thundercrazy
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Posts posted by thundercrazy
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Tbh, I think the best the majority of Kent can hope for at the moment is a good light show from the MCS moving into C.N.France but there is an area of cloud just to the west of Brest that could develop into something a little interesting for C.S.England and the S.E. in a few hours time.
http://www.meteox.co...&soort=satradar
Regards,
Tom.
And i was just about to throw in the towel and go to bed.
Not convinced this will develop into what we would all like but interesting all the same.
My only concern is the current mcs sucking up all the energy?
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I don't think it's changing direction at all… I think the closest the French stuff will come is mid Channel. The MetO haven't updated their yellow warnings to orange as one might expect if the storms are a few hours away.
Yes i thought the mcs had started a more northerly track but i think this was just the system building on its western flank,
looks to be being pulled and pushed east quicker than ever.
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Does it look to a trained eye that cells are developing slightly ahead of that area over Brest....? ( NW radar )
cheers,
Steve.
I thought that, it also appears the movement has a slightly more northerly track than earlier.
Fingers crossed some more cells fire up
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I think i will give it until midnight and then go to bed, unless things start to evolve.
If nothing else develops this will probably just pass through kent, good luck to you all there.
Be just my luck i will go to bed and something will pop up LOL :lol:
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Yea good night from mid Hampshire too! Hope to be woke in 3 or 4 hours with a lot of banging and flashing lol
Shall i inform the police?
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i'm going to have a look in my tea-cup to see if theres a storm in it...
Lol, i think you have more chance.
I cant get over how humid it still is, had to open a can of beer to ease the heat
well thats my excuse!
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Strange Cloud formations appearing in the darkening sky, anyone around Portsmouth can see these too?
Yeah i saw those earlier, just the edge of the cold front moving over.
To be honest though i'm not sure we will see much unless the stuff in the bay of biscay decides to develop out more to the west.
Kent may well have a light show in the early hours.
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Watching the sat loop suggests AT BEST a touch on the kent coast.
Watching the overall trend I would say it's a french night tonight.
Sadly i have to admit it looks that way, bloody French clinging on to all the fun again
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BBC now forecasting thunderstorm for tomorrow in my area despite no Cape and high Li values!
I really must log off now damnit!
As long as the c**p from the mcs does'nt hamper things
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Are you playing Bridge?
Lol, you lot do make me laugh, the humour on here is fab.
This is going to be a late one, i doubt i shall be over productive at work tomorrow
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Glad to see some members reporting storms, it does look as if things are kicking off more now.
Good luck to you all
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Im a complete novice but have some big cells popped up over bay of biscay? Exploading into life and on a N/NE track? Could be of interest. But then again im a complete beginner!
Thoughts anyone
This is what i was hinting at earlier but i'm not sure exactly where these will track, there is a good chance they may also end up getting dragged too far west.
Edit East!!!
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do you think these will catch us
?At the moment i think Nelson has more chance of getting his arm back but you never know.
In fact i may have made a good point there, looking at what Spain has got and what was forecast, maybe we are giving up too early
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Crikey look at the development over northern Spain :blink:
And to think Estofex only gave this area a 50% chance of lightning within 40km of a point and us a level 1
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All I see in the Bay of Biscay is thundery showers moving NE but are all the way off the SW coast of France by the Spanish border, where abouts in the Bay of Biscay are you seeing this formation?
Looking out to the west of the bay there is a band of cloud and it is in this band a cell is forming, this may well end up hitting the south coast later.
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Why don't you think this will happen? I am still extremely confident of things for the South Eastern quarter.
On the latest pic's on sat24 there is definately something forming in that band of cloud out to the west in the bay of biscay.
Dont all give up yet.
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Is it just me or are there signs of something interesting appearing in the Bay of Biscay amongst the cloud out to the west?
Small imbedded cells forming?
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Looks like the cap has finally given out over in France, explosive cells firing up.
Sadly these ones wont affect the uk.
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Blimey those charts being churned out for tomorrow look like a sweet shop!
Surely this must result in a massive BANG!!
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Indeed - word of warning I'm in no way experienced enough for anyone to take my 'forecasts' seriously...I just think there's quite a few assumptions being made re the weakening of the CF prior to re-organising and strengthening. Given the moisture, heat etc I don't think it would take much of a feature to destabilise the atmosphere.
There also still needs a lot of finalising done between the models re storm frequency, MCS/No MCS, positioning of the frontal system, initiation over La France etc.
I would hope there'll be more wide reaching thundery breakdown than is currently being progged atm. I also think UKASF forecast is reliant too much on 12z GFS given the zone given to the Severe marker...I am waiting impatiently for the 18z...and, not wishing to jinx anything, expecting the zone of high CAPE/LI to extend a bit further west.
Totally agree with this Harry, looking at the area over portugal and spain at the moment, current timing of the approaching cold front, steering winds and forecast day time tempreatures etc.
I would expect thunderstorms to form over a wide area stretching maybe as far west as devon?
Will again be a radar watching exercise.
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Some nice shadows being cast across Spain by the high topped CBs currently.
I'm loving the look of the development on that lot.
I really think a large swathe of the south of england will be in for a treat tommorow evening, i also would not be suprised to see storms breaking out a lot further west than many are expecting, the cold front looks as thouhgh it may come through later than previous forecasts.
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Maybe they haven't done tomorrows yet, because we are really all in for a big treat of a light show, but they dont want to tell us and keep it a surprise?
Probably because they cant belive we will actually get a decent storm this year, going on previous performance!
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Don't worry.
These guys write their PhD's on the back of what's published - they just want to be correct. No problem, there. A forecast will come out, and, personally, I would go for a Level 3 surrounding by Level 2, surrounded by Level 1.
I suspect they're procrastinating on location rather than activity, as well as resolving observed vs model data.
A level 3, oh my lord we can but hope!!
I'm down in the Portsmouth area so at least expecting decent light show.
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Hello all, have been lurking on here for the last couple of years, given the possible event coming up i decided to at last get in on the action!
Firstly thanks to all of you for your posts, has made great reading and an excellentt source of info.
Very excited about the next couple of days potential, has anyone noticed the recent explosion of storms over Portugal and northern Spain, this must be a good sign for tommorow?
As for Estofex i have viewed the forecasts from them every day for as long as i can remember and i have NEVER seen them skip a day like that, i guess there must be an awful lot of head scratching going on?
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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Cells now exploding over Northern Spain on latest sat24 image, pretty confident we will see something good from this