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RUSH

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    Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Been looking through historical charts on wetterzentrale and you are really are hard pushed trying to find hard winters in the UK, there almost none existant search.gif.

    1963,1947 and 1895 being really the only ones in the last 140 years. So where talking like 1 great winter every 50 years, I think a lot of people's expectations in here are a little OTT in what they want to see in the charts!

    Although we are hard pushed in finding the perfect winter synoptics for the whole season, we are still able to get the odd rare ''super cold spell' that I've noticed usually come inside a very poor winter or can happen at any stage of the winter.

    So when I hear winters over posts this early or where soooo unlucky I just find it funny smile.png The next big thing could be just around the corner and we wouldn't be any the wiser as there's usually little warning and no obvious signs to suggest what's coming. To me the weather really does what it wants and the amount of things going on at once meteorologically, I think even our best computers are still miles off predicting what our weather will show past two weeks as the butterfly effect across our small island that is the UK is really emphasized.

    Look at where we are now compared to the great winter of 1894/95

    Rrea00118941216.gif

    Rrea00218941216.gif

    (Current charts)

    Rtavn061.png

    Rtavn062.png

    Not a lot of difference to be honest. And let's face it there's been a fair few people rate our current output as dire.

    The winter of 1895 all kicked off from a simple retrogressing high towards greenland and a resulting northerly (just like the models are hinting at at long range ; ) get me gist blum.gif)

    Rrea00118941230.gif

    The rest was history:

    Rrea00118950131.gif

    Rrea00118950207.gif

    Rrea00218950207.gif

    I think we should forget about this phantom easterly and hoping for little westward movements every run, the chances of anything noteworthy are futile and like nick sussex said earlier, the longer this none event hangs around the longer it will take for anything more substantial to develop. I want the high to retreat back back east and let's see if we can get some retrogression towards/after christmas, a northerly shown on the ECM in it's latter stages would be most welcome and COULD be the preluder to something BIG!

    And what do you know, the last big winter came exactly 50 years ago whistling.gif

    very well put

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