Summer Sun

GFS is following on from the 06z run in bringing in milder weather by mid next week, UKMO isn't having it though and keeps us in the colder air, A forecasters nightmare for sure However UKMO is colder and more blocked

Sorry but whats a shortwave?

Dry mid & south More unsettled north Issued: 0530hrs Wednesday 9th January 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Drier through central and southern areas, but wetter and colder in north Wednesday Cloud and outbreaks of rain across Portugal and northern Spain today. Brighter with some sunshine over eastern and southern areas. There could be some morning fog to contend with through France but then dry with sunny spells. More cloud and some rain affecting northern France and the north of Germany. This rain spreading through Denmark and into the south of Norway and Sweden. Some snow showers across the Baltic States and Finland. Cloud and drizzle in Poland. Further cloud and some drizzle for Switzerland and the south of Germany as well as Austria. Dry with good spells of sunshine once morning fog clears from Italy. Fair through Greece with more sunshine here. Snow showers in northern Turkey but fine and sunny to the south. Thursday A fair day through Portugal and Spain. Plenty of sunshine here and dry too. Cool with a few showers for the Balearics. heavier showers across Italy, some merging to longer spells of rain. Mainly dry for Greece with some sunny spells here. Dry too for Turkey with good spells of sunshine, but cloudier to the north. Cloud and some showers or rain in western France, but dry to the east with sunny spells. More sunshine to come across western Germany, although wintry showers will be affecting the east. More persistent sleet and snow for Poland. Cold for Norway but dry with sunny spells. Some scattered snow showers in Denmark with sunny spells here. Breezy and cold in Sweden with a few snow showers on eastern coasts. Snow and strong winds in the Baltic States, and breezy and cold in Finland. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

Wall to wall sunshine no wind A relatively mild 7.6°C A high of 7.9°C between 13:58 and 14:08

All of Britain should prepare for snow this weekend warns Met Office as towns and cities are shrouded in mist Parts of Britain were shrouded in thick blankets of fog this morning as temperatures began to plunge - with forecasters warning all parts of the UK could see snow from this weekend. The north west of England was most severely hit by the fog, which provided hazardous driving conditions for motorists heading to work. These stunning pictures show the town of Mossley, near Manchester, completely covered by the thick mist. It comes as forecasters have predicted temperatures could plunge to -15C in some parts of the country next week. Dan Williams, a spokesman for the Met Office, said all parts of the UK could be affected by snow from Saturday. He said: 'It would be fair to say that nobody should be surprised to see sleet or snow over the weekend and into the next week. 'We have got warm air trying to push in from the west and colder air pushing from the east and north east and there is a bit of a war into which will gain supremacy over the UK. 'With that combination there is the possibility that we could see some snow across any part of the country on Saturday and Sunday. 'I think eastern areas will see sleet and snow at times over the weekend and it will certainly be colder across most places.' Chris Fawkes, a broadcast meteorologist, has also predicted snow for parts of the country. He tweeted saying: 'Still uncertainty in forecast detail but it is quite possible for parts of UK to get snow Sunday and early next week.' The UK has been enjoying unseasonably mild - if wet - weather since the New Year but the Met Office said temperatures in 2013 are due drop significantly to as low as -5C. http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2HU8Pd7ni

click this link http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess= then on the drop down bar next to select chart type click UK precipitation type then click Animate Note 06z is running now so it will be best to run them through in around 45 minutes

Potentially very cold Sleet and snow http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130109

Surprise Surprise... Global warming has stalled, admits Met Office THE great global warming debate was blown wide open again yesterday when the Met Office predicted cooler than expected temperatures for the next five years. The Met Office, one of the top cheerleaders for the man-made climate change camp, said global temperatures are likely to be lower than it forecast in December 2011. It blamed this on the “natural variability of the climate systemâ€, notably changes in ocean surface temperatures. But the admission was branded as embarrassing as the notorious Barbecue Summer forecast in 2009 which led to a washout where the smell of charcoal grills was largely absent from British gardens. Thirteen months ago the Met Office predicted that temperatures for 2012-16 would be 0.54C above average. But now, after using a new experimental computer model, it predicted that in 2013?17 temperatures will be 0.43 above average. This contrasts with the ­hottest year on record, 1998, which was 0.4C above the long?term average. Climate sceptics hailed this as proof that global warming has stopped. David ­Whitehouse, of Lord Lawson’s Global Warming Policy Foundation, said: “If the latest Met Office prediction is correct, it will prove to be a lesson in humility. “It will show that the previous predictions given so confidently as advice to the UK Government and so unquestioningly accepted by the media were wrong and that the so?called sceptics who were derided for questioning them were on the right track.†His colleague Dr Benny Peiser said: “These figures show that in all likelihood we will have had no warming in the past 20 years. “That is almost as embarrassing as the Met Office’s ­Barbecue Summer forecast. “This suggests that the Government’s climate change policies, including wind farms, are a waste of money and based on dodgy advice. Why should we trust Met Office forecasts about the climate for 2050 or 2100 if they get it wrong for the next decade?†http://beta.dailyexp...mits-Met-Office Red sky in morning a weather warning... THIS red sky in the morning came with a clear warning yesterday. Despite its stunning beauty, it was the harbinger of yet more rain sweeping in from the West. But for a few moments the palette of red, orange, yellow and gold brought a dash of welcome colour to an otherwise grey winter’s morning in Bristol, lifting the gloom of commuters battling the post-Christmas blues on their way back to work. And though the silhouetted branches of the trees were lifeless and bare, the scene provided hope of sunnier days to come. Later this week a cold snap is expected, so we may well see red skies at night – and the drier weather, we all know, is a shepherd’s delight... http://beta.dailyexpress.co.uk/news/uk/369561/Red-sky-in-morning-a-weather-warning

The BBC's longer range forecast is now on board with light snow forecast for Sunday in Darlington http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651513?day=4 Click on Further ahead

The BBC's longer range forecast is now on board with light snow forecast for Sunday in Darlington http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651513?day=4 I still advice caution but things are slowly clicking into place Matt Hugo's tweets tonight 12Z EC ENS now on board. EC clusters definitely more grouped around the blocking pattern. Hence EC ENS support the UKMO, GFS, ECM Det models We're getting there but another 12 or 24hrs of model runs for me. Still, some of the 12z EC clusters are mouthwatering! Your telling me there is actually support for the Det???†Yes, EC Det fits almost right down the middle of the ensembles. The GFS ensembles are also in high agreement of a significant cold spell from the 13th to 16th with nearly all members at -10 beyond that as you would would expect there's a fair amount of scatter

They have today

Australia's all-time record temperature is 50.7C, set in January 1960 at Oodnadatta in the state of South Australia. Next week temperatures could hit 54c 129.2f somewhere in the central area The nation as a whole experienced its hottest day on record on Monday with the average maximum temperature across the country hitting 40.33C, surpassing the previous mark of 40.17C set in 1972. The central part of Australia is expected to see temperatures soar above 50c 122f on Monday

A fairly intense area of snow for parts of central England and wales on Saturday

UKMO is looking good peeps

Get the snow shovels out and prepare for chaos on the roads and Airports!!

Some interesting charts from 1990 From this To this in 4 days (8th December)

Indeed quite often bitter cold weather can deliver cold sunny days away from any fog patches (tomorrow will be a perfect example of this away from the south), the best chances of nation wide heavy snow comes from the west with battle ground scenarios, northerlies and easterlies quite often fail to deliver nation wide

One more possible rise tomorrow for todays temperatures before a decline from Thursday

06z ensembles A few more mild members there compared to yesterday

Cloudy and mild 10.7°C a high so far of 11.3°C

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2013 to Wednesday 6 Feb 2013: There is greater than average uncertainty through this period, with no strong signal for any one weather type to dominate. However, on balance colder, drier conditions are more favoured rather than the milder, wetter weather experienced so far this winter. Updated: 1139 on Tue 8 Jan 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

THREE WEEK FREEZE READY TO HIT BRITAIN BRITAIN is poised to slip into the grip of a potentially deadly three-week freeze. Temperatures will plunge to -15C in parts of the north, and the Arctic temperatures are expected to last well into February. Showers will turn to snow and sleet from Saturday as the chilly blast slams into the UK. Parts of the Midlands and the east will be worst hit as the first flurries of the new year sweep in from Scandinavia. Weather Channel forecaster Leon Brown said: “The weather pattern will take a dramatic change from the weekend. “Much colder weather will arrive from the north-east. From later next week, we expect nights to fall as low as -15C.†http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/291777/Three-week-freeze-ready-to-hit-Britain/

A strong block to the north here Which leads to this Interesting times ahead, either GFS is leading us down the garden path or other models will follow suite Snowfall charts for 3 to 6 days upto and including Monday 14th

Rain to north Dry mid and south Issued: 0530hrs Tuesday 8th January 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Unsettled to the north, but drier central and southern areas Tuesday An area of rain will lie from southern parts of Sweden across Denmark into Holland, Belgium into the far north of France into northern Spain and Portugal. Some rain too for eastern parts of Germany. Cold with snow across parts of Norway while an area of heavy snow is forecast for Finland, northern Russia and the Baltic States. Mostly cloudy across Poland with some patchy sleet. Snow is expected across the Czech Republic and Hungary. Dry from southern Russia across the Ukraine, Belarus, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Further falls of heavy snow are expected across Turkey with plenty of heavy showers from Sicily eastward to Crete. Fine, dry and sunny across Italy today and across Sardinia, Corsica and the Balearics. Gales will persist south of Turkey. Wednesday Cloud and outbreaks of rain across Portugal and northern Spain today. Brighter with some sunshine over eastern and southern areas. There could be some morning fog to contend with through France but then dry with sunny spells. More cloud and some rain affecting northern France and the north of Germany. This rain spreading through Denmark and into the south of Norway and Sweden. Some snow showers across the Baltic States and Finland. Cloud and drizzle in Poland. Further cloud and some drizzle for Switzerland and the south of Germany as well as Austria. Dry with good spells of sunshine once morning fog clears from Italy. Fair through Greece with more sunshine here. Snow showers in northern Turkey but fine and sunny to the south. http://www.weatheron...EuropeanSummary

Well the chances of seeing a freeze are slim now the media are running all sorts of stories today Arctic freeze blasts back...and it will last for weeks WINTER will roar in with a vengeance this week with a savage Arctic freeze likely to last until the middle of next month. Temperatures will plummet by more than 20C as Britain is plunged into weeks of shivering misery, forecasters warned. The UK faces the coldest and iciest spell of winter so far as another “Beast from the East†roars in from Russia and the Arctic, they said. It could be the middle of February before any break from harsh frosts, ice and temperatures as low as -20C. An unusually mild Christmas saw the mercury rise into double figures with the coming Arctic blast set to deliver a “real shock to the systemâ€. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said Britain is braced for “winter to properly bare its teethâ€. He said: “This is really going to be the first proper taste of winter with no sign of the cold retreating until after mid-February. “We are going to see a significant drop in temperatures from the middle of the week as a blast of freezing air arrives from Russia and the East. “The whole country is in for a big freeze with -20C likely in the North and temperatures falling to below zero across the UK.†He said bitter gales will whip up blizzards in Scotland and the North, while ice will be a problem across much of the UK. “It will be cold enough for roads to freeze over, turning them into deadly sheets of ice, a real shock to the system,†he added. The Met Office said that much of the UK will see rain this week with showers turning wintry as temperatures fall by the weekend with the potential for the coldest spell so far. Forecaster Charlie Powell said: “It will be a bit of a shock after the milder weather we have seen and things are going to feel very different.†Although the North will see the lowest temperatures, with snow expected on high ground, the entire country is braced for freezing temperatures and showers. The Weather Channel warned temperatures could sink to 4C below the average of 3C for the time of year with snow likely before the end of January. http://beta.dailyexp...-last-for-weeks Three-week freeze to cover the UK with temps as low as -15°C A WINTRY freeze is poised to grip the UK from tonight — for three weeks. Shivering Brits will wake up to frosts — with weathermen warning January will see temperatures plunge to -15°C (5°F). Today will see an end to the mild New Year in the Midlands and South — as icy rain raises the spectre of fresh floods. Snow is set to hit the North next week. Experts at the Weather Channel expect the big chill to last into February — with temperatures four degrees colder than normal. Forecaster Leon Brown said: “Places, particularly in the East and South, will struggle to get above zero. “From later next week, we expect nights to fall as low as -15°C in northern England.†The Met Office’s Helen Chivers confirmed the nation should brace itself — with nights averaging -4°C in the weeks ahead. She said: “Everyone will notice this week’s temperatures will be lower with north-east winds bringing colder weather next week. “Sleet and snow is expected over northern and eastern areas next week.†http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz2HNPKRzkh Warm start to year brings snowdrops out weeks early... but don't get too used to it because it’ll be -15C next week The mild weather that has heralded the beginning of 2012 will be replaced with freezing temperatures, sleet and even snow - and it could last three weeks. Met Office forecasters say the temperature could plunge to -15C in parts of the north next week as part of a cold weather snap likely to last until early February. A forecaster said: 'It does look like it's going to get colder. There's the scenario where we will get winds coming in from the North East that will cause colder weather. Usually that means we'll see see snow flurries as well. 'There are many uncertainties, but there is also the chance that high pressure will push north from the Azores and it will get colder.' She added winter showers are likely next week. The beginning of January's milder weather meant blossom has started to bloom two months early, thanks to temperatures hovering around 10C. But temperatures are set to plunge below freezing this week with a day of clear skies and sunshine followed by widespread frost overnight into Thursday. After a miserable 2012 - the second wettest on record - the prospect of a dry start to 2013 was welcome. But it seems the mild weather was just a blip, with a return to cold, wet, grey days in the week ahead. There will certainly be nothing compared with the grim winter of 50 years ago. In early 1963, the Thames froze, 6ft snowdrifts blocked London streets - and food prices soared. http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2HNQMCmU2