Suburban Streamer
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Posts posted by Suburban Streamer
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i was born in an easterly and -10c upper air.
A novelty that still hasn't worn off 36 years later!
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Decent ozone anoms, particularly over the North Pacific & North Altantic.
Tropical strat temps still a little high, no way near the temps we saw last Autumn, though the wqbo is likely showing its hand here to at least some degree...?
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Snow tomorrow dependant on timing. midday fax is promising, if we can get it into east anglia/home counties towards sunset, then game on. Also later in the night another band likely. Timing key or it'll be sleety
shame it gets milder on friday, but still some snow falling without needing the lamp post would be pretty marvellous to see
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Tomorrow night showers very hard to pin down. Currently two main shower tracks appearing on models highlighted here
From twitter...
So I guess it's game over then for February too?
Yeah i did that one very quickly. Just to highlight the potential further south more than anything. Of course nowcast all the way
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tomorrow night will come down to luck of the draw with shower tracks, but away from coasts and lowest ground, some snow falling looks a decent shout.
Then late weekend into next week is all to play for, no need for any doom and gloom, as we enter a period that brings the biggest chances of snow so far this winter.
Here's my map for tomorrow night, but of course it'll be a nowcast thing, fingers crossed and best of luck to all
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hi everyone, my winter forecast is available here (too long so i wont copy the whole thing into here)
fingers crossed for some decent wintry spells
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thanks Ed, more a gentle hike than stroll
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Sylvain has just confirmed to me on twitter that the new gfs will be running in parallel from some point in the next two weeks
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worth monitoring the PDO in this respect. No super el nino has occured within cold phase of the PDO. However we have gone weakly positive so far this year, if that continues, it could increase confidence somewhat i guess.
Personally, i wont be convinced that we will see el nino at all until i see more downwelling kelvin waves (like the current monster). Until then i'm on the fence regarding ENSO. The writing does appear to be on the wall, but we have seen this in the past come to nothing
despite the relative enso hype earlier in the year, caution was indeed correct. Going to be interesting to see how this one develops
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This game is genius
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Blanket of thick Cloud... we need surface heating, nought sunshine. After suck a promising outlook
:wallbash: the cloud is breaking in the Irish Sea blinking typical why not over Land! It is too late, maybe Friday will be more considerate. We only have a short window, where the sun has a effect.East anglia and north up the east coast looks fairly promising tomorrow in terms of instability, and none of that convective inhibition we have seen today. my chances in north london dont look as good but fingers crossed as always
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far too cloudy to trigger any storms unfortunately. at least its stopped raining with just a few showers remaining
Weekend looks horrid
i put together a little forecast for the weekend http://tinyurl.com/forecast-weekendHP mid-end next week? yes please!
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Is there thunder about? It seems as though it could be a tad stormy here at the moment. Very still and with that 'feeling' in the air and that particular 'look' in the sky. Umm! If you know what I mean......... :o
theres a chance, but south coast is favoured.
i think for you and i, best chance for storms looks like Thursday. Hope so
PS i know exactly what u mean! i think its just teasing us
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Winter isn't OVER just yet - Britain braced for two week ARCTIC BLAST due the bank holiday
LOL at two weeks, more like 3 days.
Here's my bank hol forecast. (Perhaps a touch premature). Ignoring details, at least the general theme of dry with temps recovering looks decent enough
High pressure looks likely to topple pretty quick by monday, but after a relatively unsettled 1st week of May, i have recently been looking at some signals that suggest high pressure in our vicinity. These signals being a very strong spike in tendency relative angular momentum as a result of a strong global mountain torque. This idea is gaining credence somewhat with decent agreement on MJO phase 1 and NWP does seem to now be toying with this idea, albeit in FI.
Fingers crossed hey
Great pics back there Tams
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hi all totally agree about the cold - i'm quite a hardened snow lover but also a keen gardener so all im interested in now is when can i put the veg out!
Some interest tomorrow with nmm modelling some decent CAPE / LI values for inland parts of East anglia/SE eng and e mids friday afternoon. Lets see if we can get lucky
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This is an interesting article. Read something about this last year.
Teleconnections in noctilucent clouds:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/16apr_teleconnections/
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now cue the easterly bursts and the LA nina predictions
Tongue in cheek of course, but i stay firmly on the fence with this enso hype!
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I think folk might need to consider what impact a 'major Nino' (Super?) could have on summer Arctic Sea ice levels and the knock on such losses could have upon northern hemisphere circulation patterns via an impacted Jet?
If the 07' extent/area drop did indeed impact jet patterns and leave us blighted with a summer jet trough then the similar drop in 2012 may well have augmented that pattern for the 2013 summer jet pattern with the frequency shifted half a cycle (putting Europe under the trough and us closer to a ridge).
The Nino of 2010 was short lived but potent and coincided with the largest volume drop so far recorded. With ice levels so low ( leaving thin ice across the Basin) any further Nino induced volume crash will impact area/extent levels. A 'full Nino' would have some impact on 2014's losses but more on 2015's summer melt. A warm nino winter in 14/15 will hinder thickening of the ice and leave it more vulnerable to the 2015 full nino summer.
Extra open water across the Basin means extra heat harvested instead of safely bounced back into space by ice/snow.
If you are not sold on the 'more open water = shallower temp/pressure gradient between pole an equator' then no worries. If you believe that there must be some impacts then it might be useful to bare the Arctic in mind when thinking of impacts here in the UK from a Nino?
The other thing folk might consider is the spacings between 'super Ninos'. Latest research makes the case that warming oceans mean a reduction in the 20 year spacing between Supers. With the past 2 'Supers' being only 15 years apart are we seeing this process in action? 16 years since the last Super so are we now due an event similar to 97/98'?
worth monitoring the PDO in this respect. No super el nino has occured within cold phase of the PDO. However we have gone weakly positive so far this year, if that continues, it could increase confidence somewhat i guess.
Personally, i wont be convinced that we will see el nino at all until i see more downwelling kelvin waves (like the current monster). Until then i'm on the fence regarding ENSO. The writing does appear to be on the wall, but we have seen this in the past come to nothing
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this is an interesting read. Not a term i recall coming across before, but apologies if its already been posted
Mechanisms for the Holton-Tan relationship and its decadal variation:Long link but it does work!-
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Just wondering about prospects for next winter - given this year has not delivered any strat warming.. doesn't a warming normally occur every two years. The more I think about this year the more I think it has been a major anomaly - a entity of itself probability says unlikely to happen for a long time to come and therefore to be discarded,
doesnt quite work like that but only 3 SSW's in 30 years worth of WQBO winters is telling! Not that this winter was entirely devoid of any strat warmings. There was wave activity and warming a plenty but not quite official SSW status and with the PV consolidating quickly soon after.
Winter 2014/15 looks like being EQBO which will help avoid the development of such a strong PV and likely to be el nino which is known to create warmer polar strat conditions. SSW's more common in EQBO winters, as with both enso phases.
So a more promising outlook for next winter, though how the uk will fair, is of course anyones guess at this stage.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/37CDPW/37cdpw-abutler.pdf
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Looks like the last night of winter is going to be the coldest we have seen,
My location is expected to dip to -1.4c, beating my previous minimum of -1c and my local weather stations minimum of -1.3c.
Winter is going out with a bang, a little cold one
i was under the impression temps would dip close to freezing inland (1 or 2c) and a little higher towards east/se coasts where cloud lingers (3 or 4c)
Further west, where clouds clear, looks like it could dip below freezing
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I was reading through a paper on solar forcing and came across this paragraph about polar vortex condition in relation to QBO and solar cycle phase.
Does this not contradict the earlier comments about the vortex being very strong and cold because we are now in Smax/wQBO?
Full paper.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1029/2009RG000282/
thats why some of us were glued to the 10.7 solar flux. This winter was a Smax but it was still fairly low. And on top of that we had the strongest wqbo on record. Perhaps if the wqbo had not been as strong, the flux would have been sufficient, and it came pretty close to an official ssw, which considering the strength of the PV, was quite remarkable in itself
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/SVECSE2008/pdf/labitzke_svecse.pdf
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You are saying, then, that it is likely that summer will be as good as last year?
I know HLB is not the only factor, but you already know that HLB over Greenland means trough stuck like a limpet to the UK for summer.
he's basically saying that other forcings aside from the stratosphere influence our weather patterns in summer
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There are certianly inklings of a FW that could be quite strong and not as late as is possible with such a cold and dominant pv.
Recent strong mountain torque has introduced a strong burst of westerlies into the equation. A slight spike in AAM sending GWO into low amp phases 5-6-7. Wave 1 on the rise and likely to see yet another tag team with wave 2 into march. I suspect another round of strong MT is required?
Flux and temp forecasts suggestive of something similar to what we saw early Feb. This time round, of course, the PV/zonal winds are weaker so perhaps potential for a meatier FW that may finally cause some lasting damage to the beastly PV?
Of course, i'm well aware that most of us monitor the strat because we pin our hopes of sustained cold weather on these events and a FW isnt exactly terribly exciting from that POV. But i'm fascinated (as well as being equally frustrated) with this seasons remarkably strong PV and now my interests move towards how long into Spring it will persist etc etc, hence this post. As well as the likelihood that a strong FW will have implications on our April weather patterns.
We still have some way to go, but there are the subtlest of hints at this early stage?
Now if the FW does pan out favourably then I've got one eye on end march/early april 1967.
Lots of speculation, sorry!
EDIT: doh, just seen Chiono's post above...
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:wallbash: the cloud is breaking in the Irish Sea blinking typical why not over Land! 
It is too late, maybe Friday will be more considerate. We only have a short window, where the sun has a effect.
Community winter forecasts
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Here's my forecast for 15/16.
Too long to post in here properly, here's the link
https://londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1516/