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Lincs Observation

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Posts posted by Lincs Observation

    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     ANYWEATHER your absolutely correct we live in a maritime climate, and it’s right to say our weather is one of the most complicated in the northern hemisphere, however I still would argue that global weather patterns are becoming increasingly volatile which ultimately does effect even our small isle, I don’t think it’s a case of blaming anything, just an observation of how things have changed, the disturbing thing is its pace and downstream effects.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Good Morning all

    heres my two penneth on model outputs, some on here quite rightly in a normal situation referencing model outputs from years gone by as a guide to trying to work out potential outputs now, however I think now more than at any time in recent history this approach vary rarely give a viable conclusion. If you really think about it a model output in 2018 is never going to give viable clues now due to do many climate based changes for instance warming seas (slowing down of the Gulf Stream) erratic jet stream, rises in global temperatures due to global warming and other micro global phenomenon. 
    Im not convinced that these variables are factored into models because the conditions are to prone to wild swings in short time phases.

    We have seen many outputs interpreted in good faith by very knowledgeable individuals only to be undone in a relatively short time scale, the amount of times I even listen to experts from the Met saying they can’t pin down forecasts even two days away because the simply can’t predict a track of a system until the very last minute.

    My thoughts are that any references to models from the past simply can’t be used as a tool to predict global weather patterns now as we are in a completely different and volatile place and I don’t know now how it will be done but a different approach is needed. The saving grace I suppose will be data collected now in the most volatile part in our climate history will eventually filter into outputs but could take time.

    im no scientist just my thoughts for debate.

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looks like everyone can take a break and relax for the next week as me move into the transition, might do some of us some good to look away from the models before we go again in the lead up to the Christmas holidays.

    time to concentrate on Christmas shopping and pre Christmas work parties.

    This last period has been very interesting indeed and I suspect that the fun is far from over as we turn into the new year.

    back in a week to see what’s going on 

    👋

     

    • Like 9

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    BBC weather predicting warming up from the west/southwest this coming week pushing the cold air away from the UK.

    im not quite sure looking at the models this morning and posters comments that this entire wipe out of the cold from the uk is entirely right.

    less cold for a week or so before a gradual return of the cold is my take on things but hey im a plumber not a met expert 🥺

    • Like 2

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, LRD said:

    But even then we saw a cold pattern 1st half of Dec only last year. And what was being progged very rarely looked any better than 2022. So, for some to say that we haven't seen these model developments early in winter since 2010 was hype

    Had the same in March this year - a 3 day slushy/wet snow fest and we had predictions of the coldest March since God was a boy

    The question is I suppose is what is the norm in a maritime climate, in the 70’s & 80’s the view I suppose was the norm but since I’ve rarely seen a straightforward winter. Those who were around in the 50’s 60’s would say there winters were the norm, global warming and extreme global weather patterns have complicated things somewhat.

    So anything that happens in our day and age is not normal in my opinion and the chase is exciting for some trying to make sense of what is going on.

    you have to concede especially in this country particularly we have never had constant variables and as such no normal weather. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    Forgive me but isn’t a week of temperatures around 4-5c and just below freezing at night with a few wintry showers along the coast just bog standard weather for the uk? And yet on here it was like a mini ice age was coming a few days ago. I get we all want extremes with the weather and that but everytime there’s a glimmer of an easterly or northerly on here it’s bigged up like no tomorrow. Listen to the more knowledgeable on here and the pros and you won’t be disappointed.

    every year I almost go up the garden path but not this year lol. 
    enjoy the odd frost whist we have it I’m sure it won’t be long until the next ice age chase

    I don’t think at any stage it was suggested a mini ice age was coming, it was suggested a pattern of weather not seen in the Uk since 2010.

    Now I know that’s not come to fruition that’s true and some maybe guilty of over expecting that said you have to agree that the model patterns are different this winter and not seen for many years.

    You can’t blame people for been a little over excited in the current global climatical synopsis 👍

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    You know what I'm seriously thinking here folks.

    This could be the  Winter when all is said and done that the teleconnections scratch there heads and say what the bloody hell just happened here!

    I remember reading somewhere recently back in Summer from a climatological expert that there are so many variables coming into play right now that we are literally entering the unknown!

    The moral of this story is do not be that suprised if you wake up some days and see that NWP as completely changed its direction.

    The background drivers could well be overuled by overriding factors on occasion.

    Totally agree here, this has been an unusual year weather wise and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

    the El Niño is dealing out some quite dramatic weather globally that coupled with global warming is leading us into unknown territory.

    looking at historic trends is not going to give us a clue this year at all in my opinion in the current climate 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

    Not if the Azores high sets up its usual winter home, can be quite a stubborn pattern to shift.

    It’s still an IF

    at this point I’m resolute on not being pessimistic at this very early stage of winter. Still to many permutations in the offing and this has and remains no ordinary year climatically.

    i don’t see this winter been that straightforward.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Ecm op was somewhat of an outlier. Definitely  a trend to something less cold later but there does remain some spread. Time for things too change again as beyond a week is going some in these type of set ups.

    graphe0_00_257_69___.png

    I wonder if this is the end of this sequence and soon to follow after will be the start of the same scenario set. 
     

    I mentioned a few days ago I feel this could be a potential set and reset winter, it will be interesting to see once this phase is over. 
     

    nothing scientific in my thoughts other than the way this year has panned out so far and the feeling any milder weather will be the full stop on a phase of weather before returning to what we are currently in and repeated as we move forward over the winter.

    like I say just a big big hunch 😁

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Lincs Observation

    Morning all

    lots of snow charts been posted this morning, the one thing I have learned over the years on this forum is not to take them literally. 
     

    snow forecast charts are extremely ambiguous and areas to see snow are notoriously difficult to pin down almost to the day, too many variables come into play on a snow event.

    so my advice is look by all means but take with a pinch of salt, that way if you don’t get any your not disappointed or if your lucky you will no doubt be pleasantly surprised.

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all

    in my opinion we do need a bit of perspective here, this is the first cold shot of the winter so early doors, and I feel this pattern in the current climate could repeat a few times over the next 16 weeks or so been more solid as we move forward. Also we really do need to get the cold in bedded over the next few weeks to increase snow chances further down the line.

    so I would no be too despondent at this early start we have good signs people keep the faith and play the long game 👍

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Lincs Observation

    16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    Here it is again gang..being picked out by the EC weeklies...quite the hit towards the Canadian sector...and unless I'm very much mistaken a major warming over Canada would benefit our part of the world and Europe more so than North America! This could be interesting,especially as its so early.

    OK I'm a tad excited...this happens every year when I'm about to turn on the Xmas lights...its like I'm a big bloody kid again. 🤣

    Screenshot_20231121_202710_X.jpg

    I am beginning to wonder and in light of the weird weather this year whether we are seeing the seeds of a set and reset pattern trend for the winter months ahead.

     

    • Like 4
    • Insightful 1
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