Chris K

South Westerly set ups are boring me. Always peters out when it reaches Bristol. Not looking good for here on the weekend either for any exciting stuff... Anyway that is some intense rain on radar on the south coast. I am too surprised no warning has been given by the Met office, not even an advisory?

Bring on the Thursday washout.

Plenty of time to change, but the GFS cape/Li chart has reverted back to only a kent clipper being a possibility. With any chance of seeing something electrical where I live being wiped out completely. One chart doesn't give the whole picture, but I think i'm going to give up expecting anything here and just see how it plays out on the day.

Amazing cape values. Here's hoping it shifts west a little bit as the time gets nearer, but I doubt it! I keep getting teased by being on the 'edge' of the good stuff and nothing ever comes of it. I guess theres still some decent cape over me on that particular chart model..I'm just on the edge of the yellow. Considering though at the moment the cold front forecasted by the MetO would of already passed my area by Sunday lunchtime, I'm not getting my hopes up yet. Still time for it to change, for better..or for worse

Latest GFS shows that high cape reaching in a little further west along the south coast on Sunday evening. At the moment i'm just on the edge. Come on...a little further west....no running back to France please... I think this could be a Kent affair but how exciting to see what happens as we get closer.

Come on mother nature just throw it over the whole of southern england including the SW and i'll make you my own personal shrine...

The potential might happen, but as others have said its a little too early to tell I'm afraid. Still over 5 days and a lot can change.

GFS is also showing spillage of the very high cape from the continent for the southeast corner on Sunday afternoon/night! Could be very interesting for you guys down there. Worth keeping an eye on maybe?

It does seem to show a southerly wind coming up from the continent then, but more so on the Weds/Thurs. Whether this means we're in for a spanish plume and potential thundery activity, I'll leave it to the experts to forecast as the time gets nearer. It will probably change a fair bit by next week. Im not that optimisitic for my area to be honest, as it has shifted more N/NE each time so far this year. I'll be keeping my eye on those charts over the coming days thats for sure..just in case

The cape/li levels look amazing across France on the GFS later in the week. If only it managed to spilled across the UK

One day, a circle of storms will hover above Bristol/Gloucestershire with loads of lightning all night long and no one else will steal it. heh heh heh.... A man can dream right? :happy: Out of interest I cant remember what year it was, think it was about 3 years ago maybe? This area had that amazing storm that lasted for hours on end with loads of lightning. Think it was across a lot of S England actually but not sure. But anyway, if anyone knows - what set up caused this? Was it a Spanish Plume?

Currently having a heavy-ish shower. But to be honest i'm not expecting anything else today. We were in moderate risk yesterday and pretty much got bugger all. So the fact i'm in slight risk today means it definately won't happen.

Well, what started off as a potentially great thundery day up the Bristol Channel, turned into nothing but the odd downpour, a couple of distant rumbles and then drizzle. Thoroughly disappointing as this has been pretty much the only day i've had this year with the best potential. I need to stop expecting so much! <_< Whenever something more intense travelled anywhere North of Bristol or along the Severn Estuary, it just petered out into nothing so quickly. However I did hear some places such as near coventry still got some thing from cells that developed. Anyway, I hope the next few weeks gives some further potential before summer ends. Would love to see some sort of light show before we go into the cooling off and the less interesting autumnal weather. All we need is mother nature to do her thing and slap a spanish plume on us with the right set up for big imported thunderstorms

Why can't I just get 1 storm!! I need a whining thread for me to kick off in. I'm off for two weeks after this week. I hope something crops up! Hope to see some pics of tonight's events if it is good!!

Before I head off, is that another surface centre low developing in the channel now? It looks cool! I so envy you guys in the south east tonight. Good luck hope you get to see a light show already lightning detected on south coast. Im going to be stuck in the main centre low for a while so doubt anything else will happen tonight.

The rain developing in the Channel is growing fast! Cant believe i'm missing out again!!! I give up i'm off to the pub in this pathetic rain!! Enjoy the storms if you get anything guys!

The clouds have suddenly slowed down so much theyre hardly moving now its weird! Really dark (although sunset is approaching) and raining. Showers breaking out around Plymouth and curling around the centre of the low pressure but not sure if theres much chance of it reaching here. The rain south of Portsmouth/Isle of Wight looks interesting!

Yea think i'm giving up here...bits and bobs of rain everywhere but a nice circle of clear weather heading my way with showers behind from the trough. But these showers look like they are going to head east along the south coast and not reach me. Mother nature is such a tease! Im just going to have to wait to see if late august brings anything.A bit frustrating when theres been distant thunder in a circle around me but nothing actually above me!! Good luck to people along South coast/ SE. Things look like they may develop there as the surface low travels across? You can see if Skywarn was right

Im up the pub later for a pint. Its on the edge of a hill overlooking the Severn Estuary where the Severn Crossings are. If something did surprise us that would be a nice show for me! Fingers crossed that some stuff wraps around the surface low centre before heading off to the SE. Clouds seem to weaken as they approach me, then get darker as they head off to the NE haha!

Just as I was about to give up, a couple rumbles of thunder to my SE. Dammit so close yet so far. Does anyone know if there really is any potential for the Bristol area anymore this evening? Still seems to be a lump of rain heading towards Bristol from the SW, with a clump of showers already setting in towards Cornwall.

Is it me or has the rain over Devon heading NE suddenly started deciding to lose intensity on radar? I think I may write today off for myself and just go up the pub I can still see towering clouds to my North but it just looks grey and dull to my south. Anything interesting seems to be heading towards the Channel now. Good luck to the rest of you though it could turn out interesting on the South coast later? If anything does decide to show itself up here I'll be pleasantly surprised.

I can see how it could develop along the South Coast, but im losing any hope of it managing to reach far north enough if it did happen. Will just have to see what happens! Getting darker and darker above me now think we're about to get a heavy downpour.

Dark clouds approaching fast from my S/SW. radar picking up heavy rainfall heading along the Severn Estuary. Think ive heard very distant rumbles but nothing definate yet.

Cool and overcast/grey gloud lingering about. Clouds seemed to have 'flattened'. Think ive missed out again on anything interesting bar a few rumbles of thunder. With nothing predicted in the near future either it doesnt look good.. The only hope I have left of seeing anything is if something swings round to us when the surface low passes by along the channel. Doesnt look like it though. Congrats to people who made it out of the NSC haha. At least ive managed to hear those 5 distant rumbles of thunder this year ey?

I have a feeling its going to stay to the South of us as it travels along the Channel Hopefully we'll get something more than distant rumbles... Looking good for South/SE coast maybe later though?