[Far North Of England - Weather Chat]

Yes had a decent snow fall here so far and it's still going as we speak.  It began to lay almost immediately and there's a nice covering now.

[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

So...you have extra data?

 

No, I think his point is that it's a lot easier for Steve Murr to make a prediction about something than it is for the Met Office to do the same.  At the end of the day he is just a guy posting on a weather forum and they are a professional organisation with a reputation to uphold.

 

Someone has already mentioned this but your sarky comments all the time are getting incredibly tedious.  This is model output discussion and I very rarely see you post anything other than silly one liners.  As you're a member of the forum team maybe you should be following the forum rules a little bit closer yourself?  

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

It's all about trends....

Recent mid-late FIs have featured a weakening vortex, little or no Canadian/Greenland PV to speak of, a southerly jet and a high latitude block setting up somewhere between Scandi and Greenland. All things we want to see. Werreting about the exact location of such blocks at this range is futile.

Lol my follow up question was going to be about focusing on trends rather than specifics but you've already answered it so cheers.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

I'm really just learning all this stuff so if this is nonsense please feel free to tell me but doesn't the GFS show a shortish northerly/northeasterly blast around the 4th/5th Feb followed by the HP setting up shop over the UK and channelling the colder air into Europe? For those that want cold/wintry weather wouldn't that HP need to be further North and West to deliver? These are the charts I'm referring to, hope they link correctly:

Short blast:

HP setting up shop over UK:

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

What I don't understand is...when a freeze is shown at 240 on the models people urge caution and act as though everyone on this is 5 years old and are unable to think for themselves. However, when zonal is shown at 240 sheer panic sets in and folk try to push it as being the likely outcome! Very bizarre!

Just a balance of probabilities I think mate. Zonal is more likely than a big freeze so people will more readily accept it when it appears in the models. Also the people that want cold probably try not to get their hopes up when it shows up for fear of having them dashed.

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.]

Been following this site for years, can't read an ECM from a GFS but when Winter starts i come on this model thread in the hope that i might once again see the experts predicting that we are on of the verge of another 81 Winter, i really thought this time having read all the comments about the Strat that this was it, we were on the verge of something special, i have to agree with SM, many posts even by the senior peeps on here were massively ramped, yes it's certainly an improvement on recent years but God how difficult is that, is this the best we can produce now in this country even when all the elements are in our favour ! Still wait in hope that some of the more extreme models may come to fruition but i really feel that we need to see a major change in world weather patterns to experience the winters we had had in the 70's and 80's, lay mens point of view,

I don't think the senior people on here massively ramped anything. They simply gave their opinion and explained the potential. It's other people who have taken those posts and ramped them to a point where I think some people were expecting something akin to The Day After Tomorrow. Unfortunately, if you come on here hoping to see something then whatever the outcome is you will always have a subjective view of it rather than an objective view. That tendency for a lack of objectivity is shared by a number of other members here and that filters through to their analysis. So we get the slightly childish winter is over posts a few weeks ago despite the fact we were only a month into it and obviously we now have a cold spell bringing some decent snow and cold to most of us. From what I can see the senior people on here don't fall into that category.

[Uk General Convective Discussion & Forecasts, 10th October 2012>]

Got very dark here on Teesside about half an hour ago and then we had a decent hail shower along with thunder. Still thundering now but no more hail.