Lee Smith
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Posts posted by Lee Smith
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it looks like 1963 blocking type pattern to me is this real or not
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they dont happen to often
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1
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Disruption and displacement of the polar vortex in the right circumstances - the kind that the small thing of a slight easterly flow may develop if that displacement favours blocking on our side....................
do you rekon that this cold weather will carry on and on in to the new year
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I don't think this one will become close to reaching the criteria for a SSW. However, could it be classified as a Canadian Warming.....?
what are the implications of a canadian warming rather than a ssw
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I was looking today around 7th December for a forecast anomaly pattern to fit a precursor wave 1, however day 7 looks a bit more plausible, particularly if the next +AAM spike fits that timescale.
This is interesting as it teams up a possible wave 1 and wave 2 strike on the pv towards the end of the month.
stewart do you rekom this freeze will continue well in to january
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a long freeze then blue armyThe fi 30hpa charts getting better and better. Sberian vortex and nothing left over canada. Its becoming a trend and the last time deep fi gfs spotted a strat trend it was the vortex split which verified.
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two weeks possibly longer-welcome to net wx and could you put your nearest town in your avatar for everyone please-thanks
january is looking very cold to what do you rekon john
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many tks for that movie version PP very useful and hopefully will show one or two doubters just how long the block has been predicted to be around?
how long will it last
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is a split vortex better than a displacement guys
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Iin the extended range we have a nice signature for mean jet flow displaced well to the south allowing stable blocking structures to take root.
Spreads at day 14 show little variability on a flat trajectory around the Med.
GEFS H5 mean height anomaly depicting a retrogressive signal:
Note in the last one the anomaly over the Arctic showing good agreement on shifting of the core pv towards Siberian sector.
is that good news stewart that the polar vortex is going to siberia
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
does that mean the ecm has got this all wrong