the predictions coming!

Personally I think we will find ourselves with a halfway house, not quite what GFS is showing but nothing as nice as ECM. 

[Model output discussion - heading into 2018]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

To me, the story of the eps in general is the return of the neg epo. Note the op at day 10 going into overdrive on that. 

What are the implications of this for our side of the world?

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Sorry but I have to say it, game over at 144 on both, look at the jet screaming over the north. As I say, I only look to 168. GEM going the same way. Nice one ECM, right again.

 

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

As I said last night - mid term mild for long term gain. Could be stonking NEasterly on this GFS run in FI. Look at the jet profile off Canada. No northern jet.

 

Totally confused by this!!! 

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

I'm not sure if this can act as a guide to anyone in the uk who is keeping an eye on the first weather front moving in from the Atlantic currently but it looks like the models even as recent as yesterday weren't very accurate with this. Firstly in terms of timing, it was showing the main area of precipitation heading for the East Coast of Ireland by 7pm tonight, it's still moving very slow across Ireland and it hasn't reached the East Coast/Irish Sea yet. Temps and DPs are also a degree or two lower than what was being shown yesterday meaning snow (albeit light) showing up in more areas.

I guess it shows that even in the reliable timeframe that models can struggle. Hopefully it means that areas that may not have been expecting anything might even get a sprinkling.

[Ireland Regional Weather Chat]

Hey guys.. could Dublin see any snow from this weather front tomorrow night or is it likely to be rain?

Even falling snow would be nice at this stage!

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Hi everyone, Long time viewer but rarely post. I love reading the comments from people here but have noticed that some people almost get pleasure posting when things don't work out for cold fans.. It can be a little off putting at times.

I am based outside Dublin in Ireland so it's rare we do well out of frontal snow or showers from the North and West. Give me a nice NE airflow, the Irish Sea can be a snow maker in the right set up.

Looking at the output today this looks unlikely but we live in hope. The uppers look good to give some snow to high ground further North and West so it's not all bad. Keep up the good work!

Off Topic but it was this time in 1982 that a front moved North over Ireland bumping into some very cold air and giving Ireland a snow event that went down in history.Keep the faith.